Yes good post.
I have written a reasonable amount about this from the early outset of the crisis (when Corona Virus first broke out in March) that you would see some quite acute deflationary pressures and than this was unlikely to have peaked last summer. Indeed the inability of football to take quite radical action (i.e to find a collective solution to reduce wage bills) or alternatively formally announce an end to FFP (rather than at present a postponement) have been incredibly short sighted and added to the problem.
The shock of this years accounts will lead to problems, while next years will be even worse. I expect next summer to see a bigger dip. If that's the case you then start to wonder what 3 consecutive years of decline has to the longer term outlook. Either way though it will be an industry that is used to almost unparalleled YOY growth experience a sharp, and potentially prolonged decline and not knowing how to react. Some clubs have depended on transfer revenue to subsidise the whole business who are in deep trouble. At a bigger level in truth entire leagues have depended on it and the biggest buyer the PL is just not playing ball currently (as well as the elite teams). So you've got this horrendous situation currently there's little business done. Even if you have money to spend nd are one of the few, you would be wise just to sit on it and make teams sweat as the auction trends downwards.
Take Sancho for example, last summer Dortmund pitched him at initially 150 and then wanted 120. United were willing to go to 90m ish and pulled away. Pre Covid the general perception would have been-especially for a young player that his value would have risen, even if it was from the United valuation. He has lost around 20% on United's valuation of last summer, and that's an offer Dortmund were not willing to entertain last summer. You are looking at a 35% reduction on their price last summer, and probably 50% on what they wanted to sell him for pre Covid. And this is for very much blue chip, premium footballer, who is of an age and quality that is likely to outlive the decline and be able to sold on at the other side. If his price is down 20+% what do we think about the rest of the market?
Football culturally has moved to an approach in recent years where sellers have a price, and in truth there has increasingly been negative pressure as the window goes on. It's almost like the big buyers make their move first and slowly price start to fall as the realisation sets in for teams. What I've said a few times, is that football's eco-structure did not want this deflation. To them the game "worked" before. Agents, advisors, players, scouts, regulators all knew where they were. Inflation was consistent and relatively under control and for those in the game they couldn't see a world where prices tumbled.
As for our part in it, it's pretty hard. We were performing badly before the crisis. Our few saleable assets will have lost value (as we are seeing with Kean). I think Brands is a good negotiator on the buying side and will take things to the wire with players. I honestly wouldn't rule out Lenglet arriving on loan (or something equally mad like that). Sides are struggling though. Some reds I speak to are increasingly angry they can't buy anyone until they sell, and that essentially despite touting their players out, at present there have been no buyers. Even with acceptable payment packages, nobody wants Williams, Phillips, Shaqiri, Wilson, Origi etc for even £10m (and that's inclusive of bonuses). Maybe that changes as the window goes on, but I suspect there is more pressure on fees as time goes by.
It's an interesting window anyway. I still think we may see 1 big out here (probably 1 of the front 3) with Benitez building an attack around the 2 that are left. That will probably help some smart recruitment in other areas.