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New Everton Stadium

The binman chronicles said:
No doubt things go up and down but still nothing that would wipe out our income to not be able to afford the repayments and even if that was the case the council will be covering it.

If they have seen the business plans and are happy to cover it so should you be. You keep mentioning half a billion but it doesn't remain half a billion unless you pay interest only. We have to have a 5 year slush fund to cover for the troughs, the TV deal income covers 3 years at least so there is already 8 years out of 40 sorted. I would bet my house it will remain good for another 7 on top by which time we will owe 300 million.

If at that point it costs 800 million to build that sort of stadium i reckon we can be fairly pleased with ourselves.

Still you are missing the point that there are clubs knocking around in League 1 that can afford 15 million a year and whatever happens to the market it will still be above that level.
Click to expand...
Do you think if attendances started to dwindle and there were half empty stadiums across the board that tv companies would want any part of it...or would at least be willing to pay the cash sums they pay now or may be envisaged to be having to pay in the future?

It all goes together.
 
davek said:
Average English top flight attendances in the last half century or so...

2016 37,000

2000 30,000

1992 22,000

1985 18,000

1973 30,000

1968 33,000


...you get the picture.
Click to expand...

I get the point you're making re the up and down nature of attendances, but you must know that's a horrible dataset that.

6 data points, at increments of 5, 12, 7, 8 and 16 years, with variance in the make-up of clubs that contribute to each data point, including massive variance in the possible highest attendances in a given year.

Doesn't really tell you anything.

Try this, which is a little less unpredictable. Everton average attendance back to 50-51

Season Lge Att
1950-51 42,924
1951-52 37,391
1952-53 32,629
1953-54 44,493
1954-55 46,394
1955-56 42,768
1956-57 35,076
1957-58 39,157
1958-59 39,171
1959-60 40,788
1960-61 43,448
1961-62 41,432
1962-63 51,460
1963-64 49,401
1964-65 42,062
1965-66 38,498
1966-67 42,606
1967-68 46,983
1968-69 45,958
1969-70 49,531
1970-71 41,090
1971-72 37,242
1972-73 34,471
1973-74 35,351
1974-75 40,021
1975-76 27,115
1976-77 30,046
1977-78 39,513
1978-79 35,456
1979-80 28,711
1980-81 26,112
1981-82 24,672
1982-83 20,310
1983-84 19,288
1984-85 32,131
1985-86 32,388
1986-87 32,977
1987-88 27,782
1988-89 27,787
1989-90 26,353
1990-91 25,127
1991-92 23,141
1992-93 20,457
1993-94 22,886
1994-95 31,368
1995-96 35,439
1996-97 36,188
1997-98 35,355
1998-99 36,202
1999-00 34,880
2000-01 34,131
2001-02 34,004
2002-03 38,481
2003-04 38,837
2004-05 36,834
2005-06 36,827
2006-07 36,739
2007-08 36,955
2008-09 35,667
2009-10 36,725
2010-11 36,039
2011-12 33,228
2012-13 36,356
2013-14 37,732
2014-15 38,406
2015-16 38,124
2016-17 39,352
 

An interesting comment from a Indian football expert, (now thats a phrase you wouldnt have seen that many years ago for a start). He said the PL viewing figures in India, every weekend, exceed the population of the UK.
 
roydo said:
An interesting comment from a Indian football expert, (now thats a phrase you wouldnt have seen that many years ago for a start). He said the PL viewing figures in India, every weekend, exceed the population of the UK.
Click to expand...
In that case we need to stop any of this chatter about cheese rooms in new grounds and fire up the tandoor in the curry room!
 
roydo said:
An interesting comment from a Indian football expert, (now thats a phrase you wouldnt have seen that many years ago for a start). He said the PL viewing figures in India, every weekend, exceed the population of the UK.
Click to expand...
Never mind that Raymond. Can you threadban all the posters of the off topic posts I'm about to flag please?

Page after page of round in circles nonsense with little or no relation to a new stadium.

Thanks x
 

Amw79 said:
I get the point you're making re the up and down nature of attendances, but you must know that's a horrible dataset that.

6 data points, at increments of 5, 12, 7, 8 and 16 years, with variance in the make-up of clubs that contribute to each data point, including massive variance in the possible highest attendances in a given year.

Doesn't really tell you anything.

Try this, which is a little less unpredictable. Everton average attendance back to 50-51

Season Lge Att
1950-51 42,924
1951-52 37,391
1952-53 32,629
1953-54 44,493
1954-55 46,394
1955-56 42,768
1956-57 35,076
1957-58 39,157
1958-59 39,171
1959-60 40,788
1960-61 43,448
1961-62 41,432
1962-63 51,460
1963-64 49,401
1964-65 42,062
1965-66 38,498
1966-67 42,606
1967-68 46,983
1968-69 45,958
1969-70 49,531
1970-71 41,090
1971-72 37,242
1972-73 34,471
1973-74 35,351
1974-75 40,021
1975-76 27,115
1976-77 30,046
1977-78 39,513
1978-79 35,456
1979-80 28,711
1980-81 26,112
1981-82 24,672
1982-83 20,310
1983-84 19,288
1984-85 32,131
1985-86 32,388
1986-87 32,977
1987-88 27,782
1988-89 27,787
1989-90 26,353
1990-91 25,127
1991-92 23,141
1992-93 20,457
1993-94 22,886
1994-95 31,368
1995-96 35,439
1996-97 36,188
1997-98 35,355
1998-99 36,202
1999-00 34,880
2000-01 34,131
2001-02 34,004
2002-03 38,481
2003-04 38,837
2004-05 36,834
2005-06 36,827
2006-07 36,739
2007-08 36,955
2008-09 35,667
2009-10 36,725
2010-11 36,039
2011-12 33,228
2012-13 36,356
2013-14 37,732
2014-15 38,406
2015-16 38,124
2016-17 39,352
Click to expand...
Doesn't that ^^^ show the same trend? Peaks and valleys.

Move 40 years either way there from the earliest and latest seasons and you have within it two cycles of boom and decline. That would be my worry in terms of debt for the new stadium. Long term cycles of consumption. The causes for them can be multiple, of course.
 
davek said:
Do you think if attendances started to dwindle and there were half empty stadiums across the board that tv companies would want any part of it...or would at least be willing to pay the cash sums they pay now or may be envisaged to be having to pay in the future?

It all goes together.
Click to expand...

As I have said before it is a fairly small percentage of income it wouldn't matter. Football would go back to what it was where players would be paid normal-ish salaries and the club would carry on paying for the ground as its number 1 priority.

18 games (usually there are more) x 50k (if we do well, should get way more) @ £25 (a club like Northampton charge £24 now...) is still over 22 million, without any TV, merchandise, sponsorship inc. naming rights, corporate - which there still will be if the location is good, boxes will be just cheaper than they are now.

You are caught up in too many disaster case scenarios. If we decided to buy Lionel Messi for 500 million funded over 40 years then you could have this reaction about putting the club at risk. A stadium on the waterfront is the best thing that could possibly happen to this club.
 
davek said:
Long term cycles of consumption.
Click to expand...

Football, sport in general really, has never has a long term cycle of declining income though. Some sports have been run poorly, or missed the commercial train, (Rugby League springs to mind).

But like anything, there is a limit to the amount of people watching it, paying to be associated with it, ergo, a limit to the income generated.

And to shoehorn my repeated point in, there is a much more important limit to Evertons chance of building a waterfront ground. We are actually at it.

Its literally, now. Or never.
 
davek said:
Doesn't that ^^^ show the same trend? Peaks and valleys.

Move 40 years either way there from the earliest and latest seasons and you have within it two cycles of boom and decline. That would be my worry in terms of debt for the new stadium. Long term cycles of consumption. The causes for them can be multiple, of course.
Click to expand...

Which was why my first sentence said I get the point you're making, but as someone who works in stats and data analysis I nearly vomited at your choice of indicators.

Other data would make it more interesting (to me), our max capacity in Each season - then the %. Then look at the high and low outliers for reasons - I.e when was the park end built so capacity temporarily reduced etc, also what was our league finish in each season, is there correlation.

When I get a chance, I'll dig a level deeper, but certainly EFC will have done hugely deep analysis of this.
 

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