Relegation 2022/23

[GrandOldTeam]

We're on 32 points.

One more win gives us a 87% chance of survival.

One more win and a point gives us 95% chance of survival.

... but who knows? It depends on other teams - who saw us beating Brighton 5-1? That's not pessimism of cryarsing, it's this;

"5-1 triumph against Brighton was all the more remarkable when you consider it was the first time a team starting the day in the bottom three had won away to a top-seven side since April 2021, during which time there had been 37 such matches (D10 L27)"

There's always the odd shock result in the run in - it looks like we got it.

I felt Fulham was the difference and it would send us down - winning that would have made the difference in keeping us up, but then we go and beat Brighton to recover those 3 points.

I've wrote off Man City, just hoping we don't get any injuries/suspensions or get battered.

Depending on other results, look to take a point at Wolves and then its heart in mouth come Bournemouth. A team who tend to be a bit of a bogey team for us, a team who have already spanked us twice this season.

 

[davek]

Worry/fear manifests itself differently.

The likes of @Kev The Rat @matty1878 have taken cry arsing to the next level but its definitely not driven by 'banter' - some have just lose their composure but it's from a place of sincerity.

Yes, I completely agree for most it's nerves and - as Ive said before myself - 'reverse psychology'.

But there's been a harder edge to some. A joyousness at the mess we're in. Unforgivable for me.

 

[DanB90]

Worry/fear manifests itself differently.

The likes of @Kev The Rat @matty1878 have taken cry arsing to the next level but its definitely not driven by 'banter' - some have just lose their composure but it's from a place of sincerity.

May I speak freely?

I think Matty is a genuine bag of nerves, but I suspect Kev likes to just drop a grenade from time to time and watch the commotion.

Take his post after we beat Brighton to significantly boost our chances of survival for example.

Just wait till the premier league deal with us and we get a points deduction

 

[GrandOldTeam]

Yes, I completely agree for most it's nerves and - as Ive said before myself - 'reverse psychology'.

But there's been a harder edge to some. A joyousness at the mess we're in. Unforgivable for me.

Nah, it's coping mechanism.

 

[GrandOldTeam]

May I speak freely?

I think Matty is a genuine bag of nerves, but I suspect Kev likes to just drop a grenade from time to time and watch the commotion.

Take his post after we beat Brighton to significantly boost our chances of survival for example.

I say if we stay up we ban him mate with the banning message just a grinning Sean Dyche. The same for that dan lad who goes mental at Dyche every game but not a peep after a good result.

 

[Nymzee]

Just get this weekend's fixture out of the way and then we'll know how confident to be. Pick up a point and other fixtures go our way and I'll be much more relaxed.

 

[DanB90]

I say if we stay up we ban him mate with the banning message just a grinning Sean Dyche. The same for that dan lad who goes mental at Dyche every game but not a peep after a good result.

I just feel we could’ve done with fresh legs at Leicester

 

[MACCA75]

I think realistically one of Forest, Leeds or Leicester will at least get something at the weekend. (We might too of course)

 

[allen]

I don't know if anyone has linked to this article in here, but it's an interesting read:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/64985188

It uses the Gracenote's modelling, which I'd not seen anything of previously (I'd looked at FiveThirtyEight's a fair bit).


Some interesting tables:

The points totals and odds of survival were particularly interesting to me. 34 could be enough, 35 probably will be and 36 all-but guarantees it.

So of the matches left, 2 draws an absolute minimum, 1 win would be better but 1 win and 1 draw and we're almost certainly safe.

 

[Nymzee]

It's 10.30, far too many numbers going on in here

 

[allen]

We're on 32 points.

One more win gives us a 87% chance of survival.

One more win and a point gives us 95% chance of survival.

... but who knows? It depends on other teams - who saw us beating Brighton 5-1? That's not pessimism of cryarsing, it's this;



There's always the odd shock result in the run in - it looks like we got it.

I felt Fulham was the difference and it would send us down - winning that would have made the difference in keeping us up, but then we go and beat Brighton to recover those 3 points.

I've wrote off Man City, just hoping we don't get any injuries/suspensions or get battered.

Depending on other results, look to take a point at Wolves and then its heart in mouth come Bournemouth. A team who tend to be a bit of a bogey team for us, a team who have already spanked us twice this season.

Don't know how I missed this on the same page I've just posted the same thing.

Apologies one and all.

 

[edge]

Funny old world we are in .
I have spent my life wanting Liverpool and Newcastle to get beat every week now I want them both to win on Saturday.

 

[SunKing]

I think realistically one of Forest, Leeds or Leicester will at least get something at the weekend. (We might too of course)

I agree, we cant have the mentality that all the other sides around us are going to lose every game.

 

[Paul Rideout]

Yes, I completely agree for most it's nerves and - as Ive said before myself - 'reverse psychology'.

But there's been a harder edge to some. A joyousness at the mess we're in. Unforgivable for me.

Agreed

Some people on here are genuinely worried, and some are almost gleeful of the most negative scenarios panning out.

Stomach churning IMO

 

[Paul Rideout]

May I speak freely?

I think Matty is a genuine bag of nerves, but I suspect Kev likes to just drop a grenade from time to time and watch the commotion.

Take his post after we beat Brighton to significantly boost our chances of survival for example.

The latter reminds me of Colin the energy vampire, feeding off the negativity they create. (You need to have watched ‘what we do in the shadows’ to get that reference)