The EU deal

[Bruce Wayne]

That is one of the points I was alluding to earlier Bruce,out of the money paid in to the EU funding,I think the last figures I seen said around £52m is given to universities for scientific research purposes, and I wonder how things like that will be altered by exiting

I don't have the figures to hand, but a number of scientific figures have come out in favour of remaining in recent weeks, and I know things like Horizon 2020 is a major funder of scientific research. For me though, the bigger cost would be in perception. I know the 'leave' folks say that they want to carry on working with Europe, just outside the EU, but I do wonder if Europe feels the same way, or whether it's a bit like dumping your girlfriend and then asking to stay friends. There at least seems to be a risk that Europe would regard us leaving as us saying we don't really want anything to do with Europe.

Of course, in reality that's kind of impossible, so I'm sure in the long-term things would work out alright as they'd frankly have to figure something out, but in the short-term it's really uncertain. There's little insight, for instance, on what happens to EU citizens living and working here. Do they need to 'apply for their own jobs' so to speak and make their case to remain? How would this mesh with those who have contracts with an employer? Similarly, how are British citizens abroad going to be treated?

Whilst I appreciate that these are complex things, you would imagine that how things unfold would have a baring on whether people vote in/out. I'm not a fan of the whole referendum itself for largely this reason as I'm not at all sure that people have anywhere enough insight to really make an informed decision, and that's a terrible way to decide on something so important.

But before the 1970s, when the UK entered, the UK was a hotbed of global scientific research and development - just look at the nationalities that worked at Manchester Uni on atomic structure and nuclear physics. My point is that all these successes are not down to the EU at all, and it would not stop if we left the EU. It seems a non sequitur to me to hang global scientific success purely on the existence of an economic structure involving European countries. The US seems to do well in science too - and they're not part of the EU.

No, of course, and I'm not suggesting 'in the EU = scientific nirvana/out of the EU = scientific wilderness', not at all. What I am saying however is that most research now is 'recombinative', or in other words, it builds on what has gone before. It really pays, therefore, to have an openness in terms of people and ideas flowing easily around the place. If we're saying "lets leave the EU but keep the free movement of people", then that would certainly support that, but I'm not sure we are, are we?

Re the US, of course, they do exceptionally well in terms of science for many of the reasons I mentioned before about own success. Indeed, the likes of MIT are world leaders in commercialising research, but that hasn't stopped http://www.fwd.us/ being created by the tech industry to try and make it easier for them to attract the talent they need. That kind of suggests to me that governments are not the right people to be managing the flow of people.

 

[daylightrobber]

Dont really think im asking for cold hard facts i am asking for some one to say why the reasons for staying or leaving are going to impact on us,example those wanting out often quote" if we exit we save x amount of billions that could build x amount of schools or hospitals" now we know the money wont be used for them purposes so is that saving going to be used to help the people who need it most or squirreled away intil it can be used to give the most benefit to those least needing it

OK, as posted earlier in the thread, here is a given for impact if we were to leave....... (edited slightly)

The Treaty of the European Union is an agreement which sets out the very foundation of how the 28 member states of the EU work and cooperate together. It was part written by the UK and part drafted by UK lawyers.

When the treaty was drawn up it was agreed by all Member States that the EU would create the "EU Common External Tariff Regime" for countries outside the EU that wanted to to trade with EU businesses. Different tariffs were put in place for different product types. Higher for products the EU didn't/doesn't desperately need and lower for the things it desperately does (e.g. energy for example - which explains why Norway get such a good deal as around half of Norway's exports to the EU is oil and gas).

If we were to tear up our membership card by leaving the EU, Article 50 of the Treaty comes into force. It says that a country that notifies the EU it is leaving will be terminating all membership agreements 24 months after notification. If this happens (potentially summer 2018) the UK will automatically operate under the external tariff regime that the UK helped to draft and fully signed up to.

The ONLY way this could be changed is if the Treaty is changed. This requires the agreement of all remaining 27 countries. Many of whom have a referendum lock if there are any changes to the Treaty. It just isn't feasibly possible to have all the necessary referendums and treaty change agreed by heads of state of 27 nations across Europe in the 2 year time limit.

Meanwhile to be fair, we could continue to renegotiate the 4,500 plus different product groups that we trade with the EU to try and get lower tariffs on the things we buy and sell. But it is widely acknowledged that this could take as much as a decade (or longer if other trade negotiations are any guide).

The UK becoming a part of the EU Tariff Regime (which meets WTO guidelines) is automatic if we elect to leave and there is nothing that any one member state, or indeed the UK can do about it.

I present this as fact, no doubt the Leave camp will suggest it's fear. They will claim that we can trade better outside the EU, but they are yet to advise how that will work, or if the issues that will arise 2 years after leaving can be negated fast enough to avoid plunging us into another financial mess.

 

[Seathestars]

In an ideal world yes, they would. We can see in America however that the tech companies there have significant grievances with the immigration restrictions as they can't attract the talent they want.

It seems possible that a vote to leave will be followed with a toughening up on immigration, which may well do the same here.

America is just a few hundred years old yet is one of the most advanced nations in the world, if not the most advanced.

This argument holds no weight.

 

[peteblue]

Isn't that a little disingenuous though Pete? I could have sworn when we had a thread on Greece that you were firmly in the 'they lived outside their means and should get real' camp (I paraphrase for brevity). Baring in mind the only real thing that unites extreme left and right is that they blame outsiders for their problems (whether the Troika or immigrants), would you be happy if Syreza type parties sprung up throughout southern Europe? Would you be happy if UKIP style parties sprung up throughout central/northern Europe?

You have to ask the questions, why does UKIP or whoever even exist. Why does a party called the UK Independence Party get any support. The answer is that someone else is undermining the basic fabric of nation sates for their own benefit, in this case the EU. I don't hold with this blame attribution, but I do believe that uncontrolled immigration does no one any benefit. Why do our politicians have to spend more time dealing with issues about Europe or Greece or whoever instead of looking to improve our country, which is what they are paid to do. The Eu will lead to tears no matter how we vote and I'd rather not be part of it, we have enough problems of our own to sort out.........

 

[Bruce Wayne]

America is just a few hundred years old yet is one of the most advanced nations in the world, if not the most advanced.

This argument holds no weight.

It isn't black/white is it? It's not a case of saying we will revert to the stone ages if we do xyz. Of course America is incredibly advanced in many ways, but that has not stopped many of their leading technology companies setting up a group to plead for easier immigration rules so that they can recruit the talent they need to grow. That isn't saying that those companies are rubbish or not advanced or whatever, but it is saying they themselves are saying we want to bring in more people from abroad and government quotas stop us doing that.

It just seems possible to me that if we vote to leave then a more heavy handed approach to immigration will result and a similar situation could arise here too.

 

[Whistlin' Dixie]

we have enough problems of our own to sort out

Enough of them are of our own Govt's making, Pete. I want out meself - but I also want the clowns we have in our own government out, too.

Some of the 'out' campaigners I hope never to see in the commons.

 

[Whistlin' Dixie]

It isn't black/white is it? It's not a case of saying we will revert to the stone ages if we do xyz. Of course America is incredibly advanced in many ways, but that has not stopped many of their leading technology companies setting up a group to plead for easier immigration rules so that they can recruit the talent they need to grow. That isn't saying that those companies are rubbish or not advanced or whatever, but it is saying they themselves are saying we want to bring in more people from abroad and government quotas stop us doing that.

It just seems possible to me that if we vote to leave then a more heavy handed approach to immigration will result and a similar situation could arise here too.

Again, Bruce, this smacks of looking after corporate interests rather than national ones.

 

[peteblue]

OK, as posted earlier in the thread, here is a given for impact if we were to leave....... (edited slightly)



I present this as fact, no doubt the Leave camp will suggest it's fear. They will claim that we can trade better outside the EU, but they are yet to advise how that will work, or if the issues that will arise 2 years after leaving can be negated fast enough to avoid plunging us into another financial mess.

How do other people trade with the EU ? More importantly, how will the EU trade with us considering they sell more to us than we do to them ? The Germans will still want to sell us BMW's, so deals will be done and quickly. Do you really believe that Germany and France will suddenly stop trading with us because we are no longer in their club. Realpolitik will kick in the moment we leave. Deals will done and life will move forward. The project fear brigade are only frightening themselves......

 

[jaycee]

You have to ask the questions, why does UKIP or whoever even exist. Why does a party called the UK Independence Party get any support. The answer is that someone else is undermining the basic fabric of nation sates for their own benefit, in this case the EU. I don't hold with this blame attribution, but I do believe that uncontrolled immigration does no one any benefit. Why do our politicians have to spend more time dealing with issues about Europe or Greece or whoever instead of looking to improve our country, which is what they are paid to do. The Eu will lead to tears no matter how we vote and I'd rather not be part of it, we have enough problems of our own to sort out.........

You could ask why parties such as Britain 1st,the BNP or NF have existed,its to play on peoples fears,we have our own problems to sort out and yet the EU have given roughly €2 billion to the Merseyside region where as a government decided to put the city into engineered decline,there is no way any party be it tory,labour or UKIP would invest that amount here

 

[Seathestars]

You have to ask the questions, why does UKIP or whoever even exist. Why does a party called the UK Independence Party get any support. The answer is that someone else is undermining the basic fabric of nation sates for their own benefit, in this case the EU. I don't hold with this blame attribution, but I do believe that uncontrolled immigration does no one any benefit. Why do our politicians have to spend more time dealing with issues about Europe or Greece or whoever instead of looking to improve our country, which is what they are paid to do. The Eu will lead to tears no matter how we vote and I'd rather not be part of it, we have enough problems of our own to sort out.........

I agree
The EU is possibly one of the most racist organisations in the world.
Why are people allowed free movement if they are a member state, yet anyone from Africa, South America, the far East, or anywhere outside the EU have to apply for a visa and go through the rigmarole of trying to get here to make a better life for themselves.
Why is it not done on merit and who deserves to come here whether you're an EU citizen or not.
What's good for the Goose is good for the Gander, regardless of where you were born.

 

[Bruce Wayne]

You have to ask the questions, why does UKIP or whoever even exist. Why does a party called the UK Independence Party get any support. The answer is that someone else is undermining the basic fabric of nation sates for their own benefit, in this case the EU. I don't hold with this blame attribution, but I do believe that uncontrolled immigration does no one any benefit. Why do our politicians have to spend more time dealing with issues about Europe or Greece or whoever instead of looking to improve our country, which is what they are paid to do. The Eu will lead to tears no matter how we vote and I'd rather not be part of it, we have enough problems of our own to sort out.........

In my opinion, UKIP and other populist parties of whatever stripe exist because their constituents are suffering financially, socially or whatever, and these groups emerge to say that this situation has emerged because of some external force. On the left, the boogeyman is capitalism or the Troika. On the right, the boogeyman is migrants. Whatever the argument, it attempts to absolve those actually in the situation of any responsibility for their own plight. Sure, it's attractive, but I'm not sure its right.

Regarding the migration issue, if we're discussing this on self-determination lines, then surely the natural conclusion is that the only people that have any say on where someone should choose to reside is that person, and the person/s that is supporting them in that endeavour (usually an employer). In a self-determined world, it's not really anyone else's business, is it?

 

[peteblue]

You could ask why parties such as Britain 1st,the BNP or NF have existed,its to play on peoples fears,we have our own problems to sort out and yet the EU have given roughly €2 billion to the Merseyside region where as a government decided to put the city into engineered decline,there is no way any party be it tory,labour or UKIP would invest that amount here

So if the Chinese offered to give Merseyside €3 Billion then you'd prefer us to be ruled From Beijing.....funny old world.....

 

[Bruce Wayne]

Again, Bruce, this smacks of looking after corporate interests rather than national ones.

I'm not sure what the difference is to be honest.

 

[Whistlin' Dixie]

So if the Chinese offered to give Merseyside €3 Billion then you'd prefer us to be ruled From Beijing.....funny old world.....

Well gidiot's apparently got £bn's for the northern sh1tpowerhouse project - I'm not happy with him holding the purse strings & making laws.

 

[jaycee]

So if the Chinese offered to give Merseyside €3 Billion then you'd prefer us to be ruled From Beijing.....funny old world.....

Ever thought of becoming a politician Pete?