Will we need 40 points ?

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We only ( i say only 😳) need 4 wins and 2 draws to ensure safety with 40 points, but could we survive with less than that ?
 
Taking us out of the equation, and using Leeds being the next placed team above relegation, their run rates suggests 36 points….there will be resurgence for some teams…..I think 39 points sees us safe, which would give us a 3 point margin above the current run rate which I believe is reasonable. In my opinion we need another 13 points
 

There are 9 teams who currently arent on points per game pace to get to 40. A few will pick up the pace in the run in but it’s hard to see how the majority get to 40. I wouldn’t be comfortable on 36 but it could do it.
 
Saw this on the BBC website the other day, they seem to think 37 would almost certainly guarantee staying up (the 7% one should be 33):
42C81469-B450-4FC2-9AE3-838709878F55.jpeg
 


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