Newcastle Utd (and Viz)

[The Fish]

Collapsing oil prices, certainly in the short-medium term will not be beneficial to a country who's wealth and assets depend centrally on oil. That's quite a simple analysis to grasp.

Not beneficial, but not catastrophic. Apparently the whole point of PIF is to diversify their wealth away from volatile markets like Oil.

 

[catcherintherye]

Saudi Arabia is the winner from oil's historic price plunge, analysts say

Saudi Arabia will be best positioned to weather the impact of an unprecedented collapse in U.S. oil prices, analysts told CNBC on Tuesday.

www.cnbc.com

Other pieces paint a bleaker picture. I would assume that the wealth of the Sovereign Funds is so stratospheric it won't be damaged too much, but their income may be?

Just having a look at the article, did you read it?

I mean it can be summed up by this statement within it “Saudi Arabia and Russia have both won here, but it’s a very pyrrhic victory,”

The article essentially "won" as they as best placed to withstand the pressure that is going to come from this. I don't know how informed you are of what is happening, but the dominant reading is, Saudi and Russia are going to dismantle the US shale industry. They can essentially keep losing money, for longer, put the US industry under and when that happens have a monopoly.

There's little doubt because of the structure of Saudi, they are well placed to do this, but at what cost? It would enormously deplete resources, and the value of their assets will shrink as a result. They may not recover much after it as well (we are presuming demand goes back to pre March levels, which is questionable.

More than this, if this is the aim this is an act of war. There will be retaliation. Saudi's protected status as a state will come under fire. Efforts will be made to dismantle the wealth of the regime. It will not be unanswered.

For Newcastle, best case reading is that they now have substantially less assets than a week ago, and even less disposable income. They are also ploughing their assets into a prolonged war with the US over oil, that could take many years. I am not sure how consistent that is, with keeping the tap on in terms of spending in other areas. It would not be illogical to assume that spending in other areas may have to be reigned in somewhat.

Worst case scenario, along with the above it's actually just a more anarchic measure, and Saudi start being viewed as a pariah state, with sanctions. Serious pressure placed upon UK government to freeze assets they may have in this country and prevent spending.

Most of the stuff about them not raising the funds, potentially being not who they claim etc is a lot less serious than the stuff around oil. Without being able to sell oil, their assets and money collapses.

 

[The Fish]

Fish won't have it, but if the entire RS squad decided to take a dump, during the warm up at St James Park, 50 thousand obese replica shirt wearing mutants, would give them a minutes applause.

Dunno where this myth that Newcastle fans love Liverpool has come from. Literally none of the lads I know want them to win the league and have little good to say about your bitter rivals.

 

[catcherintherye]

Not beneficial, but not catastrophic. Apparently the whole point of PIF is to diversify their wealth away from volatile markets like Oil.

I have responded to you above. I think what has happened quite comfortably fits into the "catastrophic" for Saudi. The issue is really how bad is it going to get, as opposed to whether it is bad or not.

There will be attempts to diversify. Without the sale of oil though, those will dissipate into dust.

 

[MikeH72]

He is lauded because he turned the club around, got us promoted as champions, delivered a strong finish in the first season back, brought in some good players, played better football, and was trying to push the club beyond the limited ambition of Mike Ashley.

It's no great shock that your enmity for Liverpool means you don't like/rate Benitez, I guess.

Turned the club around by getting the most expensive squad in the Championship promoted? He was able to sign players like Matt Ritchie from Premier League clubs, he was hardly battling against the odds was he? I'd hazard a guess Bruce would've comfortably won promotion with that squad as he did with a skint Hull.

Was he really trying to push the club further? Why did he ditch you at the first opportunity for a pay day in China then? The "played better football" is utter nonsense too by the way, Newcastle were widely regarded as one of the worst anti-football sides in the league. The game at Goodison when we had Allardyce towards the end of that season was the worst couple of hours of sport I have ever sat through. Don't think there was a shot on goal in the entire second half, your manager played for a 1-0 defeat.

In summary, not a single one of those things you mentioned are impressive in the slightest.

 

[catcherintherye]

Dunno where this myth that Newcastle fans love Liverpool has come from. Literally none of the lads I know want them to win the league and have little good to say about your bitter rivals.

I think it might come from Liverpool fans themselves.

 

[The Fish]

Just having a look at the article, did you read it?

I mean it can be summed up by this statement within it “Saudi Arabia and Russia have both won here, but it’s a very pyrrhic victory,”

The article essentially "won" as they as best placed to withstand the pressure that is going to come from this. I don't know how informed you are of what is happening, but the dominant reading is, Saudi and Russia are going to dismantle the US shale industry. They can essentially keep losing money, for longer, put the US industry under and when that happens have a monopoly.

There's little doubt because of the structure of Saudi, they are well placed to do this, but at what cost? It would enormously deplete resources, and the value of their assets will shrink as a result. They may not recover much after it as well (we are presuming demand goes back to pre March levels, which is questionable.

More than this, if this is the aim this is an act of war. There will be retaliation. Saudi's protected status as a state will come under fire. Efforts will be made to dismantle the wealth of the regime. It will not be unanswered.

For Newcastle, best case reading is that they now have substantially less assets than a week ago, and even less disposable income. They are also ploughing their assets into a prolonged war with the US over oil, that could take many years. I am not sure how consistent that is, with keeping the tap on in terms of spending in other areas. It would not be illogical to assume that spending in other areas may have to be reigned in somewhat.

Worst case scenario, along with the above it's actually just a more anarchic measure, and Saudi start being viewed as a pariah state, with sanctions. Serious pressure placed upon UK government to freeze assets they may have in this country and prevent spending.

Most of the stuff about them not raising the funds, potentially being not who they claim etc is a lot less serious than the stuff around oil. Without being able to sell oil, their assets and money collapses.

So, the "best case scenario" is terrible and the worst case is catastrophic? I think you're over-egging the pudding a bit.

 

[MikeH72]

Dunno where this myth that Newcastle fans love Liverpool has come from. Literally none of the lads I know want them to win the league and have little good to say about your bitter rivals.

It's actually not a myth. Maybe you just hang around with a 2% of normal lads in your fanbase.

 

[catcherintherye]

So, the "best case scenario" is terrible and the worst case is catastrophic? I think you're over-egging the pudding a bit.

For Saudi yes. Are you aware of the significance of what has just happened with oil over the last few days mate? Nobody felt it possible for oil to go below $20. It sunk to minus -40. It's the lowest collapse the world has ever seen, by some distance.

With respect I'm not sure you're really grasping the severity of what we have seen.

 

[The Fish]

Turned the club around by getting the most expensive squad in the Championship promoted? He was able to sign players like Matt Ritchie from Premier League clubs, he was hardly battling against the odds was he? I'd hazard a guess Bruce would've comfortably won promotion with that squad as he did with a skint Hull.

Was he really trying to push the club further? Why did he ditch you at the first opportunity for a pay day in China then? The "played better football" is utter nonsense too by the way, Newcastle were widely regarded as one of the worst anti-football sides in the league. The game at Goodison when we had Allardyce towards the end of that season was the worst couple of hours of sport I have ever sat through.

In summary, not a single one of those things you mentioned are impressive in the slightest.

Aston Villa spent more in that season than Newcastle did (c£77m vs c£58m) and were managed for most of it by... Steve Bruce. Who failed to get them promoted that season and failed to get them promoted in the following season and was himself sacked in the 18/19 after guiding them to 1 win in 9, and 12th in the table.

He left Newcastle because he'd been repeatedly lied to by the owner and his efforts to improve the club (on and off the pitch) were stymied.

Other than all that, you're spot on mate.

 

[Walken]

Why does the fat man get lauded for clearing the same low bar while playing the same atrocious football?

Indeed, Rafael is a picante alladyce

 

[The Fish]

It's actually not a myth. Maybe you just hang around with a 2% of normal lads in your fanbase.

Orrrrr you've got it wrong?

 

[The Fish]

For Saudi yes. Are you aware of the significance of what has just happened with oil over the last few days mate? Nobody felt it possible for oil to go below $20. It sunk to minus -40. It's the lowest collapse the world has ever seen, by some distance.

With respect I'm not sure you're really grasping the severity of what we have seen.

I do get it and the price war being waged could well knacker the US, and have severe detriments to oil states like Qatar and S.A, but I do not think it will be the catastrophe for Newcastle United that you appear to be suggesting?

PIF aren't suddenly going broke, at worst they'll not flash the cash as much as they'd like, but they couldn't do that much anyway because of FFP.

 

[MikeH72]

Aston Villa spent more in that season than Newcastle did (c£77m vs c£58m) and were managed for most of it by... Steve Bruce. Who failed to get them promoted that season and failed to get them promoted in the following season and was himself sacked in the 18/19 after guiding them to 1 win in 9, and 12th in the table.

He left Newcastle because he'd been repeatedly lied to by the owner and his efforts to improve the club (on and off the pitch) were stymied.

Other than all that, you're spot on mate.

Aston Villa had been relegated with about 16 points that season, they had a far, far worse squad than Newcastle. Not a chance the Spanish Allardyce gets promoted with that Villa side.

Left because he’d been lied to by the owner hahahahaha yeah sound. Nothing at all to do with a £10m contract being waved in front of his face or anything. I’m sure he just loved your pitiful club and grim fanbase, if it wasn’t for that pesky Ashley (who’s shrewd managing of the club finances meant that you were in a position to throw money at Premier League standard players and bounce straight back up when relegated) he’d deffo have stayed. Grow up.

Glad you acknowledge I was spot on about the fat man’s style of football anyway x

 

[MikeH72]

Orrrrr you've got it wrong?

I’m afraid that isn’t the case unfortunately mate.