Can We Succeed Next Season Without Breaking FFP?

[hallamblue]

Have to agree to disagree then

I don't disagree, I just don't think it's Moshiri's style. He wants high profile signings that please his ego. I remember Lazio back in the day, wasting fortunes on players and managers and just throwing money at it until they stumbled across a good team almost by mistake and won the league. That's how Moshiri comes across to me.

 

[roy vernon]

I don't disagree, I just don't think it's Moshiri's style. He wants high profile signings that please his ego. I remember Lazio back in the day, wasting fortunes on players and managers and just throwing money at it until they stumbled across a good team almost by mistake and won the league. That's how Moshiri comes across to me.

Unfortunately, I think you may be right on Moshiri, but, at half a billion and counting, how long can he continue to throw good money after bad.

A huge change in the profile of players we sign is vital. As things stand, if Carlo pulls out, we are left with a terrible mess for the next man. I don't think the players Carlo has attracted would be happy to play here without him, and, they would be very difficult to move on.

All future signings should be bought with a view to be able to move them on, at a profit, or at least a break even, if it doesn't work out.

 

[Brisan123]

Well in my opinion, at the very least we need to sign players in the following areas:
- Back up or 1st choice GK
- RB
- CB
- CM x2
- RW/RF
- LW/LF
- CF to compete with DCL

The outlay on that is going to be huge. To keep cost down we are going to have to rely on some good scouting (do we have that?) but we can't just buy unheard of young players, we need some established players too.

So for arguments sake, if we go with what we've been linked with:
- One forward as Diaby or Bailey = £ 40 million at least
- Max Aarons = £30 million
- Rabiot = £25 million
- Pape Sarr = £ 20 million

Even if you then filled the other areas with cheaper options:
- The Wolfsburg homophobe = £10 million
- Dike = £15 million
- Romero = free.

You are still looking at an outlay of approximately £140 million. And I've not included a CB in that as we will have to sell one first to bring in another

We may be able to sell Kean for £30-40 million to bring that down, but we would be unlikely to get any money for any more of our dross, but let's say we managed to get in £15 million for some more fringe players etc.

Still reckon you are talking about £100 million outlay and we need to factor in wage bills etc. because we are still going to be left with loads of terrible players who no one wants that we have no use for.

And by the way, I am sure that most of these players would find the thought of playing for Everton laughable/horrific but I'm using them as examples because we have been linked with them.

I just don't see how we can do it without breaking FFP. Because we've been so badly run that the only way out of it I can see is to drop a load of cash again and hope our recruitment is better this time, which is madness. But I think if we just bring in 2 or 3 again, even if they are really good, we just finish between 8th and 12 th again and then we need to factor in the whole project unravelling. James and Allan needing replacing too, so the number of okay players reduces again etc.

Basically, if we don't break it I think we're screwed. But if we break it and get it wrong again, we'll do a Leeds circa 2004.

@Zatara meet @Dwight K Schrute

 

[Brisan123]

lol we will spend ffp is meaningless now

I have a feeling going on Carlos comments and the fact that Usmanov brought him here that it will be a big spend this year
The super league has frightened them into action
The financial impact of the pandemic on clubs all over Europe has made FFP meaningless
They will trust and want to back Carlo
I’d say 100m plus sales this summer and we might see a few shock outs
5/6 straight into first team

 

[catcherintherye]

I have a feeling going on Carlos comments and the fact that Usmanov brought him here that it will be a big spend this year
The super league has frightened them into action
The financial impact of the pandemic on clubs all over Europe has made FFP meaningless
They will trust and want to back Carlo
I’d say 100m plus sales this summer and we might see a few shock outs
5/6 straight into first team

Some lads are harder to move on, but we may accept certain types of loans. The one who I think may be told he can go, maybe at a slightly lower fee than before is Richarlison. If he is sulking, I think the old "unhappy players can leave" schtick could be aimed at him. Maybe the club say they will take 60m or whatever if a suitable buyer can be found.

I wonder this summer if Brands buys the 3 or 4 positions we need with up and coming targets (so RB, CM, RW) and Ancelotti gets what he wants in terms of 2-3 big names (Coutinho, Koulibaly, Bale etc). Fabrizio Romano who is very well sourced said we were 1 of 5 clubs to make contact with Spurs for Kane. While I can't see it having any chance of happening, it is not consistent with an approac that is overly cocnerned with FFP and spending.

It's interesting that normally at this stage of the season, there is quite a lot of pessimism on spending from all quarters, including from managers. Ancelotti hasn't gone down this route.

 

[Brisan123]

Some lads are harder to move on, but we may accept certain types of loans. The one who I think may be told he can go, maybe at a slightly lower fee than before is Richarlison. If he is sulking, I think the old "unhappy players can leave" schtick could be aimed at him. Maybe the club say they will take 60m or whatever if a suitable buyer can be found.

I wonder this summer if Brands buys the 3 or 4 positions we need with up and coming targets (so RB, CM, RW) and Ancelotti gets what he wants in terms of 2-3 big names (Coutinho, Koulibaly, Bale etc). Fabrizio Romano who is very well sourced said we were 1 of 5 clubs to make contact with Spurs for Kane. While I can't see it having any chance of happening, it is not consistent with an approac that is overly cocnerned with FFP and spending.

It's interesting that normally at this stage of the season, there is quite a lot of pessimism on spending from all quarters, including from managers. Ancelotti hasn't gone down this route.

If Carlo wants a root and branch culling of the squad I can see Moshiri / Usmanov giving him the finances to do it
For fear of going all @Zatara here
Pickford
RB CB Godfrey Digne
RW Allan CM LW
James DCL
That’s 5 plus a couple of back ups would not surprise me
We may see 3/4 first team regulars sold
Holgate -Mina -Davies - Ricarlison -Keane
Any 3 -4 of those plus Iwobi Delph JJK Gomes Siggy etc could be sold
Carlo will have had enough and will be ruthless
I have read a couple of his books and he never throws his players under the bus , he has broken his own rules by doing so this week
The time for evolution is over , revolution is required and Carlo knows this

 

[Zatara]

If Carlo wants a root and branch culling of the squad I can see Moshiri / Usmanov giving him the finances to do it
For fear of going all @Zatara here
Pickford
RB CB Godfrey Digne
RW Allan CM LW
James DCL
That’s 5 plus a couple of back ups would not surprise me
We may see 3/4 first team regulars sold
Holgate -Mina -Davies - Ricarlison -Keane
Any 3 -4 of those plus Iwobi Delph JJK Gomes Siggy etc could be sold
Carlo will have had enough and will be ruthless
I have read a couple of his books and he never throws his players under the bus , he has broken his own rules by doing so this week
The time for evolution is over , revolution is required and Carlo knows this

I dont think you can include James or Allan in a first 11 due to their age and injuries.

Pickford, Digne, Godfrey, Doucoure, DCL, Richarlison.

Screw FFP and spend £100mil +sales.

 

[Brisan123]

I dont think you can include James or Allan in a first 11 due to their age and injuries.

Pickford, Digne, Godfrey, Doucoure, DCL, Richarlison.

Screw FFP and spend £100mil +sales.

When fit James will always be the first name on the team sheet
He is miles above any other creative player in the squad
We would not attract any player with near his ability
That’s why I said a couple of back ups
Allan /Doucoure JPG ( hopefully ) and a new CM can fight it out for 2 midfield spots and a backup got James
Someone like Periera of WBA would still get 15-20 league games plus a few cup games every season as back up to James

 

[Zatara]

When fit James will always be the first name on the team sheet
He is miles above any other creative player in the squad
We would not attract any player with near his ability
That’s why I said a couple of back ups
Allan /Doucoure JPG ( hopefully ) and a new CM can fight it out for 2 midfield spots and a backup got James
Someone like Periera of WBA would still get 15-20 league games plus a few cup games every season as back up to James

We'd be better off having 5 starters for 3 attacking positions if we go 433.

Currently we have Richarlison, DCL and James....we need two more wide attackers.

 

[yakublue]

Why don't we stop trying to fix it all in one season?

Imagine if we'd invested all the money in promising players on an upward trajectory instead of buying players at their peak or past it

 

[OneTrueLegend]

Im not sure we can stay within FFP unless we sell some of the players we would actually like to keep. So people keep mentioning Leicester, but they forget that they sold; Mahrez, Kante, Drinkwater, Chilwell and Maguire for over £250m, so each year they sell one or two big players and then sign 4 players with the money. Then when 2 of those players work out, it looks like they have done fantastic business.

We have just not had many of our transfers work out over the last 4 years and we keep buying players at the top of their value. Its going to be really hard for us to do what Leicester have done. Lets say we manage to sell Kean for £45m, would be able to sign 2 players for that money, say a winger and striker? Same if we sold Calvert Lewin for £80m could we use that for 2/3 players that would go into the first team? Would people be happy with that or riot because we would still have some of the "deadwood" in the squad?

Personally I think we will only add 4 players to the squad in the summer, GK, CB, RB, RW. I think we will need more than that. but its my gut feeling.

 

[catcherintherye]

If Carlo wants a root and branch culling of the squad I can see Moshiri / Usmanov giving him the finances to do it
For fear of going all @Zatara here
Pickford
RB CB Godfrey Digne
RW Allan CM LW
James DCL
That’s 5 plus a couple of back ups would not surprise me
We may see 3/4 first team regulars sold
Holgate -Mina -Davies - Ricarlison -Keane
Any 3 -4 of those plus Iwobi Delph JJK Gomes Siggy etc could be sold
Carlo will have had enough and will be ruthless
I have read a couple of his books and he never throws his players under the bus , he has broken his own rules by doing so this week
The time for evolution is over , revolution is required and Carlo knows this

Yes I'd go along with a fair bit of that. Holgate is probably another like Richarlison who the "unhappy players can leave" comment may have been directed at. Essentially buck your ideas and attitude up or go.

I'd say the days of certain players thinking they were too good for the club will go, and not before time. I'd say Ancelotti feels let down by players he has given the benefit of the doubt too.

As a final thought, it may be players that we quite like end up going. That might be one consequence of this.

 

[Brisan123]

We'd be better off having 5 starters for 3 attacking positions if we go 433.

Currently we have Richarlison, DCL and James....we need two more wide attackers.

433 will only work with a RB who can defend as well as attack
James leaves the RB too exposed in a 433
Either the RB can really defend or the DM has to cover James when he doesn’t track back
I’d prefer James as a 10 with a quality CF or at the point of a midfield diamond
That’s why Carlo plays 3-5-2 to cover James defensive limitations ( plus our lack of wingers )
However I’m an old fart who grew up and still prefers 4-4-2 with 2 chalk on their boots wingers
The old Leeds team of the early 70s (Lorimer and Gray )or Dochertys United with Coppell and Hill were a joy to watch

 

[Brisan123]

Yes I'd go along with a fair bit of that. Holgate is probably another like Richarlison who the "unhappy players can leave" comment may have been directed at. Essentially buck your ideas and attitude up or go.

I'd say the days of certain players thinking they were too good for the club will go, and not before time. I'd say Ancelotti feels let down by players he has given the benefit of the doubt too.

As a final thought, it may be players that we quite like end up going. That might be one consequence of this.

If they don’t want to be here than goodbye
Even as a coach of schoolboy teams I learned that
They don’t train well , don’t put in 100% effort when playing and are generally sniping in the dressing room
I’d keep Coleman over Holgate if Holgate is not happy
At least for all his limitations due to age and injury Coleman gives 100%
A promoted team would gladly pay 20-25 m for Holgate , an experienced versatile PL defender ,

 

[brieverton]

Our biggest issue as I see it is spreading the budget amongst the optimal number of signings Carlo would like to make.

We go into every summer saying we need six players or thereabouts.

We can't spend £30-40m on six problem areas, FFP or not.

So the opening premise means we have to settle. Before we do anything.

What concerns me most about recent transfers over a 3 year period and beyond, is the preference for older players, for "rejects", and players past their peak, if they had a peak.

Really effective scouting means identifying younger players without needing to pay a premium, and having a global outlook when doing so. You may not get payback for 1-2 seasons, but you get it eventually. I'd argue with the state of the current squad, that payback in certain positions wouldn't be long coming.

We can either buy 2 players of the Brands model, or perhaps 4 in the alternative model. Ideally you get a mix in, but the emphasis should be on players 24 or younger.

We'll have to get actual money for some players as well, Ricky being the prime example, its just a pity that his value seems to be plummeting by the week.