Wat Tyler
Player Valuation: £70m
Agree with you but you have missed outIf 35 points is the benchmark for safety, I think we have a hell of a job on our hands.
All three of Watford, Norwich and Burnley look to have so much more fight in them than us, and that's what it may come down to.
To a man, we are stronger than many clubs outside the top 8, but if you have no heart and desire you'll ultimately lose a lot of winnable games, as we've shown in recent seasons.
35 points means we need 16 more. Our, on paper, easiest home fixtures are Leeds, Wolves, Palace, Brentford, while we only have Southampton and Watford away where it looks like we could take any points at all.
To have a majority of these games as must-win has me sick to my stomach.
There will be many 'six-pointers' in there, and I do not trust our squad to dig in and get the points in many of these games.
I can see a maximum of three more victories this season, and maybe 4-5 points from the away games if we're lucky. 14 points, finish on 33.
Our final 8 away games Southampton, Spurs, Watford, West Ham, Liverpool, Leicester, Arsenal.
Home games Leeds, City, Wolves, United, Palace, Chelsea, Brentford.
If we do finish on 33, we're hoping Norwich cannot get 17 points from 16 games, or Watford 18 points from 16 games.
Just happy that, from those below us, we only face Watford.
Burnley looked fine against United last night and their signing of Weghorst to replace Wood looks a great decision. If they win their game in hand over us, they're 2 behind us with a better goal difference.
All in all, I think we're nailed on to go down.
Home Newcastle, Leicester
Away Burnley