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Newcastle Utd (and Viz)

Archie Knox said:
Any Saudi-led ownership of any sports club in the UK should immediately by blocked by the Football Association. How a country with such an abysmal human rights record can be given approval to own a football club here is beyond me. But when it comes to money I guess the FA is prepared to turn a blind eye.
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Fully agree its absolutely disgraceful but unfortunately they have an abysmal record for failing literally anyone - god knows how bad you have to be?
 
Foot Long Hot Dog said:
I was being glib, off course there’d be a negotiation over price, but it doesn’t explain why the Saudis want Staveley on board with a 10% stake.

Let me explain. If they’re genuinely going to invest huge sums into the club, then in doing so they’ll increase its value over time. Staveley hasn’t got the means to form part of any huge investment, and yet her stake would increase in value off the back of Saudi investment cash. Say they made it into a £2BN club, her stake would have grown to a value of £200m, it just doesn’t happen.
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I make you right, and what it hints at is that they are not going to want to go and pile a load of money in only for other people to gain credit from it. I'm not even sure why they would have the Reuben brothers involved. You'd just pay Staveley a retainer.
 
If Newcastle get taken over, they'll get taken over. If their owner invests a load of money, then they'll go on a buying spree. Same as City, same as Chelsea. Same as us to a smaller amount a couple of years ago.

They have a decent stadium, no local rivals and could fill the stadium if they are playing reasonably attractive football and are getting results. How ready the north east for developments such as Bramley Moor and the surrounding area or Eastlands around City, I do not know.

On the other hand, how many takeovers is this now? I will believe it when I see it. No better time to buy though - in the midst of a huge economic contraction if you think the football market will bounce back to where it was before the coronavirus hit. We shall see what we shall see...
 
Foot Long Hot Dog said:
I was being glib, off course there’d be a negotiation over price, but it doesn’t explain why the Saudis want Staveley on board with a 10% stake.

Let me explain. If they’re genuinely going to invest huge sums into the club, then in doing so they’ll increase its value over time. Staveley hasn’t got the means to form part of any huge investment, and yet her stake would increase in value off the back of Saudi investment cash. Say they made it into a £2BN club, her stake would have grown to a value of £200m, it just doesn’t happen.
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Yes genuinely puzzling but they weren't prepared to pay anything approaching 380 or perhaps even 300m and so a far more compex and imaginative deal could well have been concocted. Of course you would accept if it was bound to be a good deal with such exponential growth then why wouldn't they just pay the price, but there was obviously a shortfall and possibly Stavely saw an opportunity.

If the scenario you paint unfolds and she capitalises on player and other investment in the club from the Saudi's which then moves them quickly forward into the elite then it would be a starting return for her and far more than is normal, but there are risks with obstacles such as FFP etc in the way, nothing is absolutely certain and possibly why the Saudis wanted limited exposure at the point of purchase? Who knows.
 
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Chris O'Connor said:
Yes genuinely puzzling but they weren't prepared to pay anything approaching 380 or perhaps even 300m and so a far more compex and imaginative deal could well have been concocted. Of course you would accept if it was bound to be a good deal with such exponential growth then why wouldn't they just pay the price, but there was obviously a shortfall and possibly Stavely saw an opportunity.

If the scenario you paint unfolds and she capitalises on player and other investment in the club from the Saudi's which then moves them quickly forward into the elite then it would be a starting return for her and far more than is normal, but there are risks with obstacles such as FFP etc in the way, nothing is absolutely certain and possibly why the Saudis wanted limited exposure at the point of purchase? Who knows.
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Someone is still going to have to explain this to me. If my friend wants to buy a dairy milk and can only afford 80%, so I lend him the 20% that I myself had loaned to me, but he is only going to give me a 10% share? Don't think many people would go for it.
 

Chris O'Connor said:
These must be questions unanswered as I couldn't possibly know the answers only someone with the inside knowledge of her many business dealings I.e. Amanda Stavely and her advisors, could provide you such detail.

The complexities of buying such a football club are well documented , Mike Ashley wanting more than others estimate it's worth being primary amongst them.

It's never as straight forward as just name your price and someone will buy anyway when he overprices it. He has always said he wants out (but on his terms, which are often extortionate). Its easy to simplify but life and business rarely are that simple.
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I've really enjoyed your input on this thread mate. There's little doubt there are some serious people potentially in the background of this. My question really is not that it's not crazy practice to give up part of the shares to someone or that taking a loan to do it isn't always done, or that even keeping Mike Ashley involved at some level isn't done in some cases. All of these things individually can be done. Together it's a little stranger though. The point I'd say though is it doesn't stink of an organisation who are going to try and replicate what City/Chelsea did.

If your plan was to be that aggressive, and to be winning leagues in 2-3 years, you have little need for the middle men, and frankly wouldn't want Ashley's stench anywhere near it. If you were really committed to the project you could just make Ashley an offer, give Staveley a certain fee, and frankly you wouldn't want or need the Reuben brothers.

From the outside, and given how long it's taken, and the negotiations that have gone on I would guess that Staveley has a management team ready to run the club. I would doubt she has the Saudi fund fully on board, or even most of them partly on board. She may have got 1 or 2 rogue members of the family to commit (a Prince Harry eqiuvalent.) They might be happy to underwrite some of the costs to allow her to run things.

I think we will see most clubs having billionaires in the background. PL clubs are a growing asset and allow you to sports wash money. However there have been maybe 40 takeovers in the last 15 years, with only 2 (Manchester City and Chelsea) at a particular level. We are probably 3rd on that list of money spent now. The vast majority of takeovers, whatever they say publicly do not back it up with hard cash.

I do wonder if the Saudi's were ever meant to be known (or indeed the Reuben brothers) on this. I suspect Moshiri is a front guy for people behind the scenes that will never be known as well (with very deep pockets).

If I was a betting man, I would say Staveley probably knows a member of the Royal family, and has convinced that person to lend some support to it, and had also got some support from the Reuben brothers. As she owns a stake, I imagine she will front a company of some sort who will run Newcastle. It's a plumb job for her and she will have probably made guarantees to both about generating a certain amounts of profits. Probably summer 1 they spend a few quid, but we will see how sustained it is.

I don't think, on balance of probabilities, either of the above are "all in" if they are messing about with each other, Staveley or worse still keeping someone like Mike Ashley involved.

This might sound odd, but it is perfectly possible, the main controllers of the Saudi Fund may not even be wholly aware of this. It's pocket change to them. They might be happy to throw a bit of pocket change at something on the off chance it comes off. I don't see an enormous commitment as yet.
 
catcherintherye said:
I make you right, and what it hints at is that they are not going to want to go and pile a load of money in only for other people to gain credit from it. I'm not even sure why they would have the Reuben brothers involved. You'd just pay Staveley a retainer.
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Staveley was also involved in the purchase of City. From all reports she is exceptionally well connected in the Middle East and is trusted implicitly. That goes a very long way with these people. As previous posters have stated Newcastle is a perfect vehicle for a takeover due to a number of good reasons. The rumours if true are that when Sheikh Mansour made the acquisition of City it came down to a shorlist of two: City & Newcastle but Ashley behaved like a complete bell end during one of the meetings (which is more than believable) and the good Sheikh walked away. Also, it was never Ashley's intent to keep Newcastle but to 'flip it' for a fast buck - which he very nearly did. If the takeover happens then it is my guess (for what its worth) they will do exactly what City did to try and circumnavigate FFP by bringing in large sponsors form the Middle East to quickly boost the revenue which will allow them to spend big on players. It will be interesting to see who these people actually are as in all walks of life there is rich people, very rich people and super rich people. City won the lottery with Sheikh Mansour as he is at the very top of the list. As widely documented he has pumped in circa £1 billion in total to the club, however, it is now valued at £3.74billion and growing. Not a shabby return on investment. For me, if they want to invest in Newcastle then let them get on with it. The Glaziers and FSG are not exactly the best owners in the world but they are tolerated and indeed even lauded as they are American and not Muslim. Any club that can help dilute the media domination of the two clubs in red is OK with me.
 
Chris O'Connor said:
Yes genuinely puzzling but they weren't prepared to pay anything approaching 380 or perhaps even 300m and so a far more compex and imaginative deal could well have been concocted. Of course you would accept if it was bound to be a good deal with such exponential growth then why wouldn't they just pay the price, but there was obviously a shortfall and possibly Stavely saw an opportunity.

If the scenario you paint unfolds and she capitalises on player and other investment in the club from the Saudi's which then moves them quickly forward into the elite then it would be a starting return for her and far more than is normal, but there are risks with obstacles such as FFP etc in the way, nothing is absolutely certain and possibly why the Saudis wanted limited exposure at the point of purchase? Who knows.
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As I've put above to you, I suspect Staveley has a team in the UK wanting to run Newcastle and has convinced a member of the Saudi team to invest £150m.
 

Uncle Vitor said:
This is extremely bad news for us, Wolves, Leicester etc IF it goes through.

Make no mistake about if, the Saudi’s will turn Newcastle into a power house over time. Financially, Moshiri and the like don’t have anywhere near the wealth of these guys.
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havrey0123 said:
The stadium is already there as is the fanbase bring back benitez for a few seasons to build a team to break the top 6.

This is bad news for us
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Another two with detachable heads @mikeh72
 
Saint Domingo said:
Another club getting taken over is always good for us I think. The more teams that have the ability to compete at the top the better. When it was the old top 4 they effectively had a closed shop. As soon as City disrupted that apple cart we had a season of Leicester Arsenal and Spurs challenging for a title not that long after. If these teams are guaranteed CL football then we will never bridge the gap to them. At the moment they all know one bad season and they are 6th and looking at their best players going and manager being fired, in the past they started a season knowing the worst they could finish was 4th. If Newcastle add to the chaos at the top and disrupts Liverpool and United from getting comfortable in there then all power to them because it will probably open doors for us as well if these teams start finishing outside the top 4.
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I agree with much of this sentiment. I think if Newcastle goes the way some are speculating it may, it will be a much bigger threat to manchester City and Liverpool than us. Or in all honesty, to Liverpool and Manchester United who's owners can't compete. They will head the Arsenal route, and as you say, without European football will start to come under pressure re debt.

I don't believe it will go that way though. I don't think anybody comes in and smashes football as Chelsea/City did. It looks a bit fishy around the edges this one.
 

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