NFL 2023 season

[TheBigIguana]

No you’re right which is why these models are kind of useless when it comes to a team like KC

They aren’t. It doesn’t mean they don’t ever cover the spread. Yesterday’s big plays were all turnovers going KC’s way something models are going to see as noisier. I mean if you think they’re so wrong you should probably be betting KC more.

 

[Kev The Rat]

They aren’t. It doesn’t mean they don’t ever cover the spread. Yesterday’s big plays were all turnovers going KC’s way something models are going to see as noisier. I mean if you think they’re so wrong you should probably be better KC more.

I certainly will back the Chiefs in the playoffs - which I see as a completely different entity to the regular season. Mahomes is 14-3 in the playoffs with 2 super bowls yet was underdog the last 2 games? Sorry, Not having it

Look at your own teams legacy of not pushing through after great regular seasons (with Lamar at least)

 

[TheBigIguana]

I certainly will back the Chiefs in the playoffs - which I see as a completely different entity to the regular season. Mahomes is 14-3 in the playoffs with 2 super bowls yet was underdog the last 2 games? Sorry, Not having it

Look at your own teams legacy of not pushing through after great regular seasons (with Lamar at least)

Yeah models (rightly) don’t look at games from 5 years ago when setting lines

 

[Pittsburgh Footy]

Also I'm still not sure if Purdy is good, or if he is a bit lucky, or if it's both

Crazy piece of luck on that catch of the safety's helmet. He just threw it up for grabs and somehow it turned into first and goal lol

That pass aside - he played great second half and made some great scrambling plays. Great feel for the game.

He doesn't have a great arm, but it's good enough. His intangibles are off the charts - high IQ and just has a knack for making plays. You can tell his teammates believe in him. A thing I continue to be impressed with from Purdy is he has incredible poise - he never has that deer in headlights look in his eyes. He has a quiet confidence.

And he has to perform week in week out against a narrative that this team is winning in spite of him, not because of him. This would take a toll on anyone - he continually has to prove that he's the best QB to lead this team of superstars.

I'm not saying he's there yet or can even come close. But he has some traits that made Brady great - also a low draft pick

I'm a Purdy believer.

 

[Pittsburgh Footy]

Lots of noise on here. Here are some facts.

1) Niners performance on D is worrying. However, it's most worrying as a run defense. Will KC run enough to take advantage
2) KC won yesterday because they punched Baltimore in the mouth early, have a great QB, and ultimately won the game because their defense is really good this year and they forced Lamar to beat them through the air. Which is what every team should do. KC didn't score second half. They didn't have to, but that's a fact.
3) Flowers doesn't fumble there, who knows what happens. That's a dagger.
4) I've seen enough from Purdy. I think the kid has something. I don't think the stage will be too big for him
5) CMC/Deebo/Kittle/Aiyuk. Even their fullback. Jennings. This team is so loaded on offense. Can KC stop it?

I think this line should be around a pick 'em, maybe KC minus 1 or 2 solely because of Mahomes. Should be a great super bowl.

 

[Kev The Rat]

Lots of noise on here. Here are some facts.

1) Niners performance on D is worrying. However, it's most worrying as a run defense. Will KC run enough to take advantage
2) KC won yesterday because they punched Baltimore in the mouth early, have a great QB, and ultimately won the game because their defense is really good this year and they forced Lamar to beat them through the air. Which is what every team should do. KC didn't score second half. They didn't have to, but that's a fact.
3) Flowers doesn't fumble there, who knows what happens. That's a dagger.
4) I've seen enough from Purdy. I think the kid has something. I don't think the stage will be too big for him
5) CMC/Deebo/Kittle/Aiyuk. Even their fullback. Jennings. This team is so loaded on offense. Can KC stop it?

I think this line should be around a pick 'em, maybe KC minus 1 or 2 solely because of Mahomes. Should be a great super bowl.

They’ve stopped the no.1, no.4 and no.6 offenses stone cold so far in the playoffs so yeah I would think they probably can.

As for SF I don’t know about now but statistically speaking their weakness has been passing D during the regular season.

Both Detroit and GB ripped through them with ease the last two games and should have won on each occasion.

 

[TheBigIguana]

That pass aside - he played great second half and made some great scrambling plays. Great feel for the game.

He doesn't have a great arm, but it's good enough. His intangibles are off the charts - high IQ and just has a knack for making plays. You can tell his teammates believe in him. A thing I continue to be impressed with from Purdy is he has incredible poise - he never has that deer in headlights look in his eyes. He has a quiet confidence.

And he has to perform week in week out against a narrative that this team is winning in spite of him, not because of him. This would take a toll on anyone - he continually has to prove that he's the best QB to lead this team of superstars.

I'm not saying he's there yet or can even come close. But he has some traits that made Brady great - also a low draft pick

I'm a Purdy believer.

I think he’s pretty objectively not. He’s the best they can probably get at the moment and he’s certainly fine enough. The whole point behind the people that aren’t “believers” or whatever is that if you had someone slightly better this team goes from great but beatable to complete Death Star. They should have been dead yesterday when Purdy tossed one into the Lions player’s face and instead they scored a TD to swing the game. That’s not because he’s playing great.

 

[wm02]

Spagnolo put on an absolute masterclass yesterday. Should be quite the matchup of the Niners running game and the Chiefs D

 

[Kev The Rat]

I think he’s pretty objectively not. He’s the best they can probably get at the moment and he’s certainly fine enough. The whole point behind the people that aren’t “believers” or whatever is that if you had someone slightly better this team goes from great but beatable to complete Death Star. They should have been dead yesterday when Purdy tossed one into the Lions player’s face and instead they scored a TD to swing the game. That’s not because he’s playing great.

They’re lucky this guy is on a rookie contract so he gets some choice weapons to work with.

Let’s see what happens when cap hell emerges like it’s begun to at Buffalo, Cincy and SD with their high priced QB’s. If they choose to pay him that is.

BTW Ravens will be next in that regard as Lamar’s numbers begin to cause issue.

The numbers for Lamar are actually horrific -

$43.5 million in 2025 and $74.5 million in both 2026 and 2027

 

[Pittsburgh Footy]

I think he’s pretty objectively not. He’s the best they can probably get at the moment and he’s certainly fine enough. The whole point behind the people that aren’t “believers” or whatever is that if you had someone slightly better this team goes from great but beatable to complete Death Star. They should have been dead yesterday when Purdy tossed one into the Lions player’s face and instead they scored a TD to swing the game. That’s not because he’s playing great.

Other than that pass he played great.

With the salary cap, you can't have a Mahomes type QB on this team - so it's a game of cheap QB keep all your studs like they have. I think Purdy is good enough at his price point to benefit the team rather than have a Mahomes with no Deebo/CMC/Aiyuk

 

[Pittsburgh Footy]

They’re lucky this guy is on a rookie contract so he gets some choice weapons to work with.

Let’s see what happens when cap hell emerges like it’s begun to at Buffalo, Cincy and SD with their high priced QB’s. If they choose to pay him that is.

BTW Ravens will be next in that regard as Lamar’s numbers begin to cause issue.

Purdy still has two more years to figure out who he is

 

[Pittsburgh Footy]

They’re lucky this guy is on a rookie contract so he gets some choice weapons to work with.

Let’s see what happens when cap hell emerges like it’s begun to at Buffalo, Cincy and SD with their high priced QB’s. If they choose to pay him that is.

BTW Ravens will be next in that regard as Lamar’s numbers begin to cause issue.

The numbers for Lamar are actually horrific -

$43.5 million in 2025 and $74.5 million in both 2026 and 2027

The best contract the Steelers ever had prior to Lamar's was Flacco signing his monster extension following his miracle run.

We can't get our house in order to take advantage so it won't matter. But between Burrow at a monster contract or Lamar I know who I'd take

 

[TheBigIguana]

They’re lucky this guy is on a rookie contract so he gets some choice weapons to work with.

Let’s see what happens when cap hell emerges like it’s begun to at Buffalo, Cincy and SD with their high priced QB’s. If they choose to pay him that is.

BTW Ravens will be next in that regard as Lamar’s numbers begin to cause issue.

The numbers for Lamar are actually horrific -

$43.5 million in 2025 and $74.5 million in both 2026 and 2027

The Ravens will not because Lamar has had them winning before this season with the worst weapons in the entire league. They’ll be fine. Whether they get over the hump who knows.

 

[Kev The Rat]

The Ravens will not because Lamar has had them winning before this season with the worst weapons in the entire league. They’ll be fine. Whether they get over the hump who knows.

Are you not paying people on D?

 

[Pittsburgh Footy]

Initial thoughts are we should be clear favourites for this. This Niners team look nowhere near the formidable unit of 2019. The QB play is on the same level from Jimmy G/Purdy. The present D is clearly worse than 2019.

I would rate this Niners team overall as considerably worse than both Buffalo and Baltimore. They have been outplayed at home 2 straight weeks.

The line has shifted to -1.5 and I would expect the Chiefs to be favourite before kick off.

There is no comparison between Jimmy G and Purdy when the game is on the line

Jimmy G doesn't have "it" whatever that is.

Purdy just makes plays. And believes in himself