judge us at the end of the transfer window – not now

[Lobster Johnson]

Exactly mate.

We've lost one.

We're without the other and the chances are we could be without him regularly.

My take is that if the club were seriously concerned about Dom long-term, they'd have gone all out for a first choice striker.

 

[MrGrumpy]

It's a legitimate worry. It looks like we're very likely to get additional production from Gordon. I am very much not predicting he will bang in the fifteen he is currently on pace for. We were at 43 last season, and we look like we're slightly sub-40 on the merits unless Gordon really kicks on. Sub-40 is very chancy to stay up unless we defend like a top 6 side, which is an enormous if even with all the adds. We're defending at that kind of clip now, but we also haven't been pasted by City and Arsenal yet.

What actually bothers me more than the raw numbers is the fact that we got thirteen goals from odd places all over the pitch last season, as well as a bunch of set piece goals (some of which count in both categories), and we have none of those through five fixtures. Our scorers are Gordon (2), Gray (1) and Digne (1), and the last is a former player doing us a solid while cutting out Iwobi. We have the disallowed goal off a corner at Villa for offside, yes, but that's inexperience from Gordon in not realizing that he has to get back onside once it's clear someone else will have the first touch. Someone else is in that space if we have an actual striker on the pitch, and that someone else would instinctively know this. It's a sloppy point to bin off.

New players, OK, players out of position, OK, but we were absolutely reliant on that production last season to stay up. We aren't yet generating it, and if we don't start we're down unless the forwards and Iwobi ninja a bunch of goals out of nothing. That seems very unlikely, for the reasons you outlined.

So if we only bought Haaland and no one else, where would we finish?

 

[GrandOldTeam]

Is the 1st 11 better then the 1st 11 last season?

Well, just looking at the first game last season;

Pickford

Coleman Holgate Keane Digne

Allan Doucoure

Townsend Gray Richarlison

Calvert-Lewin​

Iwobi, Mina and Gordon all come on in that game.

We won 3-1.

Richarlison and Calvert-Lewin both scored, and Richarlison/Townsend assist.

It's the goals mate. What I was saying here.

 

[Blue Parkender]

The suprise of the season could be Garner I believe there is a good player there.

 

[paultheblue]

I am disappointed like everyone else that we didn't get another striker in but if their wasn't a deal to be done for the right player at the right price then surely we must learn from the past and not throw good money after bad.
Overall I am happy with the signings we have made though without naming names I am not sure on one of the players we brought in.
The positives are we are stronger in defence and midfield, Tony Gordon is a year older and hopefuĺly going to be the player we want him to be.
We have got rid of a lot of the dead wood that have stunk the place out for a few years.
Lastly unlike last year we are no longer managed by Rafael Benitez .
I think we will be ok this year probably mid table to lower half but not fighting off relegation. We need to stick with Frank and continue to progress I don't want to see another change of manager this year.

 

[Martin Alvito]

So if we only bought Haaland and no one else, where would we finish?

Absolutely no idea. Can we get him service? That's at the heart of GOT's concern. Haaland is useless if he's a forlorn character wandering around the opposition box with the ball never reaching him in space.

 

[EFC78]

The miseries on here want us to be converted to a top four club overnight. the game is won and lost in midfield. Teams are going to find it very hard to score against us. Maupay will add some goals, Gray and Gordon are looking better in that department and our midfield additions will enable a bit more creativity and conversions, oh and Calvert Lewin will be back soon.

Give them three or four games to bed-in and we will find that we don't win many 6-0 but we will get plenty of 1 or 2 nils in our favour and draw many of the tougher games. Remember when Marcus Bent led the line? There is probably only Rondon and perhaps Tom Davies who are now surplus to requirements and we are no longer carrying a bloated overpaid squad who can't make it to the pitch because of injury.

The squad has been transformed and it will be of great interest to watch the team and younger players in particular develop.

Agree with you. Good post.

 

[MrGrumpy]

Well, just looking at the first game last season;

Pickford

Coleman Holgate Keane Digne

Allan Doucoure

Townsend Gray Richarlison

Calvert-Lewin​

Iwobi, Mina and Gordon all come on in that game.

We won 3-1.

Richarlison and Calvert-Lewin both scored, and Richarlison/Townsend assist.

It's the goals mate. What I was saying here.

So if DCL stays fit and gets the same as last season, then we need to replace Richy 10 goals. 6 of which he scored at the end of the season. Maupey should get 8-10 based on history meaning we need 2. I think Gordon can replace Richy with goals

 

[Toff33Blues99]

You're one injury away from disaster with two.

We did sign two attackers, I know everyone is over McNeil already but we signed two.

As opposed to 1 injury to the striker leaves us with Rondon potentially getting minutes or Mcneil. We have Douc, Davies and Allan in reserve in midfield

 

[Azza]

So if Dominic Calvert-Lewin stays fit and gets the same as last season, then we need to replace Richy 10 goals. 6 of which he scored at the end of the season. Maupey should get 8-10 based on history meaning we need 2. I think Gordon can replace Richy with goals

You should have your username changed to MrSunshine or MrOptimistic.

 

[MrGrumpy]

Absolutely no idea. Can we get him service? That's at the heart of GOT's concern. Haaland is useless if he's a forlorn character wandering around the opposition box with the ball never reaching him in space.

But your saying it’s a terrible window because we havnt bought a striker, but if bought Haaland wouldn’t that fix it? We still massively concede goals and won’t have any of the ball but we got the striker

 

[MrGrumpy]

You should have your username changed to MrSunshine or MrOptimistic.

Difference is I see the bigger picture.. yes I would have loved another striker but to say it’s a terrible window and where going down is insane when we massive upgraded defence and midfield

 

[Mosh Pit]

Who is the big character here now at this club who gets on the ball, fires up the crowd and helps bail us out of a mess?

I dont see one.

That concerns me no end, because I look at this team and wonder where 40 points comes from.

Starboy.

 

[Neiler]

Do think Maupay will add to converting those chances. Not talking 20 goals a season, but definitely turning draws into wins.

I'm expecting a Tim Cahill output mate, 8-10 a season - provided he gets those games.

Hes a scorer of really unlikely goals, hes a very good finisher but his best work is done deeper in the outside box rather then in the six yard box from what i have seen, hes better then DCL with ball at feet but isn't as good in the melee in the box getting on the end of things or the tap ins.

His most productive season came as part of a two at Brentford, some of the Brighton lads you talk to would say they never used him properly, or played to his natural skillset.

 

[Martin Alvito]

So if Dominic Calvert-Lewin stays fit and gets the same as last season, then we need to replace Richy 10 goals. 6 of which he scored at the end of the season. Maupey should get 8-10 based on history meaning we need 2. I think Gordon can replace Richy with goals

What GOT is saying is that there was a process that produced the goals and that Richarlison was a big part of that.

What I'm saying is that Richarlison had a lot of involvement with certain types of goal - the goals that resulted from either a short-range pass from forward to forward in the box (he is generally on either end), as well as a few that he just ninjaed out of nothing. Gray scored zip, zero, zilch, nada under Lampard last season, which was also a worry. FSW played fast ground counter, which was Gray's game. It was heartening to see him net early. Both of these are types of production we have to replace somehow.

What bothers me is that a almost a third of the goal production came from behind the forwards and we're not getting that right now.

But your saying it’s a terrible window because we havnt bought a striker, but if bought Haaland wouldn’t that fix it? We still massively concede goals and won’t have any of the ball but we got the striker

I'm much further to the "this is a good window" end of the spectrum. I would put it this way: in mid-July we were 100% down, given other clubs' spending this window. Possibly not even better than Bournemouth. We're walking out with what I would call a 20% chance of going down and legit young talents in on a shoestring budget as this window went. That's good work.

We still have a problem, which is that we are light goals. We either need to get to 40 or play some very stingy defense to feel good about getting enough wins to stay up. I think we will play some stingy defense. I don't know that we improved enough at that end to get away with scoring 35 and stay up. Burnley did that for two seasons, and in the second one the points tally came up snake eyes. As GOT points out, a reasonably healthy DCL probably solves all of this. The worrying case is the one where he isn't, where poor service, sloppy finishing and a lack of production from behind the forwards can send us down.