Relegation 2022/23

[catcherintherye]

6 wins and 3/4 draws out of remaining 18 is all we need.

I think this is doable, we have 4 maybe 5 winnable home games (Leeds, villa, Brentford, Fulham and Bournemouth) and we have 3/4 winnable away games (forest, palace, wolves and Leicester)

I know with our current form it looks unlikely we will pick up any points but with a new manager and the crowd up for it all the games above we can win!

We are two points off safety, don't give up now still a long way to go.

Most teams in all positions draw about 1/3 of their games. Suspect we draw at least 6 with Dyche. 5 wins and 6 draws should be enough.

 

[Runub]

There are a number of teams in the relegation dog fight. I would include everyone up to and including Forest on the current table. I see many posts suggesting we need European qualification type points gathering in the second half of the season. Fair comment but that means six or seven other teams down the bottom need to do the same more or less. Is that likely? We need to out perform three teams across the whole of the season. If we can get some momentum, and many relegation threatened teams often do just that, we can get out of this mess.

 

[MikeH72]

I havent looked much, but over recent years 35 would have been pretty good?

Just had a quick look, you have to go back years for an 18th place team to get more than 35 points. That looks a pretty reasonable marker for safety.

Under 35 points would be 90% certain relegation. It’s highly unlikely we’d survive on less.

 

[catcherintherye]

Under 35 points would be 90% certain relegation. It’s highly unlikely we’d survive on less.

I'm not wholly convinced mate. There look to be 6/7 teams on course for very close to that number. I think 35, with what likely be a better goal difference could be that magic number (it has been of late).

Since Pep came, and started getting 90+ points, with either Liverpool or Arsenal joining them, theres just not enough points to go around. Especially with 6 top teams + Newcastle.

If I'm honest, it's the only thing that makes me think we have any chance. I cant see us getting much more than mid-high 30s on a good run. I hope I'm proving wrong like. But honestly, if someone offered me 36 now, I'm signing off on that.

 

[Goat]

Under 35 points would be 90% certain relegation. It’s highly unlikely we’d survive on less.

How many points does it normally take to stay in the Premier League?​

But how many points will the sides above need to aim for to ensure they are not relegated this term?

The general assumption is that 40 points is the magic number to aim for in order to ensure your survival.

However, throughout much of the Premier League’s existence, the 40 point mark was often not needed to secure saftey.


When were 40 points or more needed to stay in the Premier League?

Since the Premier League became a 20-team league from 1995/96, 40 points or more has only been needed on four occasions.

In 1996/97 and 1997/98, the 18th-place teams finished on 40 points, meaning 41 was needed to guarantee safety.

In 2002/03, 18th-place would finish on 42, meaning 43 points were actually needed - this is the most any side has had to earn to ensure they staved off relegation in the history of the Premier League.

Then, in 2010/11, 18th place would garner 39 points, meaning the magic 40 mark was actually needed then.

What are the average points needed to stay in the Premier League?​

Outside of the above, 34 points were needed on four occasions, 35 on four occasions, 36 once, 37 five times, 38 once, 39 twice and 31 once back in 2009/10.

This works out at an average of 35.7, so essentially 36, points needed to stay in the Premier League each campaign.

 

[Simon Buttle]

Under 35 points would be 90% certain relegation. It’s highly unlikely we’d survive on less.

Any team from Palace in 12th down could get pulled into it if not careful, a lot of the teams in this league are very over rated and I'm not worried by the business done by teams around us either. Plenty to play for yet.

 

[catcherintherye]

How many points does it normally take to stay in the Premier League?​

But how many points will the sides above need to aim for to ensure they are not relegated this term?

The general assumption is that 40 points is the magic number to aim for in order to ensure your survival.

However, throughout much of the Premier League’s existence, the 40 point mark was often not needed to secure saftey.


When were 40 points or more needed to stay in the Premier League?

Since the Premier League became a 20-team league from 1995/96, 40 points or more has only been needed on four occasions.

In 1996/97 and 1997/98, the 18th-place teams finished on 40 points, meaning 41 was needed to guarantee safety.

In 2002/03, 18th-place would finish on 42, meaning 43 points were actually needed - this is the most any side has had to earn to ensure they staved off relegation in the history of the Premier League.

Then, in 2010/11, 18th place would garner 39 points, meaning the magic 40 mark was actually needed then.

What are the average points needed to stay in the Premier League?​

Outside of the above, 34 points were needed on four occasions, 35 on four occasions, 36 once, 37 five times, 38 once, 39 twice and 31 once back in 2009/10.

This works out at an average of 35.7, so essentially 36, points needed to stay in the Premier League each campaign.

But crucially this is trending down. The league is becoming more unequal.

As I think I've noted, with a superior goal difference, which we have and are likely to with Dyche, it has been 7 years since a side in 18th got more than 35.

We have also seen in recent years 1-3 teams collapse. I sense a couple will, and worry we will be one. But theres always an outside chance 3 teams collapse.

 

[catcherintherye]

Any team from Palace in 12th down could get pulled into it if not careful, a lot of the teams in this league are very over rated and I'm not worried by the business done by teams around us either. Plenty to play for yet.

The way I see it, we were about 5 points adrift, with about 8 games to go, with an awful run in last season, and we stayed up by 4 points.

Our situation is not that bad. The worry is we are woeful, and cant turn it around. Had we kept Lampard, we would have gone down on 25 points.

 

[Moomin]

We deserve to be relegated.

I embrace it.

 

[Goat]

But crucially this is trending down. The league is becoming more unequal.

As I think I've noted, with a superior goal difference, which we have and are likely to with Dyche, it has been 7 years since a side in 18th got more than 35.

We have also seen in recent years 1-3 teams collapse. I sense a couple will, and worry we will be one. But theres always an outside chance 3 teams collapse.

Our main issue is the next 2 games.

They could go very, very badly.

I know Big Red are pony, but you know, a truly terrible 2 games for a new manager.

 

[Runub]

Any team from Palace in 12th down could get pulled into it if not careful, a lot of the teams in this league are very over rated and I'm not worried by the business done by teams around us either. Plenty to play for yet.

Agree. Just because players are signed doesn’t mean they will produce. I remember QPR buying hordes of players a while back but they still got relegated

 

[catcherintherye]

Our main issue is the next 2 games.

They could go very, very badly.

I know Big Red are pony, but you know, a truly terrible 2 games for a new manager.

I think we have to be competitive in both. Everyone knows it's an easier run after that. But if we get whacked, the players confidence goes. If we are competitive, confidence will grow.

With Lampard, any momentum we could have had just got shot down with feeble displays.

I'm sure Dyche will be aiming for 2 clean sheets.

But you are right, a heavy defeat will be hard for him. Call me mad, but I think he may set us up to do a little better than people think.

 

[Eggsyblueskin]

It seems to me that most of the optimistic calculations ( not all ) seem to relay on enough of the other teams losing while we gather draws and a handful wins, (hopefully)
This almost certainly won’t be the case.
In fact after the next two games which
I can’t see us getting anything out of , that 2 or 3 point deficit between us and relative safety could conceivably have increased to 8 or 9 points.
We are currently not only one of the two worst teams in the PL but one of overall worst team in the league structure.
In truth my morale is gone to be honest.
I am looking to the slow process of building a team out of the disparate parts we currently have so that we have a decent chance of getting out of the Championship by promotion rather than demotion.
Sorry for the pessimistic outlook.

 

[Alan0401]

Our main issue is the next 2 games.

They could go very, very badly.

I know Big Red are pony, but you know, a truly terrible 2 games for a new manager.

I have a worse feeling about that game than any other game to be honest, it just has all the parts in place for it to be one of those 4-0 at half time games.

 

[Goat]

I think we have to be competitive in both. Everyone knows it's an easier run after that. But if we get whacked, the players confidence goes. If we are competitive, confidence will grow.

With Lampard, any momentum we could have had just got shot down with feeble displays.

I'm sure Dyche will be aiming for 2 clean sheets.

But you are right, a heavy defeat will be hard for him. Call me mad, but I think he may set us up to do a little better than people think.

I always think Everton can get a result, no matter who we play.