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The binman chronicles
Player Valuation: £80m
I get that the stadium would cost more to build if we started now, which is a positive. The value of the club however does not have a direct relationship to that though, so I don't think your new build house example is particularly relevant here.
If Moshiri signs a 250m naming rights deal for BM, the club manage to sell enough players to clear PSR but we still keep our best players in Branthwaite/Pickford/DCL and we add quality on the cheap, then we blitz the first few games of the season and sit on 20 points - the value of the club and Moshiri's negotiating position is a lot stronger regardless of the stadium.
Conversely if we sell all our best players on the cheap and still fail PSR due to a mountain of interest we don't know about, we get a points deduction for the postponed charge and then another later. We have a winless start to the season and sit rooted to the bottom of the table with fans in open revolt (or go into administration - not that I think it will happen but it's still an outside possibility) then the value of the club is going to be a lot lower despite the stadium nearing or have been completed at that point.
If we have a middle of the road couple of seasons and we move into BM as a PL club and after that first season at the new place the accounts show we have a positive 50 million balance because income has gone sky high with the extra matchday, concerts and other events, that'll show we are a sustainable club with a good basis to spring from and that's when the completed stadium really comes into its own. The numbers turn from estimates to actuals and the benefits are there for all to see.
BirkenheadBlue
Player Valuation: £70m
That wasn't really my point (though it's also true that the stadium would cost more if started now)...
My point is that the value of (and therefore the price to purchase) an asset (such as a house or a stadium) jumps at the moment of completion. So to labour the house metaphor - let's say a house costs 100k to build. The moment it's completed it's worth significantly more than 100k. If it's only half complete and the builders can't afford to complete it, you'd get it pretty close to the cost of build to that point.
Same with the stadium. It's likely to end up costing in the region of £700m to build. But *once complete* most estimates have valued it as a > £1 billion asset.
Martin Alvito
Player Valuation: £50m
Try selling it for that, though. Unlike a house, a stadium's value is driven by its tenants. If they fold or move, more often than not the ultimate outcome is demolition.
The club can gin up some paper shareholder equity by overvaluing the stadium if it wishes, but no one will pay that and no one will let the club borrow against it like that's the value.
Who wants to buy that stadium if not Everton, though?
It's not analogous to a house, which has any number of potential buyers or tenants.
BirkenheadBlue
Player Valuation: £70m
No. They're buying everton, which the stadium is a part of. The asset value of that stadium (and therefore of everton) jumps when it's completed.
You're the one comparing it to a house, and I'm telling you it's nothing like a house.
It's not transferable, except to a company that would want Everton as a tenant - and given the lack of alternative tenants in that scenario, they wouldn't be able to maximise rent, either.
Look, I want all our financial troubles to disappear when the stadium is completed - but that simply won't happen.
BirkenheadBlue
Player Valuation: £70m
I'm not saying all our problems will be solved. The asset value of the stadium will still increase once it's completed - if for no other reason than it can't generate any income until then. ANY capex asset's value increases above construction/build/manufacturing price once it is completed, it's not specific to houses or stadia. My sole point was that buying everton PRIOR to stadium completion will be cheaper than buying it POST stadium completion (and by more than whatever remains to be paid to complete - c.£50m)
The binman chronicles
Player Valuation: £80m
Unfortunately it's not going to make a bit of difference to the price of Everton on completion. Again Moshiri would just wait until that point if suddenly the price is guaranteed to rise to any meaningful degree. As I said we're dependant on other factors such are we likely to be a PL club. Is there wriggle room in the budget to make sure we are building up the squad to try and avoid that, not down to meet PSR (which we are still firmly are at the moment). Points deductions and alike.
If you think all that is overridden by the stadium completion (when we still have 8 months before playing there) and the club will be worth more regardless of all the other factors then that's your view, it's all opinions. Mine is that Textor or anyone else could possibly get the club for cheaper if it all falls apart and I stand by that. I hope they come in and lay the money down now and get on with it and we do well, my point was just he would be better coming in at least after the January transfer window as then he comes in with a clean slate with no baggage attached from what could be a nightmare season for us.
Martin Alvito
Player Valuation: £50m
Why?
The sale price of Everton will be the outcome of a bargaining process. Any prospective buyer with a lick of sense will dismiss a nonsense valuation of the stadium. If they're a bumbling idiot talking themselves into paying Moshiri's valuation, they're not who we need.
Completion would be worth what was paid, plus perhaps a small premium for reduction of uncertainty. It wouldn't be worth hundreds of millions of pounds for the seller. If it were, Moshiri would beg, borrow and steal every dime he could against personal assets to keep the club afloat and get the stadium built. The fact that he isn't indicates your thesis is incorrect.
But what kind of buyer wouldn’t factor that in?
We’re not talking about a derelict dock with a plan to build a stadium, we’re talking about a 90%+ complete build and a fairly clear idea of what’s required to complete it.
There won’t be a magical jump in value. The stadium being almost finished has baked in the value today.
14_dollars
Player Valuation: £8m
Alan Stubbs? It’s none of his business.
davids
Player Valuation: £60m
Think he's a supporter.
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