2021/22 Jordan Pickford

[BlueToff]

What does "1vs1-expected saves" mean? Might be being stupid here

So his model takes into account all the 1v1s from over the past few seasons of the PL and then whatever algorithm he's come up with judges the ones this season against ones in the past that have been saved, not saved etc.

So Pickford would have been expected to save 2.42 more 1v1s than he actually has done based on a) his positioning b) the striker's position c) quality of the chance etc. I'm not sure if John Harrison (who I know and used to play footy against, the most annoying GK ever as he'd call every single friggin shot as soon as you'd hit it and 99/100 he'd be right with his call) uses anything like factoring in who is taking the shot into account (i.e. Opta's xG model will factor in whether it's Salah or Rondon running through on goal).

Also, John's 1v1s are not just what I'd think of a 1v1. I think of them as being like when Kane got behind us in the Spurs game, or Vinicius' goal last night for Madrid if you saw that one. John's also uses ones that are basically when an attacker can side-step a defender and then the only person standing in the way is the GK. Not saying it's wrong, just different definitions.

 

[BlueToff]

In a 1v1 it's how many of them he's expected to save. So he has let in 2.42 that he is expected to have saved. Alisson has saved 7.79 more than he was expected to.

I think...

Yep this is right

It's worth noting that overall on 'goals prevented' (it's a really crap label but nobody's come up with anything better yet) Pickford is like -1.2 for the season or something, which is bang in the middle of the road for the Premier League. He's better than Lloris, Pope and quite a few other good GKs in that regard. But that's an overarching model and not as detailed as John's.

Goals prevented is the same logic: Expected goals on target conceded (xGOT) – goals conceded (not inc. own goals)

 

[Nymzee]

Yep this is right

It's worth noting that overall on 'goals prevented' (it's a really crap label but nobody's come up with anything better yet) Pickford is like -0.2 for the season or something, which is bang in the middle of the road for the Premier League. He's better than Lloris, Pope and quite a few other good GKs in that regard. But that's an overarching model and not as detailed as John's.

Goals prevented is the same logic: Expected goals on target conceded (xGOT) – goals conceded (not inc. own goals)

He's been good this year but he's a sellable asset we could, maybe should, replace if we get relegated.

 

[BlueToff]

This is of GKs with 10 or more Premier League apps, just in the league.

It tallies with most models (give or take).

Sa, even though every time I've watched him play has made shocking errors, has been brilliant and that's a big reason why Wolves are where they are.

Similarly, Meslier has had a shocking season for basically letting in goals that are hit right at him.

Ramsdale's goals prevented figure was like +2.5/3 back in February and look now, he's slipped down.

Player​	Team​	Games Played​	Expected Goals on Target Conceded​	Goals Conceded (ex. Own Goals)​	Goals prevented​
José Sá​	Wolverhampton Wanderers​	33​	38.32​	28​	10.32​
de Gea, David​	Manchester United​	34​	51.67​	48​	3.67​
Forster, Fraser​	Southampton​	17​	31.48​	28​	3.48​
Alisson​	Liverpool​	31​	20.98​	19​	1.98​
Dúbravka, Martin​	Newcastle United​	22​	28.31​	27​	1.31​
Ederson​	Manchester City​	32​	22.26​	21​	1.26​
Mendy, Édouard​	Chelsea​	28​	24.56​	24​	0.56​
Ramsdale, Aaron​	Arsenal​	29​	31.55​	31​	0.55​
Schmeichel, Kasper​	Leicester City​	32​	50.33​	50​	0.33​
Lloris, Hugo​	Tottenham Hotspur​	33​	36.52​	37​	-0.48​
Fabianski, Lukasz​	West Ham United​	33​	41.02​	42​	-0.98​
Sánchez, Robert​	Brighton and Hove Albion​	33​	38.95​	40​	-1.05​
Pickford, Jordan​	Everton​	30​	47.83​	49​	-1.17​
Raya, David​	Brentford​	20​	18.67​	20​	-1.33​
Fernández, Álvaro​	Brentford​	12​	20.18​	22​	-1.82​
Pope, Nick​	Burnley​	31​	36.7​	39​	-2.3​
Bachmann, Daniel​	Watford​	11​	21.23​	24​	-2.77​
Guaita, Vicente​	Crystal Palace​	28​	28.48​	32​	-3.52​
McCarthy, Alex​	Southampton​	15​	17.07​	21​	-3.93​
Martínez, Emiliano​	Aston Villa​	31​	36.8​	41​	-4.2​
Krul, Tim​	Norwich City​	26​	42.78​	49​	-6.22​
Foster, Ben​	Watford​	22​	30.5​	40​	-9.5​
Meslier, Illan​	Leeds United​	33​	55.16​	67​	-11.84​

 

[BlueToff]

He's been good this year but he's a sellable asset we could, maybe should, replace if we get relegated.

Oh absolutely he'll have to go if we're relegated but I'm really not quite sure where he goes to.

This is my thing with Pickford. He's England's best GK (atm), he is a good GK and when playing at international level behind a competent defence, he's shown that.

But I don't see where in the Premier League he goes right now. He isn't getting to a big six club - if he does it'll be Spurs but he won't be a starter so would he risk that (I mean I know he would rather do that than play in the Championship). I don't really see him as being a lad who wants to live in London either (but you know, could be totally wrong on that but seems like someone who'd prefer to stick up north if possible). But then Leeds won't be able to pay him those wages he'd want, and I imagine even if Meslier has had some stinkers this season they won't want to replace him. Villa don't need a GK, Newcastle won't buy him. If we do take London/south into account, West Ham don't need one, Southampton won't break their wage structure surely... I dunno, it's a weird one. I think he may end up having to be sold very cheap somewhere. Let's just hope we don't have to find out.

 

[Simon Buttle]

Oh absolutely he'll have to go if we're relegated but I'm really not quite sure where he goes to.

This is my thing with Pickford. He's England's best GK (atm), he is a good GK and when playing at international level behind a competent defence, he's shown that.

But I don't see where in the Premier League he goes right now. He isn't getting to a big six club - if he does it'll be Spurs but he won't be a starter so would he risk that (I mean I know he would rather do that than play in the Championship). I don't really see him as being a lad who wants to live in London either (but you know, could be totally wrong on that but seems like someone who'd prefer to stick up north if possible). But then Leeds won't be able to pay him those wages he'd want, and I imagine even if Meslier has had some stinkers this season they won't want to replace him. Villa don't need a GK, Newcastle won't buy him. If we do take London/south into account, West Ham don't need one, Southampton won't break their wage structure surely... I dunno, it's a weird one. I think he may end up having to be sold very cheap somewhere. Let's just hope we don't have to find out.

West Ham do need another keeper as Fabianski is getting on now but they have been linked down here to another Polish guy a few times

 

[BlueToff]

West Ham do need another keeper as Fabianski is getting on now but they have been linked down here to another Polish guy a few times

They've got Areola. He's on loan but he's an excellent GK by his own right and I think they have an option to buy. Maybe they would take Pickford though.

 

[LocalNative]

This is of GKs with 10 or more Premier League apps, just in the league.

It tallies with most models (give or take).

Sa, even though every time I've watched him play has made shocking errors, has been brilliant and that's a big reason why Wolves are where they are.

Similarly, Meslier has had a shocking season for basically letting in goals that are hit right at him.

Ramsdale's goals prevented figure was like +2.5/3 back in February and look now, he's slipped down.

Player​	Team​	Games Played​	Expected Goals on Target Conceded​	Goals Conceded (ex. Own Goals)​	Goals prevented​
José Sá​	Wolverhampton Wanderers​	33​	38.32​	28​	10.32​
de Gea, David​	Manchester United​	34​	51.67​	48​	3.67​
Forster, Fraser​	Southampton​	17​	31.48​	28​	3.48​
Alisson​	Liverpool​	31​	20.98​	19​	1.98​
Dúbravka, Martin​	Newcastle United​	22​	28.31​	27​	1.31​
Ederson​	Manchester City​	32​	22.26​	21​	1.26​
Mendy, Édouard​	Chelsea​	28​	24.56​	24​	0.56​
Ramsdale, Aaron​	Arsenal​	29​	31.55​	31​	0.55​
Schmeichel, Kasper​	Leicester City​	32​	50.33​	50​	0.33​
Lloris, Hugo​	Tottenham Hotspur​	33​	36.52​	37​	-0.48​
Fabianski, Lukasz​	West Ham United​	33​	41.02​	42​	-0.98​
Sánchez, Robert​	Brighton and Hove Albion​	33​	38.95​	40​	-1.05​
Pickford, Jordan​	Everton​	30​	47.83​	49​	-1.17​
Raya, David​	Brentford​	20​	18.67​	20​	-1.33​
Fernández, Álvaro​	Brentford​	12​	20.18​	22​	-1.82​
Pope, Nick​	Burnley​	31​	36.7​	39​	-2.3​
Bachmann, Daniel​	Watford​	11​	21.23​	24​	-2.77​
Guaita, Vicente​	Crystal Palace​	28​	28.48​	32​	-3.52​
McCarthy, Alex​	Southampton​	15​	17.07​	21​	-3.93​
Martínez, Emiliano​	Aston Villa​	31​	36.8​	41​	-4.2​
Krul, Tim​	Norwich City​	26​	42.78​	49​	-6.22​
Foster, Ben​	Watford​	22​	30.5​	40​	-9.5​
Meslier, Illan​	Leeds United​	33​	55.16​	67​	-11.84​

Put it this way I wouldn't be trading Pickford for Fraser Forster.

 

[BlueToff]

Put it this way I wouldn't be trading Pickford for Fraser Forster.

Well no but that's why it's important to look at the games played too and the number of 'expected goals' Forster has faced.

Forster has played less and therefore faced fewer shots that would be expected to result in a goal. He's also played in front of a better defence. I really should have included shots on target faced but I forgot and CBA adding that in now. By the same logic, you can see just how poor Alex McCarthy has been this season for them, hence why Forster is playing. Forster's stats will also be skewed because v Arsenal and in one of their other recent games he made some unbelievable saves.

If we take out players below 25 apps, we get this, so Pickford is one of the poorer ones when it comes to those that have made a similar number of apps. But you know, I think Martinez is a great goalkeeper and he's way down on the list.

Player​	Team​	Games Played​	Expected Goals on Target Conceded​	Goals Conceded (ex. Own Goals)​	Goals prevented​
José Sá​	Wolverhampton Wanderers​	33​	38.32​	28​	10.32​
de Gea, David​	Manchester United​	34​	51.67​	48​	3.67​
Alisson​	Liverpool​	31​	20.98​	19​	1.98​
Ederson​	Manchester City​	32​	22.26​	21​	1.26​
Mendy, Édouard​	Chelsea​	28​	24.56​	24​	0.56​
Ramsdale, Aaron​	Arsenal​	29​	31.55​	31​	0.55​
Schmeichel, Kasper​	Leicester City​	32​	50.33​	50​	0.33​
Lloris, Hugo​	Tottenham Hotspur​	33​	36.52​	37​	-0.48​
Fabianski, Lukasz​	West Ham United​	33​	41.02​	42​	-0.98​
Sánchez, Robert​	Brighton and Hove Albion​	33​	38.95​	40​	-1.05​
Pickford, Jordan​	Everton​	30​	47.83​	49​	-1.17​
Pope, Nick​	Burnley​	31​	36.7​	39​	-2.3​
Guaita, Vicente​	Crystal Palace​	28​	28.48​	32​	-3.52​
Martínez, Emiliano​	Aston Villa​	31​	36.8​	41​	-4.2​
Krul, Tim​	Norwich City​	26​	42.78​	49​	-6.22​
Meslier, Illan​	Leeds United​	33​	55.16​	67​	-11.84​

 

[grandjoeblue]

I know we won't be in the best negotiation position in the summer but we should still be aiming to get 50-60m or more for Pickford. He's one of the best keepers in the league.

 

[Simon Buttle]

They've got Areola. He's on loan but he's an excellent GK by his own right and I think they have an option to buy. Maybe they would take Pickford though.

Bartlomiej Dragowski is the name of the other keeper they are after.

 

[BlueToff]

I know we won't be in the best negotiation position in the summer but we should still be aiming to get 50-60m or more for Pickford. He's one of the best keepers in the league.

Erm, mate... I think you're going to be sorely disappointed

And as much as Pickford has been a consistent performer for us this season, tons of stats show that this bit in bold is very much not true.

 

[BlueToff]

What Brexit actually means:

• Higher prices
• Less choice
• Longer queues
• More polluted rivers
• Lower food standard
• Lower environmental standards
• Less trade
• Staff shortages
• More immigration
• Less funding to poor regions
• Loss of mobile roaming
• Expensive travel with pets
• Loss of scientific collaboration
• Expensive overseas study
• No more school trips coming to the UK
• 90 day limit on visiting the EU
• Lower GDP

and much, much more. Absolutely none of this is theoretical, just look!

Project Here, not Project Fear.

Did Pickford vote in or out?

 

[Ron1878]

Did Pickford vote in or out?

Whoops wrong thread. But I'd guess out

 

[grandjoeblue]

Erm, mate... I think you're going to be sorely disappointed

And as much as Pickford has been a consistent performer for us this season, tons of stats show that this bit in bold is very much not true.

What figure would you take for him?

I do think there are other factors that stats don't show, he has the worst defense in the premier infront of him.