Who's your money on in the takeover 'battle'?

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I know we all want this sorting as soon as possible and we hope we end up with the owners we deserve. But, playing devil's advocate here, would it be a total disaster if it dragged out for a few more months and we got the right owners and had money to spend in January? Assuming we shift Onana and get no more points deducted, I think Dyche and the current squad have enough about them to be well clear of the drop zone at Christmas (some will disagree obviously). I'd settle for being in that position with the right people in the board room entering 2025. IMHO, of course.
 
This is my big concern. Bell and Downing as blues are supposed to be the “good guys”, the guys we can trust. And they knew what they were doing with the briefings about Dell, and it was wilfully misleading. Not a great start.

I've read in the last couple of days (might have been here or elsewhere) that they were Kenwright acolytes/apologists. Anyone know more about this? Presumably quotes out there?
 
The first season he went in he spent a bit, the last few have been sales and frees/loans (Lukaku was a loan)

2019/2020 spent £117 income £107m
2020/2021 spent £75 income £49m
2021/22 spent £114m income £17m
2022/23 spent £9m income £73m
2023/24 spent £19m income £83m

We will see what happens I have concerns with all the interested parties tbh, none have actually said what their plans are for the club, either short term or long term and Id like to know a bit more about that stuff.

Investment isn't just transfers though. The figure I could see in press/social is €900m+, a record amount for Roma and apparently "from his own pocket". Seems at odds with asset stripping - they were/continue to struggle with FFP too.

Me too regarding concerns - though I wouldn't expect/trust any to be sharing those visions yet. Though to be fair, I'd ignore it all anyway - for me, trust is earned through actions. Its why I try and look a bit at the history of potential owners.
 
While it's not the esk as he would obviously be bigging up Bell and Downing, I'd still be worried about anyone using his numbers as a base to start from. As he's a Barcelona fan perhaps we can call him El Esk.

Anyone who thinks a deal will be sorted before the end of June would be mad, seeing how long the PL take to do things.

You say this, but he has been advocating administration for a long time. Whichever party he is involved with, he’s clearly been provided to us as a bellweather to soften the fanbase up to the idea of administration so they can therefore purchase the club on the cheap. As I said, if he is involved with any particular party here, then I want that party to have nothing to do with the football club whatsoever. Because they are the true sharks in the water in this whole thing. They are the ones who want administration.

Esk is a snake and traitor to this football club, and his party does not have the best interests of the club at heart. We need to be wary of him and anyone he’s associated with.
 
Credit to some lad on Reddit:


__________________________________________________________________________________________

Hello Evertonians! I am an FC Barcelona fan, based in Los Angeles, who works in Sports Finance. My neighbor and his wife, who are Evertonians, came over to chat and understand what’s up with the club. It's Saturday night here, and I didn't have anything better to do, so I dug into things.

I will try to simplify things from what I read and the conversations I have heard. I am not involved with the buyout but know folks who are. It's a much smaller industry where everyone knows everyone.

Here we go.

The Debt

  • £159 million – MSP Sports Capital
  • £225 million – Rights and Media Funding
  • £4-5 million – Metro Bank
  • £190 million – 777 Partners (Inherited by A Cap)
  • £450 million – Moshiri Shareholder Loans
MSP Sports Capital has two distinct security arrangements:

  • Assets of Everton Stadium Development Company Limited. This means that in default, MSP can acquire the new stadium to recover their loan. Slightly complicated to explain, but Andy Bell, George Downing, and Moshiri through Blue Sky Capital are also funders of this project.
  • Alternatively, MSP has an option to acquire 50 per cent plus one share of Everton’s issued share capital, which would give MSP majority control over Everton Football Club.
Rights and Media Funding is a five-year rolling credit facility. Think of this as something similar to a credit card. Here is where you get conflicting information. A significant discrepancy in reporting, which in my opinion can be a dealbreaker. A few outlets report this loan is secured by future payments from transfers/media, etc. I likely believe it is secured against Everton’s bank accounts, fixed charges over Everton’s property portfolio (near Goodison Park), and a floating charge over all other unencumbered assets. (Shoutout to The Esk, he is an absolute gem). This RMF debt accrues a 10.25% interest.

These are the loans that Everton will have to pay regardless as they are secured well.

Loans to 777 Partners (Inherited by A Cap) are likely junior to these two loans. In any bankruptcy event, MSP and RMF get paid first before 777 Partners and Moshiri. However, A Cap says their loan is secured and they are senior creditors of the club, which would put them at the same level as MSP and RMF.

The Timing

Something that came up in the chatter was the timing of this takeover. It is interesting as Everton is due to receive prize money payments from the league which are stood at £133 million. This is the money the club receives from the overall competition commercial pool, which is distributed to all the teams, based on a few things, for example, their position in the league table at the end of the season.

Folks involved in financing other clubs have said this payment likely hits before 30th June. There is another payment due in August/September which is the first tranche of payments from the league. (Unsure on this one, but this is what I heard, payment flows vary a lot).

Despite the timing, the payments would go only so far in helping the club and were likely factored in during takeover talks. My bet is the takeover is likely to complete before 30th June, or at least a structure is agreed upon. 30th June is the deadline used for accessing Premier League Profit & Sustainability Rules (PSR) compliance.

If deals can be done before that “deadline”, they fall within transfers for the 2023/24 season and are included in the club’s financial accounts for last season, rather than moving into the new campaign. If the plan of the new owners is to recapitalize the team, pay down some debt, and sell players to avoid another PSR violation penalty, my bet is the deal gets done before June 30th.

The Sale

The Buyers As of today, June 8 11:00 pm PDT, here are the potential suitors:

  • Andy Bell, George Downing, backed by BDT & MSD Partners (More on this later)
  • A consortium led by MSP Sports Capital
  • Vatche Manoukian and Investors from Gulf and USA
  • John Textor, founder of Eagle Football, owns 45% of Crystal Palace
  • Dan Friedkin, Owner of AS Roma
Hear rumblings of another group, but almost everyone is looking to finance the takeover using debt along with equity. Many suitors will be willing to provide debt-based financing for the purchase, hence allegiances are bound to change.

The Possibilities

Here are the things that can happen. I am simplifying this to the bare minimums. The actual deals are complicated af and take months to put up and months to complete.

Possibility I: New Owner comes in, pays all debt, and recapitalizes the team

Highly unlikely. The Premier League is a lucrative league for almost every single private equity investor. It’s the league that is expected to continue to grow and firms take less downside risk when buying a team versus a team in a league like Serie A.

However, this would cost any new owner over £1 billion. My bet it costs somewhere around £1.3 billion. Deals of this size happen, but Everton is in a unique position and negotiating from a position of weakness. In my opinion, only someone in the Middle East or a single buyer would be able to pull this through. No one in private equity would commit to this, as they are all answerable to their investors.

Simply put, Everton is not worth £1.3 billion.

Possibility II: New Owner comes in and negotiates with creditors

A likely option. In this case, a new owner comes in and negotiates with the creditors to either forego some of this debt or restructure it over an extremely long period of time at low rates. This would make Everton a more lucrative option. However, the club would still owe a lot of money over the long run and will be paying interest on that loan.

This would mean Everton is run like a lean machine for a few years, with fewer resources going towards things like player transfers, etc. It would, however, still be able to stay afloat.

Possibility III: MSP Capital exercise the option to take majority control of Everton

Another likely option. More likely than Possibility II. MSP Capital takes majority control and would, in all honesty, look to buy out Moshiri. They will need a lot of capital, and they are already pulling strings, putting up their stake in FC Augsburg for sale last week. MSP buy out Moshiri, restructure some of the debt, and put up some more capital. They would likely clear the RMF loan first.

The managing partner of MSP Sports Capital, Jeff Moorad, was a professor of mine in a class I took at UCLA. He is an absolute beast, and an amazing dude to hang with. Unbiased view, MSP is actually highly respected in the industry, and widely regarded as having a razor sharp approach to finance.

They are known to take long positions, but I think Everton would likely be a position they hold for the short term, IF they go alone on this deal. (This is my take, not Professor Moorad). It would be akin to what Elliott Investment Management did with AC Milan when their Chinese owners backed out. They would step in, stabilize the ship, hope the new stadium attracts enough new commercial and matchday revenue, and sell the team to another buyer recovering some of their investment. What Elliott did with AC Milan was absolutely legendary, and in no world would Gerry Cardinale and RedBird have bought AC Milan had Elliott not done its job.

INSIDE INFO HERE: I cannot reveal others in the MSP Sports Capital consortium. Texted a former colleague who is at the firm that are bidders with MSP. If the consortium is agreed upon, MSP comes in with others, who are capable of buying majority control, and running Everton over the long term. MSP in this case would still retain a minority stake. The new stadium holds the key to this deal.

Possibility IV: Everton goes into administration

Cannot rate this option or its likelihood. Let me walk you through this. Administration is a major taboo in the football world, but something extremely common in finance. It is a way for a firm to basically restructure its debt and get back to good health. It does not mean the club ceases to exist.

The preferred way that things are done is through a method called ‘company voluntary arrangement’ (CVA). In a CVA, a deal is put forth, which creditors vote on, usually giving them less money than they are owed, with voting power decided based on seniority. In this case, MSP and RMF would get more votes in the say versus A-Cap and Moshiri.

CVAs are extremely common in the EFL and other leagues, with advisory firms literally minting millions every year, doing nothing but advising teams here. In the Premier League, only Portsmouth has ever gone into administration. Going into administration would see 9 points being docked at the start of next season for Everton.

The Pros of this approach:

  • Everton sheds a ton of debt. This would make it extremely attractive for someone to buy the club.
  • The reduced debt will likely be restructured over the long run, hence a free-spending owner coming in can actually devote more money to things like rebuilding the squad, enhancing facilities, hiring more staffers, and growing the club.
The Cons:

  • A ton of people likely get fired at Everton, as the club must break even.
  • The club cannot spend any more money on signings. They may even sell players.
  • Local businesses are affected the most, these are folks who provide things like catering services, produce, florists, etc.
  • The Big Kahuna: Going into administration can trigger certain clauses in player contracts that allow them to leave for free. I have seen it happen with teams in the EFL, but the situation remains subjective. Any player with such a clause would need assurances from the new owners before the takeover is complete.
There are some speculations online as this being the preferred way in for new owners. I doubt it, but the threat of administration is enough for even the world’s biggest banks/financiers to come to the negotiating table. Every possible new owner would hold this gun over Moshiri’s head, to get him to agree to a deal, and forgo as much of his loans.

Some Questions I think are FAQs

Is Michael Dell buying Everton?


No, Michael Dell is not buying Everton. Michael Dell’s family office is DFO Management, which was formerly known as MSD Capital. MSD Capital was Michael Dell’s family office, meaning it exclusively invested his money. However, in 2009, MSD Capital opened up to outside investors and became an investment firm of its own. In 2023, MSD merged with BDT to create BDT+MSD, the firm that is backing the Bell and Downing bid.

They do still invest some of Dell’s money, and Dell may be their biggest investor, but as far as I know, BDT is huge itself, managing some of the capital from the Walton Family (Walmart), the Pritzkers, and the Mars Family. BDT’s founder, Byron Trott, is worth about $3.2 billion alone. Trott is considered a legend at Goldman, where he helped Buffett structure his investment in Goldman Sachs during the financial crisis of 2008. One of my ex-bosses worked at Goldman during this period under Trott’s team and considers him a legend, even saying he single-handedly saved Goldman Sachs by convincing Buffett to invest and structuring some wild deals.

One thing I know for sure is BDT+MSD would likely pursue a debt-based financing structure. They are not built to go heavy into equity-based financing for sports teams. BDT+MSD have already done a bunch of debt-based deals; Everton won’t be different. In the scenario where Bell and Downing succeed in taking over, Everton would likely owe a lot of money to BDT+MSD.

Would Bell and Downing with BDT+MSD make sense?

My take here is no. Running a football club is no joke. Even though Bell and Downing being Evertonians makes it ideal, I am not entirely convinced of their ability to run a team. Everton would still be severely constrained financially, as they would owe money to BDT+MSD, and Bell and Downing wouldn’t be able to pump a lot of cash into the business from their end.

There is nothing that guarantees Everton will not see the same scenario as it does now, three years after Bell and Downing take over. Private equity folks make sense, as they come in knowing they may know other clubs but don’t know much about Everton. They will, by default, bring on Evertonians on the board, and will have much more incentive to run it over the long term, as the only way they see a return is through actually growing the club economically, which only means a better Everton on and off the pitch.

Are BDT+MSD backing only Bell and Downing?

No, BDT+MSD are free to back anyone in the contention. They are committing to debt-based financing, so as long as the buyer is credible enough, they should have no problem going ahead. Considering they are backing Bell and Downing, I would be surprised if others in the race did not get better financing terms.

As I said, allegiances in debt-based financing are fluid. The hard truth here is BDT+MSD would likely be calling up other potential buyers who bid to see if BDT+MSD can provide financing for their deal. Debt-based financing for a Premier League club is pretty much a dream scenario for any firm, as the underlying asset securing the loan is more stable than in other deals.

Simply put, BDT+MSD are not competing with other potential buyers; they are competing with firms like JP Morgan, Sixth Street, Ares, Arctos, etc., who may want to front one of the buyers.

What’s up with A-Capital?

I do not know. Conflicting things online. I doubt A-Capital will get to invest anything more in Everton, through debt or through equity. I also read that their financial position is under question as the rating they rely on no longer reflects their financial standing. However, I still do not know what there position is.

Who do I want to see win the bid?

Biased towards MSP Sports Partners because of Jeff Moorad. If they pull the consortium through, and the other investors take over the majority club, all I can say is Everton would be lucky. That being said, there are plenty of other people willing to buy Everton with MSP. As of now, the one most likely, along with MSP, would be a dream scenario.

Also, it wont take time for someone entirely new to emerge as a suitor. That is how consortium works. People are surprised, but its literally like texting friends to pitch in and creating a group chat. Things happen over Telegram/Whatsapp/Signal. My boss had once raised $xxx million for a deal texting the LP in the deal. The conversation went along these lines.

Prospectus sent over Mail + WhatsApp

My Boss : What do you think?

LP : $xxx m 👍

LP : Jeff also $xx m and Jake $xx m 🤝🤝

I can bet there are plenty of group chats of potential consortiums that may enter bidding. Everton FC is low-key a bargain, the debt will eventually get restructured. There are plenty of more messy restructurings that have happened in Finance before. Creditors eventually cave, but its a dogfight.

Enough written. Feel free to drop any Qs you may have, I will answer them to the best of my ability and knowledge of Everton’s finances. Massive shout to The Esk. The guy seems incredibly passionate about Everton.

I really hope you guys pull through, I know you will.

He forgot to mention the Fortress fund money :D
 

In the scenario where Bell and Downing succeed in taking over, Everton would likely owe a lot of money to BDT+MSD.

Would Bell and Downing with BDT+MSD make sense?

My take here is no. Running a football club is no joke. Even though Bell and Downing being Evertonians makes it ideal, I am not entirely convinced of their ability to run a team. Everton would still be severely constrained financially, as they would owe money to BDT+MSD, and Bell and Downing wouldn’t be able to pump a lot of cash into the business from their end.

There is nothing that guarantees Everton will not see the same scenario as it does now, three years after Bell and Downing take over.

^ From the Reddit post was my reading and my opinion I've shared on here - except "being Evertonians makes it ideal." I think we put too much stake into that.

If Bell/Downing weren't Evertonians, I think they'd get short thrift.
 
That is quite clearly the Esk. Still chatting on about administration and implying that it’s a likely possibility, and not one but TWO “shoutouts to the Esk” in the article at the beginning and also the end. “Hope you guys pull through”, get in the bin. We will be sold and we will be fine, and he is fuming at the prospect. Creating anonymous accounts on Reddit to back himself up, what an absolutely weird melt he is.
Yes. MSP and Jeff Moorad are indeed highly respected in the sports financing industry. Do they have boots on the ground in the UK to execute a new ‘transformation program, likely not. Is there a well meaning experienced Evertonian with a career background in such transformation (so he says) who is also U.S. based and could help with such work? These guys are not dummies so if they do retain him, they will do their DD first.

Stranger things have happened.
 
Does "with backing from the Dell family office " lead most people to conclude that
A. Dell himself is going to take a shareholding or
B. The Dell family office will loan B&D the money to complete the deal.

My initial impression,and it hasn't changed is B.

I'm not sure what in the initial statement leads anyone, thinking logically, to conclude that Dell himself was in board.

"Backing" & stating "MSB have Sports Management expertise"

Point directly to A.

This seems to be really bothering you for some reason so why don't you go on twitter and actually ask him what he meant by it?

I dont use twitter / fb etc

I think Paul Brown is probably spot on in his assessment.

One point that is maybe being missed here is that if we believe Bearded Scotsman MSP have traction with other lenders (RMD & ACap) cooperating. Through Joyce/others we also hear that RMF seem prepared to cooperate with B&D with ACap (ex 777) and MSP presumably replaced with BDT-MSD.

This willingness of existing lenders to cooperate and even collaborate is the biggest shift since the 777 SPA expired vs a year ago. IMO this is driven both by changes in our situation (stayed up despite points deductions, stadium nearing completion) and theirs (ACap under $ pressure due to over-exposure to 777).

Whatever the reasons it is welcome to see more interest and more rapid movement than expected. I just wish I trusted Moshiri’s judgement more.
Why would MSP have traction with R&M as they blocked them before? Unless ive misunderstood your post.

So Joyce is saying MSD replace the MSP loan while 777 + 2 evertonians loans remain?

Most of these prospective owners will be the same as refinancing. Unless there is a bid that says they will clear all the debts on completion.

The question is what rate is that refinancing deal at and how much the club will have to pay pa to service it?

If Bell and Downing are taking a loan from MSD at 12% that includes a 2% kick back for them for arranging it then it's not particularly great for the club and would show they are more interested in making money from Everton. If Dell was directly involved and said we can borrow the money at 2.5% and Dell are going to sponsor Bramley Moore for 250 million over 10 years then it is going to good for the club.

Without knowing the detail it's impossible to say who is better for the club.

This is why the Dell link, if not an actual equity shareholding outcome will leave a sour taste in many mouths.


Was surprised by this opinion - so had to sense check as I recalled when they signed Lukaku and afterwards about no owner ever having invested so much into Roma and so, I can't agree with that assessment.

They were in the mire and he's definitely turned them around;


View attachment 260096


Friedkin is an asset stripper though, very little has gone into Roma since he went there, they sell players and don't replace them, they chucked all their eggs in the Mourinho basket basically.


Friedkin's Roma brought in €25mil approx net in transfers in year 1. Year 2 they spent €100mil which seems exciting but years 3 and 4 they brought in around €120mil through sales.

So, overall hes not invested into the squad and in fact there has been cost cutting overall there I think.

As for the purchase which was around €550mil and now @GrandOldTeam is quoting that hes invested €900mil+

Where has the investment gone? Not the team so...can only assume existing debts?
 

I did Google it and there’s no quotes that match anything you have claimed…


Thats a general one I searched by simply typing Friedkin Roma -- others will have the quotes. Not sure what i typed to find them, but they are there ;)

The first season he went in he spent a bit, the last few have been sales and frees/loans (Lukaku was a loan)

2019/2020 spent £117 income £107m
2020/2021 spent £75 income £49m
2021/22 spent £114m income £17m
2022/23 spent £9m income £73m
2023/24 spent £19m income £83m

We will see what happens I have concerns with all the interested parties tbh, none have actually said what their plans are for the club, either short term or long term and Id like to know a bit more about that stuff.

Thought he took over in 2020 but in anycase I see the same.

Investment isn't just transfers though. The figure I could see in press/social is €900m+, a record amount for Roma and apparently "from his own pocket". Seems at odds with asset stripping - they were/continue to struggle with FFP too.

Me too regarding concerns - though I wouldn't expect/trust any to be sharing those visions yet. Though to be fair, I'd ignore it all anyway - for me, trust is earned through actions. Its why I try and look a bit at the history of potential owners.

Depends if hes just paid off existing loans out of his own pocket as the poor management of the club (under him) has made the interest payments too high.

You say this, but he has been advocating administration for a long time. Whichever party he is involved with, he’s clearly been provided to us as a bellweather to soften the fanbase up to the idea of administration so they can therefore purchase the club on the cheap. As I said, if he is involved with any particular party here, then I want that party to have nothing to do with the football club whatsoever. Because they are the true sharks in the water in this whole thing. They are the ones who want administration.

Esk is a snake and traitor to this football club, and his party does not have the best interests of the club at heart. We need to be wary of him and anyone he’s associated with.

Nice to read someone say this!

^ From the Reddit post was my reading and my opinion I've shared on here - except "being Evertonians makes it ideal." I think we put too much stake into that.

If Bell/Downing weren't Evertonians, I think they'd get short thrift.

Their bid should ALL depend on MSB taking equity. If not it should be rejected but of course Moshiri will take (as he should) the best offer.
 
No idea what’s going on with the new owners but surely there’s a balance between intelligence and sheer investment (as Moshiri has proven). Until PSR goes away we’re operating under constraints and any new owner has to work intelligently within these in recruitment, commercial deals, choice of manager, everything. We can have the richest owner in the world who wants to bring Guardiola and Mbappe to us but the reality is he can’t even if he wants to. We need smart owners who aren’t looking for a play thing but to create a long term realistic plan to get us back in amongst the elite, not another dreamer like Moshiri.
 
"Backing" & stating "MSB have Sports Management expertise"

Point directly to A.



I dont use twitter / fb etc


Why would MSP have traction with R&M as they blocked them before? Unless ive misunderstood your post.

So Joyce is saying MSD replace the MSP loan while 777 + 2 evertonians loans remain?



This is why the Dell link, if not an actual equity shareholding outcome will leave a sour taste in many mouths.








Friedkin's Roma brought in €25mil approx net in transfers in year 1. Year 2 they spent €100mil which seems exciting but years 3 and 4 they brought in around €120mil through sales.

So, overall hes not invested into the squad and in fact there has been cost cutting overall there I think.

As for the purchase which was around €550mil and now @GrandOldTeam is quoting that hes invested €900mil+

Where has the investment gone? Not the team so...can only assume existing debts?

Football isn't just transfers. And as I said - Roma also have FFP challenges.

They intend to move to a new stadium too, which they need to get a wiggle on with.

Also, Saudi PIF apparently interested in Roma so he could end up selling up there.
 
Seems a Moshiri line of spending. Someone puts in a load of cash hoping for success, finds it's much more difficult than expected and then tries to recoup as much as possible thereafter.
The thing about Moshiri’s initial spending as well that we recouped circa £140m from the sale of Stones and Lukaku so the spend was not quite as big as has been frequently reported
 
Credit to some lad on Reddit:


__________________________________________________________________________________________

Hello Evertonians! I am an FC Barcelona fan, based in Los Angeles, who works in Sports Finance. My neighbor and his wife, who are Evertonians, came over to chat and understand what’s up with the club. It's Saturday night here, and I didn't have anything better to do, so I dug into things.

I will try to simplify things from what I read and the conversations I have heard. I am not involved with the buyout but know folks who are. It's a much smaller industry where everyone knows everyone.

Here we go.

The Debt

  • £159 million – MSP Sports Capital
  • £225 million – Rights and Media Funding
  • £4-5 million – Metro Bank
  • £190 million – 777 Partners (Inherited by A Cap)
  • £450 million – Moshiri Shareholder Loans
MSP Sports Capital has two distinct security arrangements:

  • Assets of Everton Stadium Development Company Limited. This means that in default, MSP can acquire the new stadium to recover their loan. Slightly complicated to explain, but Andy Bell, George Downing, and Moshiri through Blue Sky Capital are also funders of this project.
  • Alternatively, MSP has an option to acquire 50 per cent plus one share of Everton’s issued share capital, which would give MSP majority control over Everton Football Club.
Rights and Media Funding is a five-year rolling credit facility. Think of this as something similar to a credit card. Here is where you get conflicting information. A significant discrepancy in reporting, which in my opinion can be a dealbreaker. A few outlets report this loan is secured by future payments from transfers/media, etc. I likely believe it is secured against Everton’s bank accounts, fixed charges over Everton’s property portfolio (near Goodison Park), and a floating charge over all other unencumbered assets. (Shoutout to The Esk, he is an absolute gem). This RMF debt accrues a 10.25% interest.

These are the loans that Everton will have to pay regardless as they are secured well.

Loans to 777 Partners (Inherited by A Cap) are likely junior to these two loans. In any bankruptcy event, MSP and RMF get paid first before 777 Partners and Moshiri. However, A Cap says their loan is secured and they are senior creditors of the club, which would put them at the same level as MSP and RMF.

The Timing

Something that came up in the chatter was the timing of this takeover. It is interesting as Everton is due to receive prize money payments from the league which are stood at £133 million. This is the money the club receives from the overall competition commercial pool, which is distributed to all the teams, based on a few things, for example, their position in the league table at the end of the season.

Folks involved in financing other clubs have said this payment likely hits before 30th June. There is another payment due in August/September which is the first tranche of payments from the league. (Unsure on this one, but this is what I heard, payment flows vary a lot).

Despite the timing, the payments would go only so far in helping the club and were likely factored in during takeover talks. My bet is the takeover is likely to complete before 30th June, or at least a structure is agreed upon. 30th June is the deadline used for accessing Premier League Profit & Sustainability Rules (PSR) compliance.

If deals can be done before that “deadline”, they fall within transfers for the 2023/24 season and are included in the club’s financial accounts for last season, rather than moving into the new campaign. If the plan of the new owners is to recapitalize the team, pay down some debt, and sell players to avoid another PSR violation penalty, my bet is the deal gets done before June 30th.

The Sale

The Buyers As of today, June 8 11:00 pm PDT, here are the potential suitors:

  • Andy Bell, George Downing, backed by BDT & MSD Partners (More on this later)
  • A consortium led by MSP Sports Capital
  • Vatche Manoukian and Investors from Gulf and USA
  • John Textor, founder of Eagle Football, owns 45% of Crystal Palace
  • Dan Friedkin, Owner of AS Roma
Hear rumblings of another group, but almost everyone is looking to finance the takeover using debt along with equity. Many suitors will be willing to provide debt-based financing for the purchase, hence allegiances are bound to change.

The Possibilities

Here are the things that can happen. I am simplifying this to the bare minimums. The actual deals are complicated af and take months to put up and months to complete.

Possibility I: New Owner comes in, pays all debt, and recapitalizes the team

Highly unlikely. The Premier League is a lucrative league for almost every single private equity investor. It’s the league that is expected to continue to grow and firms take less downside risk when buying a team versus a team in a league like Serie A.

However, this would cost any new owner over £1 billion. My bet it costs somewhere around £1.3 billion. Deals of this size happen, but Everton is in a unique position and negotiating from a position of weakness. In my opinion, only someone in the Middle East or a single buyer would be able to pull this through. No one in private equity would commit to this, as they are all answerable to their investors.

Simply put, Everton is not worth £1.3 billion.

Possibility II: New Owner comes in and negotiates with creditors

A likely option. In this case, a new owner comes in and negotiates with the creditors to either forego some of this debt or restructure it over an extremely long period of time at low rates. This would make Everton a more lucrative option. However, the club would still owe a lot of money over the long run and will be paying interest on that loan.

This would mean Everton is run like a lean machine for a few years, with fewer resources going towards things like player transfers, etc. It would, however, still be able to stay afloat.

Possibility III: MSP Capital exercise the option to take majority control of Everton

Another likely option. More likely than Possibility II. MSP Capital takes majority control and would, in all honesty, look to buy out Moshiri. They will need a lot of capital, and they are already pulling strings, putting up their stake in FC Augsburg for sale last week. MSP buy out Moshiri, restructure some of the debt, and put up some more capital. They would likely clear the RMF loan first.

The managing partner of MSP Sports Capital, Jeff Moorad, was a professor of mine in a class I took at UCLA. He is an absolute beast, and an amazing dude to hang with. Unbiased view, MSP is actually highly respected in the industry, and widely regarded as having a razor sharp approach to finance.

They are known to take long positions, but I think Everton would likely be a position they hold for the short term, IF they go alone on this deal. (This is my take, not Professor Moorad). It would be akin to what Elliott Investment Management did with AC Milan when their Chinese owners backed out. They would step in, stabilize the ship, hope the new stadium attracts enough new commercial and matchday revenue, and sell the team to another buyer recovering some of their investment. What Elliott did with AC Milan was absolutely legendary, and in no world would Gerry Cardinale and RedBird have bought AC Milan had Elliott not done its job.

INSIDE INFO HERE: I cannot reveal others in the MSP Sports Capital consortium. Texted a former colleague who is at the firm that are bidders with MSP. If the consortium is agreed upon, MSP comes in with others, who are capable of buying majority control, and running Everton over the long term. MSP in this case would still retain a minority stake. The new stadium holds the key to this deal.

Possibility IV: Everton goes into administration

Cannot rate this option or its likelihood. Let me walk you through this. Administration is a major taboo in the football world, but something extremely common in finance. It is a way for a firm to basically restructure its debt and get back to good health. It does not mean the club ceases to exist.

The preferred way that things are done is through a method called ‘company voluntary arrangement’ (CVA). In a CVA, a deal is put forth, which creditors vote on, usually giving them less money than they are owed, with voting power decided based on seniority. In this case, MSP and RMF would get more votes in the say versus A-Cap and Moshiri.

CVAs are extremely common in the EFL and other leagues, with advisory firms literally minting millions every year, doing nothing but advising teams here. In the Premier League, only Portsmouth has ever gone into administration. Going into administration would see 9 points being docked at the start of next season for Everton.

The Pros of this approach:

  • Everton sheds a ton of debt. This would make it extremely attractive for someone to buy the club.
  • The reduced debt will likely be restructured over the long run, hence a free-spending owner coming in can actually devote more money to things like rebuilding the squad, enhancing facilities, hiring more staffers, and growing the club.
The Cons:

  • A ton of people likely get fired at Everton, as the club must break even.
  • The club cannot spend any more money on signings. They may even sell players.
  • Local businesses are affected the most, these are folks who provide things like catering services, produce, florists, etc.
  • The Big Kahuna: Going into administration can trigger certain clauses in player contracts that allow them to leave for free. I have seen it happen with teams in the EFL, but the situation remains subjective. Any player with such a clause would need assurances from the new owners before the takeover is complete.
There are some speculations online as this being the preferred way in for new owners. I doubt it, but the threat of administration is enough for even the world’s biggest banks/financiers to come to the negotiating table. Every possible new owner would hold this gun over Moshiri’s head, to get him to agree to a deal, and forgo as much of his loans.

Some Questions I think are FAQs

Is Michael Dell buying Everton?


No, Michael Dell is not buying Everton. Michael Dell’s family office is DFO Management, which was formerly known as MSD Capital. MSD Capital was Michael Dell’s family office, meaning it exclusively invested his money. However, in 2009, MSD Capital opened up to outside investors and became an investment firm of its own. In 2023, MSD merged with BDT to create BDT+MSD, the firm that is backing the Bell and Downing bid.

They do still invest some of Dell’s money, and Dell may be their biggest investor, but as far as I know, BDT is huge itself, managing some of the capital from the Walton Family (Walmart), the Pritzkers, and the Mars Family. BDT’s founder, Byron Trott, is worth about $3.2 billion alone. Trott is considered a legend at Goldman, where he helped Buffett structure his investment in Goldman Sachs during the financial crisis of 2008. One of my ex-bosses worked at Goldman during this period under Trott’s team and considers him a legend, even saying he single-handedly saved Goldman Sachs by convincing Buffett to invest and structuring some wild deals.

One thing I know for sure is BDT+MSD would likely pursue a debt-based financing structure. They are not built to go heavy into equity-based financing for sports teams. BDT+MSD have already done a bunch of debt-based deals; Everton won’t be different. In the scenario where Bell and Downing succeed in taking over, Everton would likely owe a lot of money to BDT+MSD.

Would Bell and Downing with BDT+MSD make sense?

My take here is no. Running a football club is no joke. Even though Bell and Downing being Evertonians makes it ideal, I am not entirely convinced of their ability to run a team. Everton would still be severely constrained financially, as they would owe money to BDT+MSD, and Bell and Downing wouldn’t be able to pump a lot of cash into the business from their end.

There is nothing that guarantees Everton will not see the same scenario as it does now, three years after Bell and Downing take over. Private equity folks make sense, as they come in knowing they may know other clubs but don’t know much about Everton. They will, by default, bring on Evertonians on the board, and will have much more incentive to run it over the long term, as the only way they see a return is through actually growing the club economically, which only means a better Everton on and off the pitch.

Are BDT+MSD backing only Bell and Downing?

No, BDT+MSD are free to back anyone in the contention. They are committing to debt-based financing, so as long as the buyer is credible enough, they should have no problem going ahead. Considering they are backing Bell and Downing, I would be surprised if others in the race did not get better financing terms.

As I said, allegiances in debt-based financing are fluid. The hard truth here is BDT+MSD would likely be calling up other potential buyers who bid to see if BDT+MSD can provide financing for their deal. Debt-based financing for a Premier League club is pretty much a dream scenario for any firm, as the underlying asset securing the loan is more stable than in other deals.

Simply put, BDT+MSD are not competing with other potential buyers; they are competing with firms like JP Morgan, Sixth Street, Ares, Arctos, etc., who may want to front one of the buyers.

What’s up with A-Capital?

I do not know. Conflicting things online. I doubt A-Capital will get to invest anything more in Everton, through debt or through equity. I also read that their financial position is under question as the rating they rely on no longer reflects their financial standing. However, I still do not know what there position is.

Who do I want to see win the bid?

Biased towards MSP Sports Partners because of Jeff Moorad. If they pull the consortium through, and the other investors take over the majority club, all I can say is Everton would be lucky. That being said, there are plenty of other people willing to buy Everton with MSP. As of now, the one most likely, along with MSP, would be a dream scenario.

Also, it wont take time for someone entirely new to emerge as a suitor. That is how consortium works. People are surprised, but its literally like texting friends to pitch in and creating a group chat. Things happen over Telegram/Whatsapp/Signal. My boss had once raised $xxx million for a deal texting the LP in the deal. The conversation went along these lines.

Prospectus sent over Mail + WhatsApp

My Boss : What do you think?

LP : $xxx m 👍

LP : Jeff also $xx m and Jake $xx m 🤝🤝

I can bet there are plenty of group chats of potential consortiums that may enter bidding. Everton FC is low-key a bargain, the debt will eventually get restructured. There are plenty of more messy restructurings that have happened in Finance before. Creditors eventually cave, but its a dogfight.

Enough written. Feel free to drop any Qs you may have, I will answer them to the best of my ability and knowledge of Everton’s finances. Massive shout to The Esk. The guy seems incredibly passionate about Everton.

I really hope you guys pull through, I know you will.

Cba reading all that.
Anyone care to summarise into 3 lines?
 

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