2024/25 Relegation Battle (Without Everton!)

[Marius57]

It would take not 1, but 2 of the teams below us equalling their number of wins for the entire season while simultaneously we lose every game in the same amount of time. So no it easily can’t, and would in fact be a freak if it happened.

I mean, it’s essentially what we have just done.They don’t have to both have those runs at the same time for it to happen.

Saying that, I could see wolves winning a few on the bounce, but couldn’t see Ipswich or saints. And with how Leicester’s defence looked against us, I can’t see them winning much.

 

[windymiller]

Don't see Leicester doing anything under RVN, if they are sensible they will bin him off and get someone like Dyche to try and save them. It won't be easy though as they are woeful at the back.

This is why I don't think a Dyche-type manager helps Leicester, they just don't have the players to play the low block, low possession football that so many of those managers play. They've got some decent enough forwards but I just don't see them scoring enough to compensate for their defensive frailties. Which is good news for us!

 

[catcherintherye]

This is why I don't think a Dyche-type manager helps Leicester, they just don't have the players to play the low block, low possession football that so many of those managers play. They've got some decent enough forwards but I just don't see them scoring enough to compensate for their defensive frailties. Which is good news for us!

The thing with Dyche is he won't catch us. He's like a pragmatist who probably gets Leicester to say 30 points, or say 29-31 range. Under RVN they're not even getting that IMO.

The thing is though, us and our group of teams aren't important for them, they just have to get above Wolves. Dyche will give them a better chance than RVN of that. The problem is, they are running out of games.

 

[Toffe3m4n]

Think as long as we're still around 8-9 points away from the bottom three heading into late March we can then officially breathe easy.

 

[Lanolin]

I think we'll be fine and I said the other day I wouldn't be that surprised if the teams below us don't even catch up to our current points total, but it's not exactly totally implausible that we get sucked back in to some extent. For all the talk of increased PPG and tracking to finish on X points and whatever, all it actually boils down to is teams winning a couple of games when we lose and suddenly it's back to being squeaky bum time, it's not that complicated.

 

[Gilbert..]

This is why I don't think a Dyche-type manager helps Leicester, they just don't have the players to play the low block, low possession football that so many of those managers play. They've got some decent enough forwards but I just don't see them scoring enough to compensate for their defensive frailties. Which is good news for us!

He'd soon knock that out of them.

 

[windymiller]

The thing with Dyche is he won't catch us. He's like a pragmatist who probably gets Leicester to say 30 points, or say 29-31 range. Under RVN they're not even getting that IMO.

The thing is though, us and our group of teams aren't important for them, they just have to get above Wolves. Dyche will give them a better chance than RVN of that. The problem is, they are running out of games.

I think they're doomed no matter who is in charge. People talk a lot about our squad, and it is poor compared to previous squads and we are very light in certain positions, but we can actually put out a side that can defend, even Dyche managed that. Leicester's defenders are woeful, even Mourinho or Simeone would struggle to get those players functioning as a tight defensive unit. I was really surprised they didn't prioritise defenders in the January window, Wolves did and that's why it'll be Leicester joining Ipswich and Saints back in the Championship, imo.

 

[Lanolin]

I think they're doomed no matter who is in charge. People talk a lot about our squad, and it is poor compared to previous squads and we are very light in certain positions, but we can actually put out a side that can defend, even Dyche managed that. Leicester's defenders are woeful, even Mourinho or Simeone would struggle to get those players functioning as a tight defensive unit. I was really surprised they didn't prioritise defenders in the January window, Wolves did and that's why it'll be Leicester joining Ipswich and Saints back in the Championship, imo.

Their defending against us was genuinely astoundingly bad. Conceding 3 goals directly from passes from the opposition half takes some doing.

 

[badloaf]

I mean, it’s essentially what we have just done.They don’t have to both have those runs at the same time for it to happen.

Saying that, I could see wolves winning a few on the bounce, but couldn’t see Ipswich or saints. And with how Leicester’s defence looked against us, I can’t see them winning much.

I think we’re safe because, once again, there are three teams worse than us. We’ve probably done enough in these last few games to sort it. We only need to match their results to stay ahead and we’ll likely do better than that.

I’m now just looking for Moyes to give us a bit to celebrate in Goodison’s final season. Next league game would be a good start.

 

[catcherintherye]

Their defending against us was genuinely astoundingly bad. Conceding 3 goals directly from passes from the opposition half takes some doing.

In a way I think Dyche can kind of solve that quickly, but playing them deeper. The issue is that Faes is just not a Dyche centre back. And the lad they brought on at CB was about 5 ft 11. The left back was poor. So I mean, they can get a bit better but honestly it won't be good. And they will lose most attacking impetus as a compromise.

If I were them, I'd still do it as it looks their own option of catching Wolves for me. When Dyche came here it was post 35 points and hope. They are in a much worse situation than we were, I'd say they are at like trying to scramble to 30 and hope.

 

[catcherintherye]

I think we'll be fine and I said the other day I wouldn't be that surprised if the teams below us don't even catch up to our current points total, but it's not exactly totally implausible that we get sucked back in to some extent. For all the talk of increased PPG and tracking to finish on X points and whatever, all it actually boils down to is teams winning a couple of games when we lose and suddenly it's back to being squeaky bum time, it's not that complicated.

I see that mate, but honestly I also think most teams keep repeating roughly what they do.

It's funny though, as like I try to look at two things. My simple thing is look at the last 14 games (or remaining games left) see how many points and replicate. They both get to high 20s on that model. When I look at fixtures though, I honestly can't make a case for either of them to get more than about 7 points. Maybe that's just a bias, and as you say sides get unlikely wins sometimes.

They've both blown some quite plum fixtures though.

 

[Neiler]

I think we’re safe because, once again, there are three teams worse than us. We’ve probably done enough in these last few games to sort it. We only need to match their results to stay ahead and we’ll likely do better than that.

I’m now just looking for Moyes to give us a bit to celebrate in Goodison’s final season. Next league game would be a good start.

I never understand this point.

That's how relegation works.

Not getting at you particularly mate - but you often here people say the only reason we stayed up is there were three worse teams then us - well yeah!

 

[Lanolin]

I see that mate, but honestly I also think most teams keep repeating roughly what they do.

It's funny though, as like I try to look at two things. My simple thing is look at the last 14 games (or remaining games left) see how many points and replicate. They both get to high 20s on that model. When I look at fixtures though, I honestly can't make a case for either of them to get more than about 7 points. Maybe that's just a bias, and as you say sides get unlikely wins sometimes.

They've both blown some quite plum fixtures though.

Oh absolutely, the league generally doesn't lie so if you're in the bottom 3 at this stage there's a very good chance you're going to stay there.

What I mean though is it's not exactly beyond the realms of possibility that a team just picks up a couple of wins in quick succession even if they're still a bit crap overall. We didn't win for 13 games last season and then won 5 of the next 7, the season before Bournemouth were bottom at the start of March and virtually safe by the end of April because they won 6 out of 9. These things happen pretty regularly.

I think we'll be sound but like I say I think people are overcomplicating it a bit when really what we're saying is if we stumble a bit and lose the next 2 or 3 on the bounce and Leicester beat Brentford and West Ham then we're right back in the mix. When you look at it that way it's not that mad a shout. A managerial change somewhere or just increased confidence after getting a good result can change things quickly, as we've seen ourselves.

 

[b-rad]

I never understand this point.

That's how relegation works.

Not getting at you particularly mate - but you often here people say the only reason we stayed up is there were three worse teams then us - well yeah!

I think the point is that there were particularly bad teams in those years. In other years we would have been 19th or even 20th given our performances and results over a season.

35-40 points is usually the benchmark for safety, but in some years it is far less than that and we have benefitted from such years.

But if my auntie had balls…etc.

 

[mikel_88]

I think the point is that there were particularly bad teams in those years. In other years we would have been 19th or even 20th given our performances and results over a season.

35-40 points is usually the benchmark for safety, but in some years it is far less than that and we have benefitted from such years.

But if my auntie had balls…etc.

Yeah just for me we should have never been in it this season not saying be well clear but the squad was better than dyche has had here. With the power of being in the prem should be harder for teams coming up to stay up. Hopefully next season we will be clear