Everton Transfer Thread - Summer 2020

[Nymzee]

Fair enough, we will see. I’d be very disappointed if we used the health crisis as an excuse to return to Kenwright era expenditure levels.

I think now is the time to go for it. Use our money to take advantage of clubs that will be struggling in other countries.

But why's it an excuse? Why can't it be the reason?

If every club in the PL spends their nuts off and we don't then I'd agree it's poor but I reckon it's going to be a quiet market myself.

 

[ParisToffee]

Well, people who dont write that others have been "dropped on their head" at birth seem to have more of a concept of this than those who do.

Doesnt take a "rocket scientist" to understand the simple principles of why a multi billionaire with enormous backing would want to take advantage of a down market...

Or in your case...perhaps it may do lol


Anyway, this is the transfer thread...

@ParisToffee what do you think of Camavinga? Some think he'll become world class and others believe hes overrated

What i ve seen of him his been good ;-) Not letting pressure get to him and makes the right decisions in general ;-) He takes charge and leads too although young ! PSG, Bayern, Italian and Real looking at him but his staying calm saying he ll only go if club needs him to for financial reasons and happy to develop there ;-)

 

[catcherintherye]

Theres 2 ways to look at this situation.

1: Wait until the prices drop.

2: Work on the current fear.

If you look at say Bellingham at Birmingham, Camavinga at Rennes or Tonali at Brescia they are young and two of them the best players at their clubs.

They could be expecting to sell this summer and generate big money.

In Rennes/Birminghams position what do you do if a £25mil bid comes in for their player? Hold out and hope the market doesnt drop or sell now knowing that the money guarantees you can operate without fear?

We could put a lump down e.g £15mil and then the rest on staggered payments + success based incentives.

If it was me, id be looking at a couple of fear based deals and hold off on the rest.

I think there's a lot of truth in what you say. Markets decline but they don't do so in an even way. I think younger players, who have the potential to last through this drop will hold value the highest.

Rennes, Brescia and Birmingham all have a model of having to sell to survive. We have been there too. I think in this situation that clubs will be really desperate to sell, and will find (say in this country) 4 of the orthodox top 6 teams are really hit in their ability to spend (and that's being conservative). It's a big drop.

I'll be honest, I don't think we will go quite as wild as the 3 names above. I think when we talk of under 18's, it's more unknown players, like we saw the lad at Barca under 17's. I can see more speculative punts, but probably not the sort of money required for the above. What I would say though, is if one of them was on our radar, in a position we require strengthening we could do that. I don't think Brands is going toby lots of quantity though, it will still be quite targetting looking at his 3 years here.

What happens with those 3 will be interested. I am seeing Koln have Corona Virus now, and it's hard to see that league restarting. We will all be hit. If Sancho doesn't leave, I'm not sure Dortmund are as flush as they maybe felt they were.

 

[Zatara]

What i ve seen of him his been good ;-) Not letting pressure get to him and makes the right decisions in general ;-) He takes charge and leads too although young ! PSG, Bayern, Italian and Real looking at him but his staying calm saying he ll only go if club needs him to for financial reasons and happy to develop there ;-)

Theres a endless conveyor belt of talent thesedays in France. Quite amazing really.

Who are the others who are rated the most likely to reach the top?

 

[catcherintherye]

That depends how much you believe Usmanov is involved. Don't underestimate the financial casualties coming out of this virus. We might have some money but Mosh has already ploughed lots into us, our wage turnover is insane and we still aren't in a pretty place going into the new stadium. The AGM was very telling.

Also to the point in bold: yes, when matches are on TV.

I see no reason why Moshiri/Usmanov (whoever has funded so far) would switch the tap off now though. Their pound will probably go 2, maybe even 3 times as far. I don't see that at all. I know we have some issues with FFP, but honestly I see it being relaxed or changed with whats going on.

As regards the PL bubble though, the PL will not be insulated by this. This will not be the case at all. It will be a brutal summer for football. The question is really, how big the contagion will be.

 

[Dymak]

But why's it an excuse? Why can't it be the reason?

If every club in the PL spends their nuts off and we don't then I'd agree it's poor but I reckon it's going to be a quiet market myself.

Because the impact on Everton is negligible, at least thus far, and I think we are better equipped to manage any forthcoming consequences.

If this season is completed, then the TV money continues to roll in. If it isn’t then the league and broadcasters will come to a deal, probably with more games being televised next season. The net loss is limited to a bit of gate revenue.

If next season is cancelled, or even if next seasons games have to be played behind closed doors, then I agree that it will be a bumpy ride for many. But we will be better equipped than most.

Obviously if next season was cancelled then transfer activity would come to a near halt. I don’t think that will happen tho, the league are clearly bending over backwards to complete this season, let alone next season.

 

[Zatara]

I think there's a lot of truth in what you say. Markets decline but they don't do so in an even way. I think younger players, who have the potential to last through this drop will hold value the highest.

Rennes, Brescia and Birmingham all have a model of having to sell to survive. We have been there too. I think in this situation that clubs will be really desperate to sell, and will find (say in this country) 4 of the orthodox top 6 teams are really hit in their ability to spend (and that's being conservative). It's a big drop.

I'll be honest, I don't think we will go quite as wild as the 3 names above. I think when we talk of under 18's, it's more unknown players, like we saw the lad at Barca under 17's. I can see more speculative punts, but probably not the sort of money required for the above. What I would say though, is if one of them was on our radar, in a position we require strengthening we could do that. I don't think Brands is going toby lots of quantity though, it will still be quite targetting looking at his 3 years here.

What happens with those 3 will be interested. I am seeing Koln have Corona Virus now, and it's hard to see that league restarting. We will all be hit. If Sancho doesn't leave, I'm not sure Dortmund are as flush as they maybe felt they were.

I could see Brands bringing in a wave of cheap youngsters for the reserves initially. But ive thought the same since hes arrived.

The thing is that now some teams will be desperate for money, those like Barca who are made up of fans -- same in Germany (usually) wont have as much cash to splash around.

The ones backed by multi billionaires who will massively increase their wealth during this crisis will be able to really plunder clubs and pirate off their best players.

If the FFP rules are relaxed (they surely should be) then we could do enormous business but if they are kept as they are then were still well placed with Moshiri probably selling a shirt deal to USM with the cash upfront.

 

[catcherintherye]

You maybe want to watch the AGM back again, account for a huge chunk of lost TV money, factor in that a lot of clubs will not feel the need to sell their assets in a poor market & remind yourself we still have some huge draining contracts on the books before thinking we're going to come out swinging here.

There are 2 issues at play here though, Everton and the other clubs.

Conventionally, Everton would be on the drink of insolvency in a conventional sense. However I don't think Moshiri is concerned, he is not doing this to be profitable with Everton. If he was, he has to sell Richarlinson for 85+m in January (looking back we should have sold knowing what we do now!). Without Moshiri, we aren't having these conversations. I'm essentially predicting an awful situation for us where we have to sell players and replace from within. However with Moshiri's liquidity we potentially stand a good chance of being liquid in a buyers market.

As for other teams, logically yes, you just hold out and don't sell. I think it's what we do with our players. No doubt some teams will do this. In a lot of ways though, it's just exacerbates the wider problems of not enough trading being done. Unfortunately, outside the bubble of the PL many sides are required to have to sell to survive and keep the liquidity going. Their model requires them to have to sell, mainly to England to afford the running of their clubs. It sounds very alien to us in England with a big TV deal, but in honesty, up until about 5 or 6 years ago (think John Stones saga being a turning point) that was our world. We had to sell, every 2-3 years a big asset to keep buying and paying wages. When we spent more we just sold more frequently.

That is the world for some teams, and they are going to find, that there are 75%, maybe even 90% less buyers than they had 6 months ago. Fine you sit on the asset, but for a lot of clubs it's going to mean you go into administration (that may allow players to walk away for free). Thats before you factor in loss of revenues from Covid. They are going to try to be selling in a plunging market.

So there is a lot of options. I don't think we are as wide and wild as Zat suggests, as Brands is very targeted, but our targets will likely have been upgraded if we can keep the same budget.

 

[ParisToffee]

Theres a endless conveyor belt of talent thesedays in France. Quite amazing really.

Who are the others who are rated the most likely to reach the top?

From u16 up there is just a mini version of the older 1st team lad there ! they invested hugely in under age footballat most clubs and even at the local amateur team near where I live there is maybe 150 kids at training with coaches too ;-)

PSG have some good kids like Kouassi and Aouchiche and then lads like Merlin at Nantes are interesting and Matsima at Monaco! Older again would be Gouiri at Lyon and Alioui in Belgium

 

[Zatara]

I see no reason why Moshiri/Usmanov (whoever has funded so far) would switch the tap off now though. Their pound will probably go 2, maybe even 3 times as far. I don't see that at all. I know we have some issues with FFP, but honestly I see it being relaxed or changed with whats going on.

As regards the PL bubble though, the PL will not be insulated by this. This will not be the case at all. It will be a brutal summer for football. The question is really, how big the contagion will be.

Moshiri / Usmanovs £1 will become £2++

And a player for sale at £50mil could be £30mil.

We're looking solid...just the FFP to manouevre.

 

[Stephenlloyd]

Bellingham isn't going anywhere now.
Camavinga said he'd stay at Rennes if they get into CL next season which they will.
Tonali far too expensive even post-COVID

We defintely won't be signing anyone for £25m so you can temper your hopes down there.

You don’t know what we will spend, like I don’t.
It’s purely guess work by us all at this point.

 

[Zatara]

From u16 up there is just a mini version of the older 1st team lad there ! they invested hugely in under age footballat most clubs and even at the local amateur team near where I live there is maybe 150 kids at training with coaches too ;-)

PSG have some good kids like Kouassi and Aouchiche and then lads like Merlin at Nantes are interesting and Matsima at Monaco

Will be interesting to see where they all end up after this summer with no football...

PSG may try to sweep up a few i imagine.

 

[Goat]

Moshiri / Usmanovs £1 will become £2++

And a player for sale at £50mil could be £30mil.

We're looking solid...just the FFP to manouevre.

Club lost 120m+ last accounts, but Zat is here suggesting we are looking solid.

 

[Zatara]

Club lost 120m+ last accounts, but Zat is here suggesting we are looking solid.

The only issue is FFP.

 

[ParisToffee]

Will be interesting to see where they all end up after this summer with no football...

PSG may try to sweep up a few i imagine.

Dortmund etc are trying to poach some off them as in France players have to be 18 I think for a professional contract so wage offers limited so German and Spainish starting to hunt around the kids teams in Ligue 1