POTUS 2016

[ToffeeDoug]

sort of related - but did anyone watch that thing about obama getting healthcare policy through last night? its amazing how different american and british opinion is on things like this

Sky-Plussed to watch. Really enjoyed the first one last week.

 

[TomDixie]

sort of related - but did anyone watch that thing about obama getting healthcare policy through last night? its amazing how different american and british opinion is on things like this

I came across a US Lieutenant on a recent trip and had a long, political chat with him.

First off, he was full of praise for British squaddies.

He said that he respected Obama as his Commander in Chief so wouldn't say anything negative about him aside from he disagrees with some of his policies. This in itself was a clear difference to a British viewpoint in the level of deference shown, presumably wrapped up in the President being the head of state.

Interestingly, he had no idea that the BBC and the NHS, the two most British of organisations, were both socialist in the principle of society pooling together resource in order to provide common access to services.

He also had no idea how British politics and culture was distinctly to the left of that in the US, at least on the social side. Economically it is the same establishment and their principles which hold sway on both sides of the Atlantic.

Finally, he despised Clinton as a liar who had left the nation's security at risk (the email scandal) and respected Trump for his business success in life.

 

[neil999]

Sky-Plussed to watch. Really enjoyed the first one last week.

its mental

 

[neil999]

I came across a US Lieutenant on a recent trip and had a long, political chat with him.

First off, he was full of praise for British squaddies.

He said that he respected Obama as his Commander in Chief so wouldn't say anything negative about him aside from he disagrees with some of his policies. This in itself was a clear difference to a British viewpoint in the level of deference shown, presumably wrapped up in the President being the head of state.

Interestingly, he had no idea that the BBC and the NHS, the two most British of organisations, were both socialist in the principle of society pooling together resource in order to provide common access to services.

He also had no idea how British politics and culture was distinctly to the left of that in the US, at least on the social side. Economically it is the same establishment and their principles which hold sway on both sides of the Atlantic.

Finally, he despised Clinton as a liar who had left the nation's security at risk (the email scandal) and respected Trump for his business success in life.

america is so different to europe on stuff like this, its like an alien planet

 

[TheFinnFan]

Looks like Trump will secure his nomination sooner than anyone thought

 

[TomDixie]

america is so different to europe on stuff like this, its like an alien planet

In the UK, being a really successful businessman, or the child of, just doesn't get you the same kind of respect. If anything, it can be a bit of a handicap.

Look at how Labour are targeting Zac Goldsmith in the London Mayoral elections. In the US, Goldsmith would be a fantastic name in an election race, especially when actually linked to wealth and business success.

 

[davek]

In the UK, being a really successful businessman, or the child of, just doesn't get you the same kind of respect. If anything, it can be a bit of a handicap.

Look at how Labour are targeting Zac Goldsmith in the London Mayoral elections. In the US, Goldsmith would be a fantastic name in an election race, especially when actually linked to wealth and business success.

...except he's Jewish and would fail for that reason alone.

 

[TomDixie]

Looks like Trump will secure his nomination sooner than anyone thought

Crus getting over 50% of the vote in Utah gives him all 40 of their delegates. The crushing defeat there (70%+ Cruz), as Trump is so hates by Mormons, also indicates that in a general election with Trump as the GoP nominee, it may even go Blue for the first time in 50 years. That would make any Republican bid for presidency very difficult.

It will be close but there is a real chance that Trump will fall just shy of the required delegates despite being the clear frontrunner.

If Kasich dropped out (all he is doing is splitting the anti Trump vote), then the party may screw Trump through pooling the rest of the delegate votes together behind Cruz.

That would be democratically fair, though engaging for Trump and his supporters. It would certainly kick off at the convention.

 

[neil999]

Crus getting over 50% of the vote in Utah gives him all 40 of their delegates. The crushing defeat there (70%+ Cruz), as Trump is so hates by Mormons, also indicates that in a general election with Trump as the GoP nominee, it may even go Blue for the first time in 50 years. That would make any Republican bid for presidency very difficult.

It will be close but there is a real chance that Trump will fall just shy of the required delegates despite being the clear frontrunner.

If Kasich dropped out (all he is doing is splitting the anti Trump vote), then the party may screw Trump through pooling the rest of the delegate votes together behind Cruz.

That would be democratically fair, though engaging for Trump and his supporters. It would certainly kick off at the convention.

would staunch republicans vote clinton to keep out trump? or do you reckon they just wont vote, or vote for a independent if there is one

 

[Jxg]

You're very probably right.

If anyone is interested in his views though, Bernie Sanders is live on The Young Turks (liberal, progressive US news/commentary) channel on YouTube at 10pm tonight.

At the very least the pressure he mounts from the platform and the prestige he garners may push the agenda within the Democratic party towards the more liberal end. 2020 and 2024 will be interesting, populist elections.

Hopefully there is someone to pick up Bernie's mantle.

Sanders (a socialist with significant support) and Trump (anti-establishment) have made these elections the most unique in American history but it's not going to change anything. Sanders won't get the nomination, Trump might, it'll be Clinton v Trump and Clinton will win. The true populist doesn't win an election, the 'populist' that they want to win will.

No election will ever be populist in the United States.

 

[TomDixie]

would staunch republicans vote clinton to keep out trump? or do you reckon they just wont vote, or vote for a independent if there is one

Some certainly would. E.g. There are a lot of Christian Republicans who believe in small Government but dislike the anti immigration rhetoric and his bellicose, arrogant attitude.

Also, the Trump effect has increased the number of people voting in the nomination race on both sides of the fence, out of fear of a Trump presidency.

The most interesting cross party switch is those from Trump to Bernie and vice versa.

I think that is based on the anger towards politicians and their machinations in general (why Corbyn became leader of the Labour party and Osborne has been creamed after this budget) but also as they both talk about returning jobs to America as a central plank of their platform.

 

[TomDixie]

Sanders (a socialist with significant support) and Trump (anti-establishment) have made these elections the most unique in American history but it's not going to change anything. Sanders won't get the nomination, Trump might, it'll be Clinton v Trump and Clinton will win. The true populist doesn't win an election, the 'populist' that they want to win will.

No election will ever be populist in the United States.

The ground is still shifting.

It will get there in my opinion. Bernie has raised tonnes of money for example, so financing isn't an issue for a populist candidate on the left.

 

[SerenityNigh]

Crus getting over 50% of the vote in Utah gives him all 40 of their delegates. The crushing defeat there (70%+ Cruz), as Trump is so hates by Mormons, also indicates that in a general election with Trump as the GoP nominee, it may even go Blue for the first time in 50 years. That would make any Republican bid for presidency very difficult.

It will be close but there is a real chance that Trump will fall just shy of the required delegates despite being the clear frontrunner.

If Kasich dropped out (all he is doing is splitting the anti Trump vote), then the party may screw Trump through pooling the rest of the delegate votes together behind Cruz.

That would be democratically fair, though engaging for Trump and his supporters. It would certainly kick off at the convention.

I don't know the math(s), but this guy claims Trump can't get 1,237 prior to the convention

 

[TomDixie]

I don't know the math(s), but this guy claims Trump can't get 1,237 prior to the convention

That convention will be fascinating then. There could be serious levels of violence if Trump supporters sense a conspiracy.

 

[RAFUH]

I don't know the math(s), but this guy claims Trump can't get 1,237 prior to the convention

From what I read earlier, Trump can't clinch it with the primaries, but there are enough uncommitted delegates or delegates that can switch from those that dropped out (depends on state rules) that he could get enough votes after the primaries, but before the convention to win on the first vote.