magicjuan
Player Valuation: £60m
Polite question, what was Keith Harris doing for Bill Kenwright?
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Polite question, what was Keith Harris doing for Bill Kenwright?
Chang Elephant
Forum God
You've just come straight in and wiped your arse on FLHD's argument ?
magicjuan
Player Valuation: £60m
Chang Elephant
Forum God
A very good thingIs that a good thing?
davek
Player Valuation: £150m
No I'm not. I'm asking if you support the proposition of hiring a third party to advise Everton about a sale - as Liverpool did through PWC. BTW, that's not quite the same as asking a mate to come up with a friendly set of conclusions that basically warns we're better off bowling along under Bill and co's familiar regime.
Woolly Blue
Player Valuation: £80m
So, ignoring the stuff about the BU above, you basically have some common ground with what Dave's saying below ...
That's what needs to happen if the fans are going to have any influence. Blues have to find some common ground on what possible ways forward there are. To get a sizeable % of the fanbase on board then there will have to be some compromises.
davek
Player Valuation: £150m
...which isn't to say that I think the owners would be amenable to it (I'm quite sure they'll go on ignoring requests to sell/dilute their share ownership whilst they have wriggle room to do so). IMO, there'd have to be Johnson-style open revolt for them to be frightened into it. We're way off that point, although there is a lot of anger and frustration.
The Esk
Player Valuation: £70m
In order to persuade the owner of equity in a company to sell his or her stake in the company you have to do one of two things.
(i) Offer a price in excess of their expectation of the value of the equity, or
(ii) offer an exchange of equity for a currency of greater value - ie persuade the owners that the cash you offer now is greater than the future cash value of the equity.
(i) is usually expensive and (ii) whilst cheaper, much more difficult to achieve.
In the case of Everton the argument must be that cash received now has greater value than cash received in the future.
Why? Because without investment the equity value of Everton can only fall in the future.
(i) Offer a price in excess of their expectation of the value of the equity, or
(ii) offer an exchange of equity for a currency of greater value - ie persuade the owners that the cash you offer now is greater than the future cash value of the equity.
(i) is usually expensive and (ii) whilst cheaper, much more difficult to achieve.
In the case of Everton the argument must be that cash received now has greater value than cash received in the future.
Why? Because without investment the equity value of Everton can only fall in the future.
BoysInBlue
Player Valuation: £50m
Keeping his spirits up with a fine display of ventriloquism, I'd imagine.
Woolly Blue
Player Valuation: £80m
BoysInBlue
Player Valuation: £50m
Woolly Blue
Player Valuation: £80m
Not totally convinced of that.
I reckon the realistic ( ie market ) equity value is likely to rise for a couple more years ( classic bubble in many ways ), but the boards view of the value will still be above that so they'll keep hanging on for just a bit more profit ( greed basically )
I'm also pretty much convinced that within five or six years we'll either have new owners or the existing ones will be diluted.
Doubtless I'll be vaulted on this by someone in 2020/21 !
For me, the weird thing is that the asture businessmen on the board can't see the reality. In some ways I can understand Earl, because Everton is a relatively small part of his empire, but the only explanation for Bill I can come up with is he's so in love with being Chairman of his club that he's full on in ostrich mode.
The Equaliser
Player Valuation: £50m
Bill has so many people tuned into his "isn't it just great to be an Evertonian" philosophy it's untrue. In other words "dwell on the history and standing of the club and feel that you are special and you won't feeling anything about it's present predicament." It is football anaesthesia.
I'll always remember he came out with those words after a few hardy fans attended the CL qualifying draw in the summer of 2005. "We're just glad to be here, isn't it wonderful..."
After the KD fiasco, the dumbing down process was in full swing. And was set to continue..
I'll always remember he came out with those words after a few hardy fans attended the CL qualifying draw in the summer of 2005. "We're just glad to be here, isn't it wonderful..."
After the KD fiasco, the dumbing down process was in full swing. And was set to continue..
The Esk
Player Valuation: £70m
If you have £100 today and I have £10 (for argument's sake) then you are £90 better off than me.
We both invest and return 10% p.a. over 2 years.
You have £121 and I have £12.10. You are now £108.90 richer than me despite us both achieving the same investment return. You've gained by £18.90.
That's what's happening in football currently and why the value of Everton's equity is greater today than it will be in the future without further investment because of the size of the balance sheet relative to competitors.
Your greater gain in absolute terms means I (Everton) am (are) less competitive than I (they) was 2 years ago, thus the reduction in value of equity.
If I'm wrong please vault me too
Woolly Blue
Player Valuation: £80m
If you have £100 today and I have £10 (for argument's sake) then you are £90 better off than me.
We both invest and return 10% p.a. over 2 years.
You have £121 and I have £12.10. You are now £108.90 richer than me despite us both achieving the same investment return. You've gained by £18.90.
That's what's happening in football currently and why the value of Everton's equity is greater today than it will be in the future without further investment because of the size of the balance sheet relative to competitors.
Your greater gain in absolute terms means I (Everton) am (are) less competitive than I (they) was 2 years ago, thus the reduction in value of equity.
If I'm wrong please vault me too
Where's Adversus when you need him ffs !
I get your point but you're oversimplifying things. Yes, relatively Everton will be less investable. All other things being equal that would, or should, mean a drop in equity value, but you're ignoring the fact that, on average, all Premier League clubs are likely to increase in value so the sector is likely to outperform. The other thing that may well influence Everton's equity is that while it's in the Premier League and vaguely competive, it's one of the few clubs left that is realistically available for purchase.
I know I'm stating the obvious and trying to teach me gran how to suck eggs but, even so ... Rule #1 of the markets, they always overshoot on the up and overcompensate on the downs.
All you say makes perfect sense from a business and accountancy perspective, but you're pretty much ignoring the emotional side of investing in a football club in that it's a rich mans plaything which is almost impossible to justify in terms of profit or ROCI / ROCE.
TL;DR ?
I'm clueless really.
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