How many points will keep us Safe

[barneygumble]

I guess you should be asking how many points can we realistically obtain from

Man United
Chelsea
Leicester
Chelsea
Brentford
Palace

Cause we’re going to need 12 from them, cause we’re not getting a point away from home the way we’ve been playing.

I dread to think what Goodison will be like if we get 0 points from the next 2 aways.

 

[Bluestar]

I guess you should be asking how many points can we realistically obtain from

Man United
Chelsea
Leicester
Chelsea
Brentford
Palace

Cause we’re going to need 12 from them, cause we’re not getting a point away from home the way we’ve been playing.

I dread to think what Goodison will be like if we get 0 points from the next 2 aways.

six Or seven is what I see and it won’t be enough.

 

[barneygumble]

six Or seven is what I see and it won’t be enough.

Might get a bonus point away from
Home somewhere along the lines but I can’t see more than 10 Points.

I’m looking at Burnley, and should they beat us in a fortnight, they’d have 8 games to claw back a point on us.

They’ve got

Home
City
Everton
Southampton
Wolves
Villa
Newcastle

Away
West Ham
Norwich
Watford
Spurs

I look at that home list and I see 3/4 sides there who will be coasting to mid table obscurity.
Then the two big games away from home.

Haven’t even checked Watford yet, but I can genuinely see Burnley getting 12-13 from that.

 

[scoobysnacks]

I reckon IF we get at least a draw at Burnley we ARE safe.

 

[Saint Domingo]

Might get a bonus point away from
Home somewhere along the lines but I can’t see more than 10 Points.

I’m looking at Burnley, and should they beat us in a fortnight, they’d have 8 games to claw back a point on us.

They’ve got

Home
City
Everton
Southampton
Wolves
Villa
Newcastle

Away
West Ham
Norwich
Watford
Spurs

I look at that home list and I see 3/4 sides there who will be coasting to mid table obscurity.
Then the two big games away from home.

Haven’t even checked Watford yet, but I can genuinely see Burnley getting 12-13 from that.

Wouldn’t put it past Burnley to get something from City at home.

 

[barneygumble]

Everton P27;25pts	Watford P29;22Pts	Burnley P27;21pts	Brentford P30;30pts	Leeds P30;29pts
West Ham A	Liverpool A	Man City H	Chelsea H	Southampton H
Burnley A	Leeds H	Everton H	West Ham H	Watford H
Man Utd H	Brentford H	Norwich A	Watford A	Palace A
Leicester H	Man City A	West Ham A	Spurs H	Man City H
Liverpool A	Burnley H	Southampton H	Man Utd A	Arsenal A
Chelsea H	Palace A	Wolves H	Southampton H	Brighton H
Leicester A	Leicester H	Watford A	Everton A	Brentford A
Brentford H	Chelsea A	Villa H	Leeds H
Arsenal A		Spurs A
		Newcastle H
Palace H tbc	Everton H tbc	Villa A tbc		Chelsea H tbc
Watford A tbc

That’s everyone’s run in.

 

[wellillwill]

Before or after the ffp deduction?

 

[Evertonthat]

There's just no predicting form. Burnley and Watford are both capable of going on a run of getting some results. Who expected Watford to get 3 points at Southampton? Leeds and Brentford both with back to back wins out of nowhere?

No doubt it will be lower than the magic 40 points this year, but at this stage it really is a lottery from 15th down as to who drops. We just need to keep picking up points. Even if we don't win games, just stop losing them ffs.

 

[ToffeeTim]

Everton P27;25pts	Watford P29;22Pts	Burnley P27;21pts	Brentford P30;30pts	Leeds P30;29pts
West Ham A	Liverpool A	Man City H	Chelsea H	Southampton H
Burnley A	Leeds H	Everton H	West Ham H	Watford H
Man Utd H	Brentford H	Norwich A	Watford A	Palace A
Leicester H	Man City A	West Ham A	Spurs H	Man City H
Liverpool A	Burnley H	Southampton H	Man Utd A	Arsenal A
Chelsea H	Palace A	Wolves H	Southampton H	Brighton H
Leicester A	Leicester H	Watford A	Everton A	Brentford A
Brentford H	Chelsea A	Villa H	Leeds H
Arsenal A		Spurs A
		Newcastle H
Palace H tbc	Everton H tbc	Villa A tbc		Chelsea H tbc
Watford A tbc

That’s everyone’s run in.

Not that keen on trying to predict points based on run ins, but Brentford's does look pretty tough. 2 wins and they are safe though, and I think they will get them somewhere.

I'd rather be in our position than Burnley or Watford, but those two games will be huge. If we avoided defeat in both, or found 1 win from them, then we will be ok. 0 or 1 points and we are up against it. I think we can win any of the home games to be honest. Certainly not going to write off United or even the Chelsea game. The Leicester, United home double header needs to be targetted again as a potential 4 pointer.

If we could somehow draw level with Brentford and Leeds by the last game, or ideally 1 point ahead of one of them, then we will benefit from them playing each other final day.

Lots of ifs, buts and ,maybes still though. I think our focus needs to be on trying to average 1 point per game for the final 11. If we can get 11 points, I think we will be ok. That means finding probably 3 wins, 2 draws, and losing 6. If we get 9 or fewer points, then I think we are down. I think 35 or 36 is the number based on those matches.

 

[MikeH72]

I guess you should be asking how many points can we realistically obtain from

Man United
Chelsea
Leicester
Chelsea
Brentford
Palace

Cause we’re going to need 12 from them, cause we’re not getting a point away from home the way we’ve been playing.

I dread to think what Goodison will be like if we get 0 points from the next 2 aways.

If we don’t pick up any more points away from home then we’re getting relegated, because that would mean defeats at Watford and Burnley. By hook or by crook, we have to roll our sleeves up and start picking up points away from home. Doesn’t matter what has gone on for the rest of the season, we have to sort that out starting from right now or we’re finished.

 

[ZZtopZZ]

There's just no predicting form. Burnley and Watford are both capable of going on a run of getting some results. Who expected Watford to get 3 points at Southampton? Leeds and Brentford both with back to back wins out of nowhere?

No doubt it will be lower than the magic 40 points this year, but at this stage it really is a lottery from 15th down as to who drops. We just need to keep picking up points. Even if we don't win games, just stop losing them ffs.

Completely agree with this. The bottom half of the Premier League during the last couple of months of the season always feels a bit unpredictable – and this season perhaps even more so. I think we'll be fine – just – but it's based on little more than a combination of gut feeling, the fact we've produced results like the Arsenal, Leeds and Newcastle ones, and seeing the momentum Burnley had in mid-February dissipating.

 

[RomanReigns]

not gonna lie, brentford are screwed

 

[Gwladysstreetlad]

Brentford, Leicester and Crystal Palace at home are all winnable games even for our horrendous side with the Goodison crowd getting the little rats over the line. Avoid defeat at Watford and Burnley and that should be enough for us with 36 points. We could also maybe nick another point at home to Man Utd as they are bang average themselves. I can't see Burnley getting 15 or 16 points in their last twelve games but if they somehow do then fair play they deserve to stay up.

 

[Kantareller]

Well below 40 points will do this season. The bottom teams are so poor this season, us included

 

[Stanley Parker]

Confidence is fragile! An early goal is enough for them to lose heart. Imagine what losing to Burnley could do.

And the Burnley team is full of battlers. They will not go down without a fight.

Can't score. Can't defend. I really can't see them climbing the table.

Fasten your safety belts please. It's going to be an anxious time.

I hope Diamond and Snods are up for the fight.