Relegation 2022/23

[davek]

If we draw two games, Forest only need the point

Yes, sorry. They'd need a point in the final two games.

 

[davek]

My mindset is get it done this weekend and go all out for a win.
Both Leeds and Leicester play after us so both would have even more pressure on them.

We need to keep our destiny in our hands and a draw just might put us in the bottom 3 come Monday night.
That means the Bournemouth game is must win and that still might not be enough.

Wolves is a must 3 points because we play first, if we played last and the other 2 never won then yes a draw would be ok.

The timing of the games is crucial as in how each team approach it.

I know we all react massively to each individual game, but this is a two part act. I think most would accept that 4 points would almost certainly hand us safety. So a point in the first of these games sets us up. And if we cant handle B'mouth at home final day then we really aren't good enough to be in the PL.

My instinct tells me:

4 points = safety
3 points = almost safe
2 points = decent chance of safety

1 point = almost certainly done for

 

[blue to the bone]

I am sure some Stathead can come up with the numbers but I recall reading somewhere that wolves score a high % of their goals in the last 15 as teams tire.

At Goodison they caught us with a late goal on the break as we pushed up and played an aimless ball forward.

 

[JLW]

I know we all react massively to each individual game, but this is a two part act. I think most would accept that 4 points would almost certainly hand us safety. So a point in the first of these games sets us up. And if we cant handle B'mouth at home final day then we really aren't good enough to be in the PL.

My instinct tells me:

4 points = safety
3 points = almost safe
2 points = decent chance of safety

1 point = almost certainly done for

Im going with 3 points guarantees safety as one team would have to win both and i dont see it, i think Leicester are done.

The one than worries me a little and i wouldnt be surprised about is Leeds away to West ham.

 

[barneygumble]

I am sure some Stathead can come up with the numbers but I recall reading somewhere that wolves score a high % of their goals in the last 15 as teams tire.

Go on, I’ll be the statto.

Since the turn of the year wolves have had the following home record in all comps.

P10 W6 D0 L4
11/13 goals they’ve scored have came outside of the last 15 minutes. Of the goals, 6 have came first half, 7 in the second.

They’ve actually only conceded 6 at home since the turn of the year, and 4 of those were against Leeds, with 4 overall being in second half.

Wolves are relatively poor away from home, but at home they’ve managed to beat Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea, Brentford and Villa in 2023, who are all top half.
Interestingly lost to Leeds, Bournemouth as their only league defeats.

 

[Thomasc]

Might get a Leeds shirt, didn’t realise they were the new Galacticos.

 

[Piranha]

Not sure where the confidence in West Ham comes from they've been almost as dross as Leeds, 6 points better over 36 games doesn't suggest some massive gap in quality.

It's not that Leeds are good, it's that West Ham aren't good and haven't been good in the Premier League for almost a year and a half.

They've been a couple of wins better than us and Leeds over that timespan.

 

[Yarrgh]

Didn't he hand in a transfer request an hour before the window closed to force a move through to Arsenal?

Knobhead

That's Chairman Bull's version and why would we not believe that this last minute transfer out of the club wasn't to sell our way out of financial implosion.

 

[Yarrgh]

I know we all react massively to each individual game, but this is a two part act. I think most would accept that 4 points would almost certainly hand us safety. So a point in the first of these games sets us up. And if we cant handle B'mouth at home final day then we really aren't good enough to be in the PL.

My instinct tells me:

4 points = safety
3 points = almost safe
2 points = decent chance of safety

1 point = almost certainly done for

If you put a minus sign in front of 1 point, I'd agree.

2 points and it would be a miracle for Leeds and Leicester to get past us.

 

[blue to the bone]

Not sure where the confidence in West Ham comes from they've been almost as dross as Leeds, 6 points better over 36 games doesn't suggest some massive gap in quality.

It's not that Leeds are good, it's that West Ham aren't good and haven't been good in the Premier League for almost a year and a half.

They've been a couple of wins better than us and Leeds over that timespan.

Same could be said for Wolves too

 

[navidson]

That's Chairman Bull's version and why would we not believe that this last minute transfer out of the club wasn't to sell our way out of financial implosion.

BBC SPORT'S DAN ROAN ON ARTETA TRANSFER​

"Arsenal offered £5m on Tuesday and £10m on Wednesday afternoon - both bids were rejected. Any deal was dead until around 1900 BST, when Arteta told Moyes he wished to leave.

"Moyes spoke to the chairman, Bill Kenwright, and said he did not want to keep a player who did not wish to play for Everton.

"Arteta was Everton's highest-paid player ever on around £75,000 a week and took a big pay cut to join Arsenal."

 

[barneygumble]

Not sure where the confidence in West Ham comes from they've been almost as dross as Leeds, 6 points better over 36 games doesn't suggest some massive gap in quality.

It's not that Leeds are good, it's that West Ham aren't good and haven't been good in the Premier League for almost a year and a half.

They've been a couple of wins better than us and Leeds over that timespan.

I think it’s more West Ham have actually improved recently, more so than their league position suggests (down to hideous away form).

Just checked and they’ve been half decent at home since they’ve played us.

P12 W7 D3 L2 in all comps, losses were against Newcastle and Liverpool.

They again are terrible away from home. Meanwhile Leeds recent away record is P10 W1 D1 L8, stats mean nothing but West Ham have been a lot better at home in 2023.

 

[Eggs]

…I know folk are looking for an angle in trying to forecast results this weekend but it’s hard to dispense logic when it comes to teams fighting relegation. Application is key, the will to refuse to lose. A few of the teams down there seem to be displaying this but that can be fragile if the pressure gets too great.

I have no idea what will happen, I’m just glad it’s only one more restless sleep before our next game. Hopefully we don’t need snookers going into the last day.

 

[Charles Hawtrey]

At Goodison they caught us with a late goal on the break as we pushed up and played an aimless ball forward.

maybe that is colouring my views.

 

[davek]

Im going with 3 points guarantees safety as one team would have to win both and i dont see it, i think Leicester are done.

The one than worries me a little and i wouldnt be surprised about is Leeds away to West ham.

Agree with all that.

Just to add: we have two chances at a win - we're at home for one game against a decent but not unbeatable team; the other we're away to a decent but low scoring team and we're in fine away form atm.

If we cant manage one win from those two we really shouldn't be in this division.