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2019/20 Marcel Brands

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You don't think, given Marcel does his job well, we can raise at least £50-100m from the list below?

Player_________Estimated Sal___Contract expiry
Mirallas_______£39,000_________Jun-19
Baines_________£65,000_________Jun-19
Williams_______£60,000_________Jun-19
Jagielka_______£50,000_________Jun-19
McCarthy_______£50,000_________Jun-20
Niasse_________£50,000_________Jun-20
Martina _______£35,000_________Jun-20
Galloway_______£22,500_________Jun-20
Garbutt________£27,500_________Jun-20
Bolasie________£75,000_________Jun-21
Ramirez________£80,000_________Jun-21
Schneiderlin__£100,000_________Jun-21
Besis__________£30,000_________Jun-21
Vlasic_________£30,000_________Jun-22
Tosun__________£60,000_________Jun-22

Year___P/W________Saving vs previous y'r
2019___£774,000
2020___£560,000___£214,000
2021___£375,000___£185,000
2022____£90,000___£285,000


The squad is far more complex then that mate. Mirallas also has a contract i think until 2020.

Firstly most people look at the squad from a footballing perspective, how great it would be to sell players and replace them with others from a business point of view its far different.

There are many dynamics at play in terms of squad management and a deal being in the best interests of the club. Let me explain a few key points.

Weighing up what you get for a player i.e. selling Bolaise for 5 million, doesn't mean the club is making 5 million. Players transfer fees are usually made in installments of 3 or 5 years. I suspect ours are mostly 5 years. So if you sign Bolasie for 27 million and he has two and half years left on his contract, he has a book price of 13.5 million i.e. what we still owe Palace for him. Getting 5 million for him sees us pretty much crystallizes a loss of 8.5 million. Now we may be prepared to do that on a couple of occasions in fact we did this and made a huge loss on Klassen, but we cant afford to do it on all our players, you are looking at the likes of Walcott, Tosun, Schnderlin, Bolaise and most of the lads out on loan. So those players are really difficult to get rid of with out a loss and long periods on their contracts because their market value has dropped since we signed them, if we do sell them lower we are taking on 10s of millions cummlitive losses, obviously wages in mitigation of the context of any deal have to be factored into. But the player isnt likely to volutarily take a lower wage, nor a club take on their existing wage unless the transfer fee was lower. We are already operating a 30 mill loss this season in my opinion.

Then you look at players, who are low hanging fruit, Baines and Jagielka out of contract, McCarthy maybe even Coleman. A football fan looks at that and rubs there hands and says great we will get them off the wage bill and have more money. Wrong, because these lads have been at the club so long we dont owe anything on the transfer fees and the only outgoing is on their wage. So essentially if you let Baines and Jageilka go or McCarthy you are creating a space in the squad that needs to be filled by a transfer fee and giving them leaving players wage. Its always a good thing to have have long standing players around with zero liability in a transfer fee. Colemans case is interesting in that his book price is very low and would command a big fee.

Then we have the players who would bring in a profit i.e. more then what we paid. You are looking at the players you wouldn't look to loose here, Richalison, Pickford, Digne, Gueye and Lookman. Not ideal selling any of those, but break glass should the capital be needed.

Academy players are interesting, they dont have a book price and are pure profit. People were questioning the decision of giving Pennington a new deal in the summer. Its a no brainier, he has a profile in the championship, clubs willing to pay 1 mill every season to loan him and eventually he will be sold. All pure profit, similarly anyone on loan from the academy or sold is pure profit. This is something Chelsea do very well.

So essentially the squad is dynamic to the context of the deal we have with player, that sets the criteria for the context of any deal out. Its is far more complicated then looking at the squad and picking the players that need to be sold and saying they will be sold for so much then so much that can then be invested into the team, its not how it works at all. It why net spend isn't worth anything. To illustrate what i mean take Mori's deal in the summer, we sold him for less then we paid, but because we had almost paid his whole transfer fee when we sold him, we made about a 7mill profit on him.

You can see in all the above why the role of DOF has become so vogue as its complex and skilled to navigate in budgets.
 
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The squad is far more complex then that mate. Mirallas also has a contract i think until 2020.

Firstly most people look at the squad from a footballing perspective, how great it would be to sell players and replace them with others from a business point of view its far different.

There are many dynamics at play in terms of squad management and a deal being in the best interests of the club. Let me explain a few key points.

Weighing up what you get for a player i.e. selling Bolaise for 5 million, doesn't mean the club is making 5 million. Players transfer fees are usually made in installments of 3 or 5 years. I suspect ours are mostly 5 years. So if you sign Bolasie for 27 million and he has two and half years left on his contract, he has a book price of 13.5 million i.e. what we still owe Palace for him. Getting 5 million for him sees us pretty much crystallizes a loss of 8.5 million. Now we may be prepared to do that on a couple of occasions in fact we did this and made a huge loss on Klassen, but we cant afford to do it on all our players, you are looking at the likes of Walcott, Tosun, Schnderlin, Bolaise and most of the lads out on loan. So those players are really difficult to get rid of with out a loss and long periods on their contracts because their market value has dropped since we signed them, if we do sell them lower we are taking on 10s of millions cummlitive losses, obviously wages in mitigation of the context of any deal have to be factored into. But the player isnt likely to volutarily take a lower wage, nor a club take on their existing wage unless the transfer fee was lower. We are already operating a 30 mill loss this season in my opinion.

Then you look at players, who are low hanging fruit, Baines and Jagielka out of contract, McCarthy maybe even Coleman. A football fan looks at that and rubs there hands and says great we will get them off the wage bill and have more money. Wrong, because these lads have been at the club so long we dont owe anything on the transfer fees and the only outgoing is on their wage. So essentially if you let Baines and Jageilka go or McCarthy you are creating a space in the squad that needs to be filled by a transfer fee and giving them leaving players wage. Its always a good thing to have have long standing players around with zero liability in a transfer fee. Colemans case is interesting in that his book price is very low and would command a big fee.

Then we have the players who would bring in a profit i.e. more then what we paid. You are looking at the players you wouldn't look to loose here, Richalison, Pickford, Digne, Gueye and Lookman. Not ideal selling any of those, but break glass should the capital be needed.

Academy players are interesting, they dont have a book price and are pure profit. People were questioning the decision of giving Pennington a new deal in the summer. Its a no brainier, he has a profile in the championship, clubs willing to pay 1 mill every season to loan him and eventually he will be sold. All pure profit, similarly anyone on loan from the academy or sold is pure profit. This is something Chelsea do very well.

So essentially the squad is dynamic to the context of the deal we have with player, that sets the criteria for the context of any deal out. Its is far more complicated then looking at the squad and picking the players that need to be sold and saying they will be sold for so much then so much that can then be invested into the team, its not how it works at all. It why net spend isn't worth anything. To illustrate what i mean take Mori's deal in the summer, we sold him for less then we paid, but because we had almost paid his whole transfer fee when we sold him, we made about a 7mill profit on him.

You can see in all the above why the role of DOF has become so vogue as its complex and skilled to navigate in budgets.
Good general overview but there's a few things I would dispute.

I wouldn't say it's 'wrong' to say it would be good to get rid of Baines, Jagielka and McCarthy. You're potentially talking about losing what, £150-180k a week off the wage bill there? The 3 of them have started 5 PL games between them this season, they don't need replacing with a transfer fee and new wage. Theoretically Holgate, Robinson and Williams/Baningime could take their places and cost us nothing, it's definitely a good thing.

I think you're also hugely overestimating the fees we're getting for loan players. I would be absolutely astonished if we're getting a million pounds from Ipswich for Pennington, I wouldn't be surprised if there was no fee at all. They've got about half a dozen PL players on loan I think, there's not a chance they're paying proper fees for them all, it would be financial suicide.
 
Good general overview but there's a few things I would dispute.

I wouldn't say it's 'wrong' to say it would be good to get rid of Baines, Jagielka and McCarthy. You're potentially talking about losing what, £150-180k a week off the wage bill there? The 3 of them have started 5 PL games between them this season, they don't need replacing with a transfer fee and new wage. Theoretically Holgate, Robinson and Williams/Baningime could take their places and cost us nothing, it's definitely a good thing.

I think you're also hugely overestimating the fees we're getting for loan players. I would be absolutely astonished if we're getting a million pounds from Ipswich for Pennington, I wouldn't be surprised if there was no fee at all. They've got about half a dozen PL players on loan I think, there's not a chance they're paying proper fees for them all, it would be financial suicide.

All fair points, of course everyone will have different opinions on players calibers and values to the squad, giving youth its fling etc that piece is subjective.

You are right also, i dont know exactly what the figure is on Pennington so im speculating and perhaps picking a nice round figure as my intent was to illustrate a principal, maybe i am over estimating, information on loan fees isnt widely available or if it is i haven't come across a good source and ive seen a few sources trying to guess.
 
Good general overview but there's a few things I would dispute.

I wouldn't say it's 'wrong' to say it would be good to get rid of Baines, Jagielka and McCarthy. You're potentially talking about losing what, £150-180k a week off the wage bill there? The 3 of them have started 5 PL games between them this season, they don't need replacing with a transfer fee and new wage. Theoretically Holgate, Robinson and Williams/Baningime could take their places and cost us nothing, it's definitely a good thing.

I think you're also hugely overestimating the fees we're getting for loan players. I would be absolutely astonished if we're getting a million pounds from Ipswich for Pennington, I wouldn't be surprised if there was no fee at all. They've got about half a dozen PL players on loan I think, there's not a chance they're paying proper fees for them all, it would be financial suicide.
You need to familiarise yourself with Moutamatics mate...a form of calculation that exaggerates outgoings, pioneered by our very own @MarcelsGoat
 

I’m just glad my hard earned pittance of season ticket money doesn’t make a difference to those wages, just goes on fixing the loos in the LGS.
Come on Marcel keep up the good work!
 
I beg your pardon??
I'm just informing another member of the forum of your revolutionary new way of calculating savings for the club by going with a maximum wage stated in the blogosphere for every player out on loan and multiplying the total by about 150 weeks rather than the 20 odd they've been on loan for.

A Nobel prize is in the offing for your invention of Moutamatics.
 
I'm just informing another member of the forum of your revolutionary new way of calculating savings for the club by going with a maximum wage stated in the blogosphere for every player out on loan and multiplying the total by about 150 weeks rather than the 20 odd they've been on loan for.

A Nobel prize is in the offing for your invention of Moutamatics.

DAVE HAS OFFICALLY LOST THE PLOT HERE

#PRAYFORDAVE
 

I'm just informing another member of the forum of your revolutionary new way of calculating savings for the club by going with a maximum wage stated in the blogosphere for every player out on loan and multiplying the total by about 150 weeks rather than the 20 odd they've been on loan for.

A Nobel prize is in the offing for your invention of Moutamatics.

I reckon about 20m all told Dave, with wages and loan fees.

But thats 20m back into the coffers, rather than 20m wasted.

As I said earlier, when your struggling to sell a player like Niasse, who was bought for only 13m and is on very modest wages you have to wonder just what the hell is going on. 150m spent by ALL teams in this January window, last year it was around 500m spent, with 180m spent on Deadline Day alone.

These are football clubs with close to 2billion income per annum and they aint spending money, something weird is going on.
 
I'm just informing another member of the forum of your revolutionary new way of calculating savings for the club by going with a maximum wage stated in the blogosphere for every player out on loan and multiplying the total by about 150 weeks rather than the 20 odd they've been on loan for.

A Nobel prize is in the offing for your invention of Moutamatics.
Well, if anyone is the worlds foremost expert in revoluationary new ways of calculating revenue/expenses(you can look those words up on Dictionary.com) its you. Your mathematically methods and economic understanding are legendary, as no one the world over has ever seen them before. I just dont think he can catch you in that.
 
I reckon about 20m all told Dave, with wages and loan fees.

But thats 20m back into the coffers, rather than 20m wasted.

As I said earlier, when your struggling to sell a player like Niasse, who was bought for only 13m and is on very modest wages you have to wonder just what the hell is going on. 150m spent by ALL teams in this January window, last year it was around 500m spent, with 180m spent on Deadline Day alone.

These are football clubs with close to 2billion income per annum and they aint spending money, something weird is going on.
I said £20M yesterday, then you came back and stuck by your £80M figure!

Anyway, yes, this January was a bizarrely slow window for sales. However, the damage done by Brands was in the summer when he failed to get fees in for more than two players. He's the architect of his own problems here with so many now out on loan - because he's come up with/agreed to a policy of selling to buy in order to restructure this current squad.

He's either a poor strategist or a doormat for the board...either of which we dont need in a DoF.

His role here is to facilitate a manager - he's failed on that. Utterly.
 
The squad is far more complex then that mate. Mirallas also has a contract i think until 2020.

Firstly most people look at the squad from a footballing perspective, how great it would be to sell players and replace them with others from a business point of view its far different.

There are many dynamics at play in terms of squad management and a deal being in the best interests of the club. Let me explain a few key points.

Weighing up what you get for a player i.e. selling Bolaise for 5 million, doesn't mean the club is making 5 million. Players transfer fees are usually made in installments of 3 or 5 years. I suspect ours are mostly 5 years. So if you sign Bolasie for 27 million and he has two and half years left on his contract, he has a book price of 13.5 million i.e. what we still owe Palace for him. Getting 5 million for him sees us pretty much crystallizes a loss of 8.5 million. Now we may be prepared to do that on a couple of occasions in fact we did this and made a huge loss on Klassen, but we cant afford to do it on all our players, you are looking at the likes of Walcott, Tosun, Schnderlin, Bolaise and most of the lads out on loan. So those players are really difficult to get rid of with out a loss and long periods on their contracts because their market value has dropped since we signed them, if we do sell them lower we are taking on 10s of millions cummlitive losses, obviously wages in mitigation of the context of any deal have to be factored into. But the player isnt likely to volutarily take a lower wage, nor a club take on their existing wage unless the transfer fee was lower. We are already operating a 30 mill loss this season in my opinion.

Then you look at players, who are low hanging fruit, Baines and Jagielka out of contract, McCarthy maybe even Coleman. A football fan looks at that and rubs there hands and says great we will get them off the wage bill and have more money. Wrong, because these lads have been at the club so long we dont owe anything on the transfer fees and the only outgoing is on their wage. So essentially if you let Baines and Jageilka go or McCarthy you are creating a space in the squad that needs to be filled by a transfer fee and giving them leaving players wage. Its always a good thing to have have long standing players around with zero liability in a transfer fee. Colemans case is interesting in that his book price is very low and would command a big fee.

Then we have the players who would bring in a profit i.e. more then what we paid. You are looking at the players you wouldn't look to loose here, Richalison, Pickford, Digne, Gueye and Lookman. Not ideal selling any of those, but break glass should the capital be needed.

Academy players are interesting, they dont have a book price and are pure profit. People were questioning the decision of giving Pennington a new deal in the summer. Its a no brainier, he has a profile in the championship, clubs willing to pay 1 mill every season to loan him and eventually he will be sold. All pure profit, similarly anyone on loan from the academy or sold is pure profit. This is something Chelsea do very well.

So essentially the squad is dynamic to the context of the deal we have with player, that sets the criteria for the context of any deal out. Its is far more complicated then looking at the squad and picking the players that need to be sold and saying they will be sold for so much then so much that can then be invested into the team, its not how it works at all. It why net spend isn't worth anything. To illustrate what i mean take Mori's deal in the summer, we sold him for less then we paid, but because we had almost paid his whole transfer fee when we sold him, we made about a 7mill profit on him.

You can see in all the above why the role of DOF has become so vogue as its complex and skilled to navigate in budgets.
Good general overview but there's a few things I would dispute.

I wouldn't say it's 'wrong' to say it would be good to get rid of Baines, Jagielka and McCarthy. You're potentially talking about losing what, £150-180k a week off the wage bill there? The 3 of them have started 5 PL games between them this season, they don't need replacing with a transfer fee and new wage. Theoretically Holgate, Robinson and Williams/Baningime could take their places and cost us nothing, it's definitely a good thing.

I think you're also hugely overestimating the fees we're getting for loan players. I would be absolutely astonished if we're getting a million pounds from Ipswich for Pennington, I wouldn't be surprised if there was no fee at all. They've got about half a dozen PL players on loan I think, there's not a chance they're paying proper fees for them all, it would be financial suicide.
All fair points, of course everyone will have different opinions on players calibers and values to the squad, giving youth its fling etc that piece is subjective.

You are right also, i dont know exactly what the figure is on Pennington so im speculating and perhaps picking a nice round figure as my intent was to illustrate a principal, maybe i am over estimating, information on loan fees isnt widely available or if it is i haven't come across a good source and ive seen a few sources trying to guess.

I think we took a big hit on Klaassen but i think we will be able to take hits on 2 players this summer due to the amount of wages we will free up from out of contract players.

If Mirallas/gana (or any low book value players) are sold or of course youngsters i think we will look to sell others for losses where we have already covered this shortfall with other players leaving.

That may well be how we move players out at a loss.
 
Well, if anyone is the worlds foremost expert in revoluationary new ways of calculating revenue/expenses(you can look those words up on Dictionary.com) its you. Your mathematically methods and economic understanding are legendary, as no one the world over has ever seen them before. I just dont think he can catch you in that.
My field of expertise is pie charts mate.
 

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