That’s the point, there is nothing in giving the first penalty, that has any direct cause or impact, that means the others wouldn’t be given. You are also stating things MUST be different if the pen is given, but that is not true.
There is actually nothing that directly means the subsequent passage of play must be different. If the first pen was given, taken, after that the rest of the play could resume and be exactly the same as it was before.
This is just an “other possible worlds” theory but it’s really a bit pointless. What happened, happened.