The 2015 Popularity Contest (aka UK General Election )

[roydo]

Poll out this morning from TNS-BMRB showing the Tories consolidating their polling position

CON 34 (+2)
LAB 33 (=)
LIB 7 (-1)
UKIP 15 (=)
GRN 5 (=)

Labour need to go on the attack and avoid this turning into any greater shift in preferences prior to the weekend - at which point I think whatever the polls say will be pretty final.

These polls UK wide Dave?

 

[The Esk]

Almost zero growth in productivity:

Many of new employment positions are self-employed

 

[The Esk]

Small recovery in household incomes

Indebtedness continues:

 

[Joey66]

So much for the post 2010 election talk of retooling the economy and becoming less reliant on the financial services sector.

Yes , and Labour in 2010 had growth at 4% - Tory dogma and manipulation of the figures of so much employment yet tax revenues drop - proves its all poor pay, or Zero hour contracts! or working for your benefit in most apprenticeships!

 

[davek]

These polls UK wide Dave?

Must be England and Wales if there's no Plaid/SNP.

 

[Tree13]

For the sake of argument, you have five kids. You hit hard times and you are going to have to re-budget. You calculate that if you take everything away from the youngest 2 so that they have no food or clothing and you take away the clothing from the next 2, then the remaining child will not only be fed and clothed, but can actually eat out at restaurants in a new outfits every week.

As the person in charge of the budget with responsibility for the welfare of your children would you?

The true problem here is having five kids, surely? How badly wrong at budgeting do you have to be to think that you can raise five children comfortably over a thirty year period when in fact you can just about afford two over twenty years? Rearing a child has got to be the single most significant decision in anyone's life, so why on earth hamstring yourself right at the start by knocking out number five when your eldest has just started junior school?

Too many people fail to save / plan for a rainy day when times are good and, consequently, find themselves massively overstretched when times turn not so good. I simply cannot fathom how on earth they reach such obviously flawed decisions.

 

[degsy]

The above chart demonstrates how uneven the current "recovery" is. It is clear from the above as to why so few people have actually felt any real benefit even from the depths of the recession.

Oi, You, NO!. This is a proper GOT debate NO FACTS PLEASE.

 

[The Esk]

My posts above from the following report: Beneath the bonnet: How sound is Britain's recovery? by the New Policy Institute

http://npi.org.uk/publications/economic-policy/beneath-bonnet-how-sound-britains-economic-recovery/

 

[roydo]

Its all pretty aneamic isnt it? Pretty much a statistical rounding error, give or take a bit.

 

[davek]

Yes , and Labour in 2010 had growth at 4% - Tory dogma and manipulation of the figures of so much employment yet tax revenues drop - proves its all poor pay, or Zero hour contracts! or working for your benefit in most apprenticeships!

The Tory economic boast is almost entirely on the basis of pointing to stagnation in the EU.

"Tuppence looking down on tuppence ha'penny" as the old saying goes.

 

[roydo]

Must be England and Wales if there's no Plaid/SNP.

Yeah, or asked what party which is standing nationally maybe.

I just have a feeling that come polling day, the UKIP vote wont turn up. Absolutely no facts to back that up, just a feeling, or a faint hope!

 

[peteblue]

Not sure the UKIP breakthrough has really gained much traction myself. Sure, they will pick up votes, possibly from all 3 main parties, but I would be astonished if they and the Tories get enough to form a coalition.

More chance of a Tory/LD repeat than that. And that is looking pretty unlikely as well.

But a week to go, so all to play for still.

I think this is probably the likely outcome. Labour will have one more seat in Scotland than the Conservatives so effectively start with minus forty something. The potential link to the SNP does not play well in England, which is why Labour won't mention it, and will give the conservatives a couple of extra seats. A Tory/LD government will probably be the outcome......

 

[1966efc]

As much as I hate to write this, I think I D S is genuinely committed to the cause of revitalising communities. His problem is lack of vision; of "lived" experience of poorer communities and, sadly, lack of a first class brain.

 

[davek]

Its all pretty aneamic isnt it? Pretty much a statistical rounding error, give or take a bit.

The polls are with the usual 3% margin of error, yes. But the trend is with consistent Tory leads, so that's going to be a worry for Labour.

As said before: if the Tories are pegged back to a couple of % points victory next Thursday that is not enough to govern with anything like stability. My hunch as always been that 'we go again' in the autumn. That's still the likely outcome, imo. But the Tories are on a charge and the media pushing of their SNP threat agenda is bearing some fruit. That said, these economic figures wont have many people too hopeful that their living standards ae going to get better in a hurry and that might be a factor working against the Tory momentum in the next few days.

 

[The Esk]

The Tory economic boast is almost entirely on the basis of pointing to stagnation in the EU.

"Tuppence looking down on tuppence ha'penny" as the old saying goes.

Erm mate isn't the saying Tuppence ha'penny looking down on tuppence ?