Can We Succeed Next Season Without Breaking FFP?

[catcherintherye]

If they don’t want to be here than goodbye
Even as a coach of schoolboy teams I learned that
They don’t train well , don’t put in 100% effort when playing and are generally sniping in the dressing room
I’d keep Coleman over Holgate if Holgate is not happy
At least for all his limitations due to age and injury Coleman gives 100%
A promoted team would gladly pay 20-25 m for Holgate , an experienced versatile PL defender ,

Yes it is that sort of thing. And I could have called it wholly wrong, but it's more an examplar of what is happening. I mean when you look at Holgate and Coleman I don't think it's been called wildly wrong at this point.

The worry I have with Holgate is apparently Newcastle at looking at a fee of 3.5 million which seems very low. However it's more the wider principle. A few of these players, Holgate, Iwobi, Gomes, Richarlison look in need of someone saying to them-if you think you're too good to be here, there's the door. For a long time with some of them it has been "please don't leave".

In any walk of life it is amazing how corrosive it is when an organisation keeps bending over backwards for people who want out, at the expense of those who might not be quite as good but who want to stay. Yes you have to try to accomodate a bit, but I think with a few we have gone too far the other way.

It's why I don't want to hear "oh but FFP" anymore. Getting the right culture has to outweigh staying with a bunch of discredited and immoral regs.

You'd also be amazed, how many people's attitude picks up when you just bite the bullet and say "you can go then". I work for an employer now who's like that. Nobody is bigger than the company. If you start acting like that, you go. He does it every time. Even when we have lost some pretty key people in areas. As soon as that line is crossed, and people act as if the company are lucky to have them, they are gone. We tend to suffer a bit short term, but in the long term it always works itself out.

If I was Ancelotti or the club, I wouldn't be begging Richarlison to stay as we are not in Europe. The reason we are not in Europe is he has missed key chances. Even in the last few weeks, we would have won 5 more points against Palace and Sheffield United if he had finished chances better. That will be the difference between 10th and 5th. So I don't want to be hearing that he's frustrated we are not in Europe. Go and have a look in the mirror.

 

[PSB1]

As a final thought, it may be players that we quite like end up going.

That would be quite a short list.

 

[Brisan123]

Yes I'd go along with a fair bit of that. Holgate is probably another like Richarlison who the "unhappy players can leave" comment may have been directed at. Essentially buck your ideas and attitude up or go.

I'd say the days of certain players thinking they were too good for the club will go, and not before time. I'd say Ancelotti feels let down by players he has given the benefit of the doubt too.

As a final thought, it may be players that we quite like end up going. That might be one consequence of this.

Just to add about Ricarlison
Big teams in Italy or Spain would jump at the chance of signing Brazil’s no 9
Maybe Barca Real or Juve would be interested and I know player swops don’t happen but the pandemic has changed all the rules and if Barca do not get Haarland ( I think he will look and see a financially crippled poor squad ) then maybe Couthino if rumours are to be believed could be part of a deal

 

[catcherintherye]

Our biggest issue as I see it is spreading the budget amongst the optimal number of signings Carlo would like to make.

We go into every summer saying we need six players or thereabouts.

We can't spend £30-40m on six problem areas, FFP or not.

So the opening premise means we have to settle. Before we do anything.

What concerns me most about recent transfers over a 3 year period and beyond, is the preference for older players, for "rejects", and players past their peak, if they had a peak.

Really effective scouting means identifying younger players without needing to pay a premium, and having a global outlook when doing so. You may not get payback for 1-2 seasons, but you get it eventually. I'd argue with the state of the current squad, that payback in certain positions wouldn't be long coming.

We can either buy 2 players of the Brands model, or perhaps 4 in the alternative model. Ideally you get a mix in, but the emphasis should be on players 24 or younger.

We'll have to get actual money for some players as well, Ricky being the prime example, its just a pity that his value seems to be plummeting by the week.

Good post mate.

Just a few thoughts if I may.

The first would be, FFP aside why couldn't we? We are told Usmanov (and likely the 3rd billionaire involved) have substantial revenues. If they are involved then of course we can spend big. If they are not, then a massive massive turnaround is needed from the top down. But what can't continue is this going around the edges of FFP approach. If theya re not involved,it's pointless having Ancelotti and buying these older players.

The issue with lads under 24 is that they cost a lot of money. So you are back at the catch 22. Godfrey is a good example. I think he's been a great signing, the closest we have had to a "Moyes type" signing, but he did cost 25m. You replicate that across 3-4 areas and you have 100m, and given attacking players cost more, it may be a fair bit northwards of that. That is just to get 4 more Ben Godfreys in the key positions. Last summer we bought 2 cm's and a RW in addition to Godfrey. Had we have tried to do that with like for like, again I think you are looking at 140m ish, where we spend around 45 on the other 3. So we have to make the call, are we prepared to pay a bit more for the growth potential?

The other big point I wouuld make, is that we have bought some talented younger "gems" in Nkounkou and Brainthwaite (who did well on loan at Blackburn). It would be good to see some of these players integrated.

 

[brieverton]

Good post mate.

Just a few thoughts if I may.

The first would be, FFP aside why couldn't we? We are told Usmanov (and likely the 3rd billionaire involved) have substantial revenues. If they are involved then of course we can spend big. If they are not, then a massive massive turnaround is needed from the top down. But what can't continue is this going around the edges of FFP approach. If theya re not involved,it's pointless having Ancelotti and buying these older players.

The issue with lads under 24 is that they cost a lot of money. So you are back at the catch 22. Godfrey is a good example. I think he's been a great signing, the closest we have had to a "Moyes type" signing, but he did cost 25m. You replicate that across 3-4 areas and you have 100m, and given attacking players cost more, it may be a fair bit northwards of that. That is just to get 4 more Ben Godfreys in the key positions. Last summer we bought 2 cm's and a RW in addition to Godfrey. Had we have tried to do that with like for like, again I think you are looking at 140m ish, where we spend around 45 on the other 3. So we have to make the call, are we prepared to pay a bit more for the growth potential?

The other big point I wouuld make, is that we have bought some talented younger "gems" in Nkounkou and Brainthwaite (who did well on loan at Blackburn). It would be good to see some of these players integrated.

There should still be value in the continental European market and South America where you can pay £15m and not £25m. Not for every position, but we have to look for flexibility. I'd accept that there is a longer bedding in period and that may frustrate fans wanting an instant fix, but I'd point them to last Sunday's efforts as an example of how it can all go drastically wrong.

We should have been doing this 3 years ago, so effectively Brands has to begin all over this summer, if he is capable of doing so. What an indictment of him.

We'll spend money as we always do, but if you sat down and asked how much it would take to fix this squad in the shortest time possible, what answer would you get? £200/£300 million?

I'd expect us to spend similar to last summers outlay, so if its more short-termism in the approach, our problems are going to go on.

 

[matty1878]

Im not sure we can stay within FFP unless we sell some of the players we would actually like to keep. So people keep mentioning Leicester, but they forget that they sold; Mahrez, Kante, Drinkwater, Chilwell and Maguire for over £250m, so each year they sell one or two big players and then sign 4 players with the money. Then when 2 of those players work out, it looks like they have done fantastic business.

We have just not had many of our transfers work out over the last 4 years and we keep buying players at the top of their value. Its going to be really hard for us to do what Leicester have done. Lets say we manage to sell Kean for £45m, would be able to sign 2 players for that money, say a winger and striker? Same if we sold Calvert Lewin for £80m could we use that for 2/3 players that would go into the first team? Would people be happy with that or riot because we would still have some of the "deadwood" in the squad?

Personally I think we will only add 4 players to the squad in the summer, GK, CB, RB, RW. I think we will need more than that. but its my gut feeling.

we aren’t staying within FFP we’re guna piddle all over it

 

[Brisan123]

I think we will ditch FFP and tell UEFA and the PL
“Punish and sort the scab 6 properly and then come back and have a chat with us “
Don’t forget UEFA have to deal with the fact that the Super League has in theory not gone away , Real , Barca and Juve are still in it
What do UEFA do ,if as has been been stated by the Italian FA , Juventus are thrown out of Serie A next season if they do not resign from the Super League
Will the Spanish FA have the willingness to do the same to Real and Barca if they refuse to resign from the Super league
UEFA have a lot more to worry about than little old Everton going on a spending spree and giving 100m plus sales to financially stricken clubs in France , Spain , Portugal , Italy and Germany
Because I can guarantee you the normal big spenders Real , Barca and Juve will not be spending big
Even Ronaldo knows this and has packed his 17m car collection into the back of a low loader
And here’s me looking to spend 20k Euro on a 1 or 2 yr old saloon or H/B lol

 

[matty1878]

I have a feeling going on Carlos comments and the fact that Usmanov brought him here that it will be a big spend this year
The super league has frightened them into action
The financial impact of the pandemic on clubs all over Europe has made FFP meaningless
They will trust and want to back Carlo
I’d say 100m plus sales this summer and we might see a few shock outs
5/6 straight into first team

yep Carlo knows he’s going to spend big - you don’t bring someone of his caliber to not spend he knows what he needs

 

[Brisan123]

yep Carlo knows he’s going to spend big - you don’t bring someone of his caliber to not spend he knows what he needs

Agreed it’s like Mercedes hiring Lewis Hamilton and giving him a Fiat 500 to race with ( I was going to say a Lada but don’t want to upset our Russian overlords )
Carlo has realised he can’t get a tune out of this band so he is going to bring in his own musicians and just keep the name

 

[catcherintherye]

Just to add about Ricarlison
Big teams in Italy or Spain would jump at the chance of signing Brazil’s no 9
Maybe Barca Real or Juve would be interested and I know player swipes don’t happen but the pandemic has changed all the rules and if Barca do not get Haarland ( I think he will look and see a financially crippled poor squad ) then maybe Couthino if rumours are to be believed could be part of a deal

Yes to all of that. I think we were linked with a Barca CB too recently. Madrid and Barca are skint. Juventus have been skint for a long time, and Inter Milan they are talking a fire sale being needed after they won the league. There just isn't a huge amount of money knocking about.

If the club can be creative though, and add 2-3 players in return, maybe that works?

 

[catcherintherye]

There should still be value in the continental European market and South America where you can pay £15m and not £25m. Not for every position, but we have to look for flexibility. I'd accept that there is a longer bedding in period and that may frustrate fans wanting an instant fix, but I'd point them to last Sunday's efforts as an example of how it can all go drastically wrong.

We should have been doing this 3 years ago, so effectively Brands has to begin all over this summer, if he is capable of doing so. What an indictment of him.

We'll spend money as we always do, but if you sat down and asked how much it would take to fix this squad in the shortest time possible, what answer would you get? £200/£300 million?

I'd expect us to spend similar to last summers outlay, so if its more short-termism in the approach, our problems are going to go on.

Yes all really good points.

You can certainly buy from more unfashionable markets and get cheaper. My concern is, will the manager play them? I put Nkounkou into that, he hasn't been played as he doens't have the experience. We have done it with Onyekuru, Vlasic etc too. They just never got a look in. I don't see this manager playing a lot of them.

That's the difficulty here. So if the board want to keep the manager, someone either needs to tell him to use what will be given to him (which I don't think will happen) or we have to adjust our approach. If that means buying more premium under 25's who will meet his protocol to play, but also have growth potential- that may be the solution. In fairness, that is what we did with Godfrey, and while he's been a bit up and down, I tihnk we can all say he has been a good signing for us.

If we spend what we did last summer, 70m ish I'm not sure we can make a massive jump forwards (with the usual caveats that it depends how the market goes).

 

[catcherintherye]

Im not sure we can stay within FFP unless we sell some of the players we would actually like to keep. So people keep mentioning Leicester, but they forget that they sold; Mahrez, Kante, Drinkwater, Chilwell and Maguire for over £250m, so each year they sell one or two big players and then sign 4 players with the money. Then when 2 of those players work out, it looks like they have done fantastic business.

We have just not had many of our transfers work out over the last 4 years and we keep buying players at the top of their value. Its going to be really hard for us to do what Leicester have done. Lets say we manage to sell Kean for £45m, would be able to sign 2 players for that money, say a winger and striker? Same if we sold Calvert Lewin for £80m could we use that for 2/3 players that would go into the first team? Would people be happy with that or riot because we would still have some of the "deadwood" in the squad?

Personally I think we will only add 4 players to the squad in the summer, GK, CB, RB, RW. I think we will need more than that. but its my gut feeling.

In fairness though we sold Lukaku, Stones, Deulofeu, Gana and Barkley for 200m. We just haven't recruited as well as them.

 

[Brisan123]

There should still be value in the continental European market and South America where you can pay £15m and not £25m. Not for every position, but we have to look for flexibility. I'd accept that there is a longer bedding in period and that may frustrate fans wanting an instant fix, but I'd point them to last Sunday's efforts as an example of how it can all go drastically wrong.

We should have been doing this 3 years ago, so effectively Brands has to begin all over this summer, if he is capable of doing so. What an indictment of him.

We'll spend money as we always do, but if you sat down and asked how much it would take to fix this squad in the shortest time possible, what answer would you get? £200/£300 million?

I'd expect us to spend similar to last summers outlay, so if its more short-termism in the approach, our problems are going to go on.

I don’t think Moshiri has the patience yet for younger players
He wants his team regularly in Europe before we move into the new stadium
He will want 5-6 players of quality to get us there
If as has been suggested Ricarlison is not happy then at a minimum that’s 50 m ( 60m would be my guess )
Kean 40-45 m
Holgate 15- 20m
Mina if he does not sign a new contract 25 m
Add in 25m for other bits and pieces ( JJK , Bernard , Gordon , Gomes etc
Then that’s approx 150m
Add in 100m from Moshiri and then that’s a war chest to spend
Not saying it’ll happen but Carlo has stated we will spend , has stated he is not happy with certain players attitudes , ( as has this forum ) , he has also stated unhappy players can leave
Usmsnov brought Carlo here with the promise of backing
Carlo has publicly stated he is here for the long term.
This summer will make or break the project and I think we are in for a rollercoaster summer with big spending and a few surprising ins and out
Moshiri has no other option at this stage but to go all in with the best hand (Carlo and no real FFP ) he has had so far

 

[Zatara]

Just to add about Ricarlison
Big teams in Italy or Spain would jump at the chance of signing Brazil’s no 9
Maybe Barca Real or Juve would be interested and I know player swops don’t happen but the pandemic has changed all the rules and if Barca do not get Haarland ( I think he will look and see a financially crippled poor squad ) then maybe Couthino if rumours are to be believed could be part of a deal

Yes to all of that. I think we were linked with a Barca CB too recently. Madrid and Barca are skint. Juventus have been skint for a long time, and Inter Milan they are talking a fire sale being needed after they won the league. There just isn't a huge amount of money knocking about.

If the club can be creative though, and add 2-3 players in return, maybe that works?

If were moving Richarlison on then we'd need to get 2 players in return.

Barca id take Emerson and Araujo...but probably want some cash on top.

Madrid: Valverde, Vinicius, Rodrygo, Militao

Inter: Hakimi, Bastoni, Lautaro,Barella

Would they be open to letting those players go and would the players want to move...

 

[Yarrgh]

Is FFP still a thing to be concerned about after the pandemic hit last 2 seasons? I thought we were looking at a potential lessening of the rules to let it slide for the short term.

Or is that all wishful thinking?