Good assessment.
I honestly think this is the match of the tournament. Brazil ought to make their way to the final, and I think the winner of France / England is favourite to join them.
Struggling to see beyond it being France, but you make a good argument for where England might nick it.
I think some of the fresher English players are talented enough, young enough, and, therefore, ignorant enough to play with the kind of oblivious freedom that will make them very dangerous. The loss of Raheem - horrible as it is - would, in my view, be a blessing in disguise. I am not convinced he quite cuts it at the very top level. Kane will always be a threat and Pickford a potential match-winner. And never underestimate the arrogance or complacency of the French being a factor. They absolutely blew a 3-1 lead against a game Switzerland at the last European Championship, and the English lads will be game too, if nothing else.
I have France as favourites - Mbappe in full flight makes any team favourites - but England definitely have a shot. Historically, I'm not sure England fear the French in quite the same way they would a top level Germany or Italy side. Yes, Zidane at Euro 2004 worked the oracle, but only in the last minute. I recall 1982 as a great English win over a very good, albeit flawed, French side. Euro 2012 was a draw. Ditto Euro 92. England did beat France in 1966, so, you know, there is historical precedent.
The bigger point for me is can England win three epic encounters to win the World Cup. I would say that is a really tall order for any side - and even the French may fail to do that even if they win on Saturday - but you can only play one game at a time. The pressure in this one will be on the champions. Sure, they also have the experience and the comfort of knowing they are winners. England don't really know that - at least yet. But this is not an insurmountable task for England. France are favourites, but not by much.