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2021/22 Yerry Mina

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Yep I’ve come back around again on this. Unless we get someone else in he stays 100%. Replacing him would be ideal but otherwise we can’t afford it.
I know it's not particularly late in the window (we have over a month), but I would be concerned about selling him now and getting a suitable replacement.

Our current transfer dealings aren't standing out as either organised or attracting the best of talent, so on the balance of probability would we do it?

I think it's unlikely. We're a much better team with him in the XI although money talks and if a bid came in and his wages off the books it may be considered.
 
I know it's not particularly late in the window (we have over a month), but I would be concerned about selling him now and getting a suitable replacement.

Our current transfer dealings aren't standing out as either organised or attracting the best of talent, so on the balance of probability would we do it?

I think it's unlikely. We're a much better team with him in the XI although money talks and if a bid came in and his wages off the books it may be considered.
If we hypothetically freed up enough to make a midfield buy, it's a strong move since we otherwise get nothing when Mina moves on next summer.

It would all be contingent on having a loan plan for adding a CB to pair with Tarkowski. In general, we're making smarter moves. Vinagre is good cover, McNeil's crosses should pair well with an aerial striking setup, loaning Branthwaite to a top-flight club with a CB injury crisis to get him some minutes at that level is smart.
 

If we hypothetically freed up enough to make a midfield buy, it's a strong move since we otherwise get nothing when Mina moves on next summer.

It would all be contingent on having a loan plan for adding a CB to pair with Tarkowski. In general, we're making smarter moves. Vinagre is good cover, McNeil's crosses should pair well with an aerial striking setup, loaning Branthwaite to a top-flight club with a CB injury crisis to get him some minutes at that level is smart.
Aye, I get the point of potentially freeing up enough of a fee and wages to being able to (partly) fund two replacements. With structured deals, it'd help FFP too.

Nevertheless, I struggle to get past the point that he's our best central defender (maybe not now with Tarkowski) and I'd be concerned about weakening it further.

When he's in the squad, I think we're far more secure at the back and his savviness (snideness?) rattles teams, so after last season I want a solid, safe year.

Unless we are going to bring someone in who is a suitable replacement/even better or able to bring in a solid defender and midfielder, I'd be saying no.*

Your point about making smart moves is a good one though - Thelwell will be looking at beyond this season.

*Obviously if they offer silly money, bite their hand off.
 
Aye, I get the point of potentially freeing up enough of a fee and wages to being able to (partly) fund two replacements. With structured deals, it'd help FFP too.

Nevertheless, I struggle to get past the point that he's our best central defender (maybe not now with Tarkowski) and I'd be concerned about weakening it further.

When he's in the squad, I think we're far more secure at the back and his savviness (snideness?) rattles teams, so after last season I want a solid, safe year.

Unless we are going to bring someone in who is a suitable replacement/even better or able to bring in a solid defender and midfielder, I'd be saying no.*

You're point about making smart moves is a good one though - Thelwell will be looking at beyond this season.

*Obviously if they offer silly money, bite their hand off.
I think we're just looking at it a bit differently. I see all those expiring contracts next season and want to solve some long-term problems. I don't mind taking on a little risk to do it.

It's totally reasonable to just want to finish comfortably 12th. Risk preference is exactly that. I just think it puts us in position to struggle next season and the season afterward with depth and quality. I would rather cash in on an asset before its value slides all the way to zero, seeing how buying players that became liabilities with zero sell-on value is how we got into this mess.

To put that one another way, I'm thinking long-term, risk-neutral EV - which is generally how I think.
 

I think we're just looking at it a bit differently. I see all those expiring contracts next season and want to solve some long-term problems. I don't mind taking on a little risk to do it.

It's totally reasonable to just want to finish comfortably 12th. Risk preference is exactly that. I just think it puts us in position to struggle next season and the season afterward with depth and quality. I would rather cash in on an asset before its value slides all the way to zero, seeing how buying players that became liabilities with zero sell-on value is how we got into this mess.

To put that one another way, I'm thinking long-term, risk-neutral EV - which is generally how I think.
Yeah this is also one of the reasons I’m not on board with the idea of getting a load of players in on loan being the great solution some people think it is. If we end up trying to replace 3/4 loan players, plus Mina, Coleman, Allan, and maybe begovic without getting any money for any of them then it’s really not going to be easy.
 

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