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Relegation

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LouReedwalkonthewildside said:
@davek please don't say we won't be relegated because what you normally say the opposite happens! :oops:
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I would never say that at all - not a claim we WILL get out of it.

I've been making the case that this is 'get-outable' given what we have in front of us in terms of home fixtures and the way we're playing at home under FL + the gap we have between us and Burnley especially + playing a conservative style and getting players behind the ball.

We are right in this relegation scrap and at no time have I claimed we aren't. In fact, I'll have to reassess the points total I think likey to get us safe. I had believed that maybe 31/32 points will do it for us. The way these referee decisions are going against us and for our rivals at the bottom, however, I'd have to say now we need 34/35 to be reasonably certain we wont take the drop.

Burnley and their very doable run-in unnerves me.
 
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The issue is that those Leeds and Brentford recent results have meant that there’s no other teams down there with us. We’re relying on us getting a decent points total but also none of the teams below putting on a good run.

If a nightmare scenario happens though and Burnley suddenly put a run together, we’re down if we haven’t put that run together.

Before last nights result Leeds were in the mire as well but that’s absolutely gifted them a huge step to safety. When you look at our games in hand it’s unlikely we’ll be ahead of Leeds or Brentford after our next three.
 
Saint Domingo said:
The issue is that those Leeds and Brentford recent results have meant that there’s no other teams down there with us. We’re relying on us getting a decent points total but also none of the teams below putting on a good run.

If a nightmare scenario happens though and Burnley suddenly put a run together, we’re down if we haven’t put that run together.

Before last nights result Leeds were in the mire as well but that’s absolutely gifted them a huge step to safety. When you look at our games in hand it’s unlikely we’ll be ahead of Leeds or Brentford after our next three.
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The problem with this logic though is it suggests that Burnley overtaking not only us but also Leeds was feasible until last night’s result. That just doesn’t ring true.

With a Leeds draw they’d have been six points ahead of Burnley. The odds of Burnley catching them were extremely slim anyway.

If we finish ahead of Burnley we will be safe, that was the case before last night and it’s the same now. Watford are toast.
 
Saint Domingo said:
The issue is that those Leeds and Brentford recent results have meant that there’s no other teams down there with us. We’re relying on us getting a decent points total but also none of the teams below putting on a good run.

If a nightmare scenario happens though and Burnley suddenly put a run together, we’re down if we haven’t put that run together.

Before last nights result Leeds were in the mire as well but that’s absolutely gifted them a huge step to safety. When you look at our games in hand it’s unlikely we’ll be ahead of Leeds or Brentford after our next three.
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Leeds will get safe. They are getting the famed new manager bounce.

You're bang on about the margin for error for us now. Burnley are really the only one below I see getting out of this and above Everton - their run in is very decent and full of points for them.

Brentford are the team I think we can target still above us. Their remaining fixtures are perhaps even tougher than ours.

Overall, what unnerves me most of all is that it's that time of season when strange results happen because of fixture congestions and other various cup priorities (domestic and Euro) and clubs with nothing to play for who are already safe. That makes this volatile and just about anything can happen.
 

davek said:
I would never say that at all - not a claim we WILL get out of it.

I've been making the case that this is 'get-outable' given what we have in front of us in terms of home fixtures and the way we're playing at home under FL + the gap we have between us and Burnley especially + playing a conservative style and getting players behind the ball.

We are right in this relegation scrap and at not time have I claimed we aren't. In fact, I'll have to reassess the points total I think likey to get us safe. I had believed that maybe 31/32 points will do it for us. The way these referee decisions are going against us and for our rivals at the bottom, however, I'd have to say now we need 34/35 to be reasonably certain we wont take the drop.

Burnley and their very doable run-in unnerves me.
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6 points from our last six, if we can average that or improve it - even a couple of losses into draws, we're looking good.

Burnley at Watford are six pointers mind.

Burnley worry me to, they have experience of this, capable of a run, will be pragmatic, hard to beat and will surely nick a few and have the fixtures.

We could do with Brentford getting smashed today.
 
Interesting people saying Leeds are out of it with two jammy results. If we draw with west ham and beat Burnley we are level on points with a game in hand still but by no means out of it.
 
Brentford are 8 points clear of Watford and 9 from Burnley. They’re not getting caught by either of those teams.

All we need to do is finish above Burnley as there is almost no chance they’re overturning a 9 point deficit on Brentford. Likely ten points with goal difference.

It just won’t happen. They’ve won three games in 27. Even if Brentford scrape a couple of draws and don’t win for the rest of the season, that’s 13 points Burnley would need to overtake them. You would get incredible odds on that happening.
 

EFC_FRANCIS said:
Interesting people saying Leeds are out of it with two jammy results. If we draw with west ham and beat Burnley we are level on points with a game in hand still but by no means out of it.
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Leeds i think will beat saints the day before we play West Ham, then its watford v Leeds the day we play man utd, and Norwich v Burnley the day later
 
EFC_FRANCIS said:
Interesting people saying Leeds are out of it with two jammy results. If we draw with west ham and beat Burnley we are level on points with a game in hand still but by no means out of it.
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They could get sucked back into it if we pick up points in the next couple of games and they don’t. Even if we don’t catch the teams in front of us, as long as we pick up a few wins we could easily finish 17th and reasonably clear of the bottom 3. Beating Burnley and Watford would be huge results.

We looked a much more dangerous team with DCL up front and Richy on the left on Thursday. Just hope they can stay fit then I can see us picking up a few wins.
 
Neiler said:
6 points from our last six, if we can average that or improve it - even a couple of losses into draws, we're looking good.

Burnley at Watford are six pointers mind.

Burnley worry me to, they have experience of this, capable of a run, will be pragmatic, hard to beat and will surely nick a few and have the fixtures.

We could do with Brentford getting smashed today.
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I'm actually more hopeful of finishing above them than Burnley given what you say and their run-in.

Tomorrow they play. Let's hope Leicester are up for it.
 

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