How many pts needed for Safety

[billyblue80]

We need more points in a 5-game span than we’ve accumulated in one for some time. It’s more about momentum than anything else now. Another dogged performance and a point or three at Leicester and there’s an outside chance. Otherwise we have to start all over again, again with 3 games left.

Personally I still think we’re down. No faith in us stringing results together at all.

We aren't down yet and I have had a sinking feeling for months too, various reasons everything going against us, the injuries the terrible away form. But we do need to string a run together NOW or we likely will be yes. We do have some advantages in terms of the two aways we have are Leicester three days after a semi who will rotate, and Watford who are gone. I agree we need to step up and get a result away from home now though. It's time to just be solid as we have had home lately and sit in at Leicester, Mina back is huge and hit on the break that is the formula away from home too.

 

[Mr Happy]

I think 41 sees us right !

 

[billyblue80]

We are weird team though because we have struggled all season against teams we were meant to beat and picked up points in games nobody gave us a chance in, big team's coming onto us suits the counter attack trams doing it to us doesn't . But it just proves no game is a given and we need to fight for wins in each game.

 

[bilyaletdinov_]

win our next 3 and go from there!

 

[Runub]

We are weird team though because we have struggled all season against teams we were meant to beat and picked up points in games nobody gave us a chance in, big team's coming onto us suits the counter attack trams doing it to us doesn't . But it just proves no game is a given and we need to fight for wins in each game.

Turning up for the ‘big’ teams has been an issue for Everton for years. Whether it is motivation, tactics or whatever who knows but always seems a drop in performance against the lesser teams

 

[knowing your history]

Worst case scenario that may be realistic is Burnley winning two of the last four and same for Leeds e.g. Burnley beating Villa and Newcastle at home and Leeds winning their last two.

Would then need another 8 points to stay up so obviously would need something on the road which isn't a given.

Very hopeful now the win yesterday will have dented the confidence at Leeds who probably thought they were pretty much safe two weeks ago so not sure they have two wins left in them.

I think 38 points may be enough so that should be well within the team's capabilities.

 

[johnjoeefc]

I honestly think our next two games Leicester and Watford away are of equal difficulty to the home games given all circumstances considered. We really need to go all out to win at Leicester. I would just play the 5-4-1 against them and keep it tight but instruct the players to be aggressive on the counter and flooding numbers forward. If we can make it a frustrating game for them then their psychological jadedness will kick in and we can steal the game.

Then with the confidence of breaking the away duck we can let the Watford game take care of itself. Performances on a whole have improved since the 4 nil away loss at palace. And with us playing in this more disciplined way and with players back from injury there is no reason we shouldnt start getting points on the board away from home.

 

[Khalekan]

I think Leeds will pick up 4 at most, but possibly only two.

In that case 38 would suffice so long as we don’t lose three game by massive scores.

We need to win our two home games and not lose in the first two of our away games to get on to 40, at least, and that ought to do it.

 

[Swartzy]

All we know for certain is that another 15pts now and we'll be playing premiership football next season.
So that is the only points total on my mind at the moment..

 

[MisterJ]

Just keep winning, let the points sort themselves out

 

[steven]

It’s literally impossible to say. End of season is going to be full of ups and downs.

The way Burnley are going they could go unbeaten - then again they could lose every single game.

Same with Leeds - next two look grim for them but they have pulled out results away from home this year and who knows which Arsenal or Chelsea turn up. Arsenal lost to Brighton recently and Chelsea have been up and down…similarly wouldn’t surprise me if they lost those two convincingly.

We get to 40 and I also think Southampton might not get another point…

Like Lampard says we just need to look after ourselves. Massive that we get the away monkey off our back in the Leicester game. I think we do that and we could very well go unbeaten till the Arsenal game.

 

[steven]

We need to be rock solid away at Leicester sit in a really low block don't allow space in behind doubt they risk Vardy but they are still dangerous

Having seen the last two game , part of me is more confident away against a team like Leicester than entertaining Brentford and palace where there’s an expectation on us to have more of the ball.

 

[Sheedy's right peg]

Villa doing the double over us really was a massive kick in the nuts.
They'd be right in the mire now even if we'd just shared the spoils.
Another thing to remember a certain ex manager for (and I know he wasn't in charge for the home game but he'd destroyed us by then).

 

[MrGrumpy]

37 won't be enough I don't think. 38 is 50/50. 39 more than likely. 40 or more seals it beyond doubt.

I think we'll get 39 but it's Leeds I worry about. They've got a win in them out of their last 4 fixtures me thinks but if they don't then it's definitely them who goes.

If Leeds lose to Arsenal and Chelsea, which is possible and we can beat Leicester and Watford, both possible that would leave us 3 games to get 1 win to stay up

 

[tadpole]

Worst case scenario that may be realistic is Burnley winning two of the last four and same for Leeds e.g. Burnley beating Villa and Newcastle at home and Leeds winning their last two.

Would then need another 8 points to stay up so obviously would need something on the road which isn't a given.

Very hopeful now the win yesterday will have dented the confidence at Leeds who probably thought they were pretty much safe two weeks ago so not sure they have two wins left in them.

I think 38 points may be enough so that should be well within the team's capabilities.

Agreed. There's a strong chance that either Burnley or Leeds will fail to get beyond 38. In which case two wins and a draw, or possibly just two wins, would be enough for us. In the unlikely event that both Burnley and Leeds win 2 out of 4, then we will need 3 wins out of 5.