When we played Derby in the playoff final both Mount and Tomori started for Derby but they were only kids then, still teenagers or just about 20 and completely unproven yes the talent was there but Frank did a great job with them that year. Harry Wilson also started for Derby that day. I agree that Chelsea has a very good long-term strategy with regard to youth but for a PL side to go through a summer transfer window without adding any new players, and to finish top 4 is a great achievement. It was also at a time when 1st and 2nd spots were wrapped up by your neighbours and Man City so there were only really 2 spots available.I agree with most of your point; 13th/14th will probably be about right. As for Derby, didn't he have a couple of the Chelsea kids with him there? They'd have probably been the best players at the club.
As for Chelsea, I'd imagine almost any manager could get top 4 with the talent they have at their disposal (was it 3rd Sarri got with them if I recall and a Europa win), and I'd be very surprised if it was Frank behind most/all of that +£200m spending. That seemed like the club buying players in the longterm interests of the club, not so much the caretaker who currently happened to occupy the managers seat.
He'll have to work with what he's got here. We can't recruit like Chelsea can.
I think Frank will have a fairly decent year with Everton if he is given some support in this window. The links with MGW and Cornet do look like there are funds available. MGW looks a good prospect but I am not so sure of Cornet, he missed some serious sitters in the run in last season which could have kept Burnely in the PL if he had converted them