Relegation 2022/23

[toffeeblue9]

I'm feeling much more pessimistic than I was before the weekend

Results weren't kind to us - Wolves, Palace and West Ham all look like they're pulling clear

Bournemouth continue to pick up the odd surprise result and you wouldn't consider them favourites anymore

Leeds are ones to watch and obviously Leicester are now right in the thick of it, but so are we and I think overall the picture feels a little worse than before the weekend as some clubs are just about getting themselves safe, leaving us fewer clubs to bail us out

You'd assume Southampton and Forest will go, but the 3rd spot feels like it could be any from Leicester, ourselves, maybe Leeds and maybe Bournemouth (although my money would no longer be on Bournemouth at all)

A defeat at United wasn't unexpected or a disaster, but it does mean that we now need a minimum of 6 points from the games against Fulham, Crystal Palace and Newcastle

 

[The Binman]

I'm feeling much more pessimistic than I was before the weekend

Results weren't kind to us - Wolves, Palace and West Ham all look like they're pulling clear

Bournemouth continue to pick up the odd surprise result and you wouldn't consider them favourites anymore

Leeds are ones to watch and obviously Leicester are now right in the thick of it, but so are we and I think overall the picture feels a little worse than before the weekend as some clubs are just about getting themselves safe, leaving us fewer clubs to bail us out

You'd assume Southampton and Forest will go, but the 3rd spot feels like it could be any from Leicester, ourselves, maybe Leeds and maybe Bournemouth (although my money would no longer be on Bournemouth at all)

A defeat at United wasn't unexpected or a disaster, but it does mean that we now need a minimum of 6 points from the games against Fulham, Crystal Palace and Newcastle

What will be, will be. We’ve 2 wins in 8 now I think? I’m passed giving a crap, if we get relegated, we do… etc

Hopefully we won’t, but we’ve as much chance as anyone, apart from being hamstrung by the fact we hardly score. So either he finds a solution with what he has, dcl gets fit or we carry on regardless, and hope for the best - I expect it’s the last option. I also expect Leicester to get the new manager boost from smith he will at least get them together, so this will make it harder. I also think we will get beat by Fulham, just to make things even harder.

Anyway, let’s hope we survive and let’s not get too downhearted - it’s only football!

 

[davek]

I'm feeling much more pessimistic than I was before the weekend

Results weren't kind to us - Wolves, Palace and West Ham all look like they're pulling clear

Bournemouth continue to pick up the odd surprise result and you wouldn't consider them favourites anymore

Leeds are ones to watch and obviously Leicester are now right in the thick of it, but so are we and I think overall the picture feels a little worse than before the weekend as some clubs are just about getting themselves safe, leaving us fewer clubs to bail us out

You'd assume Southampton and Forest will go, but the 3rd spot feels like it could be any from Leicester, ourselves, maybe Leeds and maybe Bournemouth (although my money would no longer be on Bournemouth at all)

A defeat at United wasn't unexpected or a disaster, but it does mean that we now need a minimum of 6 points from the games against Fulham, Crystal Palace and Newcastle

All the fans of those teams are saying they expect an Everton team led by Dyche - who's done well since getting here - to stay up.

No team is safe apart from Palace and possibly Wolves.

We have Chelsea, Spurs and United out the way now with only City to come that you think it should be zero points from. And we have a golden chance on Saturday to get to 30 points and be thereafter staring downhill at the finishing line.

Nil Desperandum!!!!

 

[Cjplennon]

I'm feeling much more pessimistic than I was before the weekend

Results weren't kind to us - Wolves, Palace and West Ham all look like they're pulling clear

Bournemouth continue to pick up the odd surprise result and you wouldn't consider them favourites anymore

Leeds are ones to watch and obviously Leicester are now right in the thick of it, but so are we and I think overall the picture feels a little worse than before the weekend as some clubs are just about getting themselves safe, leaving us fewer clubs to bail us out

You'd assume Southampton and Forest will go, but the 3rd spot feels like it could be any from Leicester, ourselves, maybe Leeds and maybe Bournemouth (although my money would no longer be on Bournemouth at all)

A defeat at United wasn't unexpected or a disaster, but it does mean that we now need a minimum of 6 points from the games against Fulham, Crystal Palace and Newcastle

I think we have got lots of tough games out of the way. The fact we are out the bottom is reason to be optimistic. I thought by the time we had played Manure we were going to be in the bottom 3. Also its in our hands, better than having to rely on others to lose to lift us up places.

 

[Paul Rideout]

All the fans of those teams are saying they expect an Everton team led by Dyche - who's done well since getting here - to stay up.

No team is safe apart from Palace and possibly Wolves.

We have Chelsea, Spurs and United out the way now with only City to come that you think it should be zero points from. And we have a golden chance on Saturday to get to 30 points and be thereafter staring downhill at the finishing line.

Nil Desperandum!!!!

That we’re not bottom after that run of games from Arsenal at home to Saturday, and we’ve only been battered once (Arsenal away) gives me real optimism. The Forrest game shows we can perform at these away 6 pointers and be disappointed to ‘only’ pick up one.

 

[Drico]

Rounding up would give 9 points and a couple of draws is another 2, so another 11 points. 36 points and considering their GD will keep them up imo

9 points is three wins from 8. That's well in excess of a 32% win record. Without being pedantic about it, the sample size is small and the margin of error, therefore, wide, but there is little evidence that Smith will get 11 points. He might - and if he does it will likely be enough - but there's nothing in his record to suggest he will.

Put it this way. We've not exactly been blessed with fantastic managers in recent times, but if Dean Smith rocked up at Goodison with Frank's mate JT, we'd put up the shutters and board up the place. That's not to say he won't keep Leicester up and beat us along the way, but it's not an appointment that is going to intimidate anybody, in my view.

 

[Jeff Jones]

If it wasn’t for all the other teams below us being worse than us we’d be bottom.

Probably.

 

[Drico]

Writing Leicester off because they’ve appointed smith is laughable. It only takes a different view or new ideas to rejuvenate a team.

They have more attacking threat than most in the bottom half.

Are people writing them off? Truth is, we're hoping Smith is a disastrous appointment because we fear them pushing to safety at our expense.

I'd be deeply uncomfortable if the final place comes down to us or Leicester. We really need to be beating Fulham at the weekend and getting back into the pack. Then we can target Leeds, Bournemouth, and Palace.

 

[MACCA75]

Still 50/50 for me. Leicester will pull something out when it really matters, just like West Ham.
I think we are one of the 3 worst sides, so we will need Dyche to get everything spot on and a slice of luck too.

 

[Paul Rideout]

9 points is three wins from 8. That's well in excess of a 32% win record. Without being pedantic about it, the sample size is small and the margin of error, therefore, wide, but there is little evidence that Smith will get 11 points. He might - and if he does it will likely be enough - but there's nothing in his record to suggest he will.

Put it this way. We've not exactly been blessed with fantastic managers in recent times, but if Dean Smith rocked up at Goodison with Frank's mate JT, we'd put up the shutters and board up the place. That's not to say he won't keep Leicester up and beat us along the way, but it's not an appointment that is going to intimidate anybody, in my view.

Being a maths pedant. 2 wins from 8 is 25% and 3 from 8 is 37.5% … so 3 wins is closer to 32% and it’s not the price is right… you can go over the number and be closest.

 

[DanEFC92]

Just hope Leicester don't get any sort of new manager bounce.

 

[toffeeblue9]

Are people writing them off? Truth is, we're hoping Smith is a disastrous appointment because we fear them pushing to safety at our expense.

I'd be deeply uncomfortable if the final place comes down to us or Leicester. We really need to be beating Fulham at the weekend and getting back into the pack. Then we can target Leeds, Bournemouth, and Palace.

Palace are safe - they always had the kindest remaining fixtures and they need to average less than a point per game now for safety, you can forget them

According to Nate Silver and co, they have literally less than a 1% chance of relegation now

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[Drico]

That we’re not bottom after that run of games from Arsenal at home to Saturday, and we’ve only been battered once (Arsenal away) gives me real optimism. The Forrest game shows we can perform at these away 6 pointers and be disappointed to ‘only’ pick up one.

Exactly. Dyche has us competitive. If you're competitive, you start to glean points. More of the same against poorer sides keeps us up.

But we must be Fulham if we want to get out of this before the final day. It would take a Leicester implosion to prevent us going to the wire, at best, if we can't win at the weekend. Beat Fulham and it's game on. Fail to do so and all bets are off.

 

[Drico]

Palace are safe - they always had the kindest remaining fixtures and they need to average less than a point per game now for safety, you can forget them

According to Nate Silver and co, they have literally less than a 1% chance of relegation now

Premier League Predictions

FiveThirtyEight's Premier League predictions

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

I'm talking about targeting three points at their place as we play them soon.

 

[Drico]

Being a maths pedant. 2 wins from 8 is 25% and 3 from 8 is 37.5% … so 3 wins is closer to 32% and it’s not the price is right… you can go over the number and be closest.

That's why we were rounding up. I was giving them 8 points for his win record of 32%. And adding two draws to make 10. And I referred to the small sample size making this a rather fine judgement that's hardly worth being pedantic over. Bigger picture: Everton have to take care of their own business no matter what Smith does.