Who's your money on in the takeover 'battle'?

[Kevsleftpeg]

Thanks, could you explain this point “ . An all equity bid only benefits Moshiri. Not Everton.“ ,
I’m struggling to get my head around “ all equity bid” your view seems different from others. Does “ all equity bid of £400m “ mean Moshiri gets virtually £400 m less the amount going to buying other share holders, but the debts still remain and need to be fixed. Does it mean that somehow £400 m buys the club and the debts which I saw somewhere, that appears fantastic but unrealistic. Or something else?

The sale price (I.e. any money Mosh actually receives) will be what it is regardless of whether it is funded by all equity or equity and debt. Each bidder will have a sources and uses. On a simplified basis the uses will be repayment of all existing debt plus interest, break costs and prepayment penalties (this amount will be the same for every bidder as they all have to repay the existing debt) and the second use will be payment of the purchase price to Moshiri (this will be the part that varies from bidder to bidder depending on what they think Everton is worth). The sources will be either equity or equity and debt. My statement that an all equity bidder is based on the working assumption that an all equity bidder will leverage Everton after completing the deal. I.e. they will borrow against the value of the club and repay part of their equity investment. So the club ends up with debt in every scenario. The all equity bid benefits Moshiri because it increases deal certainty/speed of execution because negotiation of a debt package and educating lenders on the business plan is a formal process and takes time.

 

[ashwuk76]

Makes sense actually, good point mate, paying off 777 & MSP and giving Moshiri his 40 mill.

Brings us to the Magic 400 mill number I mentioned earlier, 350 for Bell and Downing, as they have a 60 mill loan they can turn to equity.

That leaves R&M who are happy to sit there I’d imagine. Metro are being back year on year on a repayment plan, so not an issue.

You might have cracked the code here mate.

This what I said about 30 pages back. Glad you caught up

 

[kenada_blue]

He's going to pick whomever gives him the most money

That's all his motivation will be

777 certainly weren't and he was all in on them for 9 months

 

[Zatara]

The sale price (I.e. any money Mosh actually receives) will be what it is regardless of whether it is funded by all equity or equity and debt. Each bidder will have a sources and uses. On a simplified basis the uses will be repayment of all existing debt plus interest, break costs and prepayment penalties (this amount will be the same for every bidder as they all have to repay the existing debt) and the second use will be payment of the purchase price to Moshiri (this will be the part that varies from bidder to bidder depending on what they think Everton is worth). The sources will be either equity or equity and debt. My statement that an all equity bidder is based on the working assumption that an all equity bidder will leverage Everton after completing the deal. I.e. they will borrow against the value of the club and repay part of their equity investment. So the club ends up with debt in every scenario. The all equity bid benefits Moshiri because it increases deal certainty/speed of execution because negotiation of a debt package and educating lenders on the business plan is a formal process and takes time.

Based on this and the rumours...

Dell are already financing the 2 blues plans so in essence that to Moshiri is the same as Manoukian.

Were yet to hear about the others. But those 2 groups may be in the box seat.

 

[JP5]

It will almost certainly be immediately repayable upon a change of control. Repayment and refinancing aren’t different things. When it comes to repaying debt there are two options main options, repay the debt using borrowed money from the existing lender or a new lender (I.e. a refinancing) or repay the debt using cash on balance sheet/new equity). In our scenario where we need to delever (I.e. reduce the debt to equity ratio) I would assume it would be a combination of both because unless our debt comes down our financial situation won’t be improved.

You are assuming that all debt needs to be repaid when there is a change in control which is incorrect.

I know there is effectively no difference between repayment and refinancing.

I’m saying that it’s likely that any purchase will take on the 777 loan but not refinance until the stadium is closer to completion/operational as any loan will be on better terms. The loan can then be secured against stadium revenues and it’ll likely that rates will have fallen to a degree (but won’t go back to pre 2022 levels).

 

[navidson]

I'm still expecting Venky's to take over

 

[ashwuk76]

I'm still expecting Venky's to take over

Nah mate they are too chicken to take over a PL club....

 

[Rita_Poon]

The box seat of the russian or chinese sub?

With so much focus on the euro competition, is it likely that any official details of the sale if it happens at all will be after, only making any moves for squad strengthening put under even more duress?

 

[CielosGrises]

I'm still expecting Venky's to take over

Would spice things up.

 

[Neiler]

This what I said about 30 pages back. Glad you caught up

Good lad!

 

[davek]

I don’t see any questions at all. I see them trying to tell bidders who we are and why they should buy us. There’s no key questions in that letter such as;

What will you offer?
Will there be money for signings?
Where do you see the club in 5/10 years time?
Are we going to be loaded with debt?
Are you here for now or to sell us quickly to make a profit?

It looked more like a self-promotion exercise: "Look, we're a conduit through which you might want to garner support with the fans of this club if you're thinking of bidding, so you might well want to use us".

I have no time for that lot. They're a creation of bureaucracy and have had an early history of being far too close to promoting the needs of the Everton boardroom.

 

[ste d' indica]

There’s a difference between risking your own money and risking your fat Uzbek mate’s money.

Absolutely. In the first scenario you could end up sleeping under a motorway bridge.
In the second you could end up encased in one.

 

[ForeverEverton]

Is it really too much to ask that an eccentric billionaire comes in and pays off all the debt and fund the completion of the stadium build? Where are you Elon? Lets be having you.

Why couldn`t that be the case? You could buy and clear the debts with c£700m and keep that as owners/directors interest free loan.

In a year this club will be worth £1bn+, you`ve made £300m+ in 1 year whilst being able to grow the club and improve the team with the additional revenue the debts including interest was taking up monthly.

That is the quickest way a new wealthy owner could make an immediate impact, then when we do move to BMD we get a massive boost in revenue. Those borrowing and restructuring debt will be limiting cash due to the debts whilst negating some of the BMD increased revenue.

I think we will get a new owner like Manoukian that if you put £400m that may reduce the debt needing to be refinanced, on the face of it without knowing the details.

In this day and age I like the idea of moving to a tech based approach, in this day and age this will be by far the quickest way to grow revenue.

 

[ashwuk76]

Absolutely. In the first scenario you could end up sleeping under a motorway bridge.
In the second you could end up encased in one.

He probably prefers to have people swim with the fishes...

 

[blueloon]

The sale price (I.e. any money Mosh actually receives) will be what it is regardless of whether it is funded by all equity or equity and debt. Each bidder will have a sources and uses. On a simplified basis the uses will be repayment of all existing debt plus interest, break costs and prepayment penalties (this amount will be the same for every bidder as they all have to repay the existing debt) and the second use will be payment of the purchase price to Moshiri (this will be the part that varies from bidder to bidder depending on what they think Everton is worth). The sources will be either equity or equity and debt. My statement that an all equity bidder is based on the working assumption that an all equity bidder will leverage Everton after completing the deal. I.e. they will borrow against the value of the club and repay part of their equity investment. So the club ends up with debt in every scenario. The all equity bid benefits Moshiri because it increases deal certainty/speed of execution because negotiation of a debt package and educating lenders on the business plan is a formal process and takes time.

Thanks, interesting stuff which requires a bit of consideration. I see that Manoukian are now in the lead in the poll , obviously not as simple as thinking “ Oh, £400m all equity bid , that sounds good”.