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Relegation

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Brentford are 8 points clear of Watford and 9 from Burnley. They’re not getting caught by either of those teams.

All we need to do is finish above Burnley as there is almost no chance they’re overturning a 9 point deficit on Brentford. Likely ten points with goal difference.

It just won’t happen. They’ve won three games in 27. Even if Brentford scrape a couple of draws and don’t win for the rest of the season, that’s 13 points Burnley would need to overtake them. You would get incredible odds on that happening.

If they only scrape a couple of draws, Burnley would need 11 points from 11 games to overtake them (As obviously the goal difference would turn around in that scenario)
That’s not incredible odds by any stretch.
 
The scenario I didn’t want to happen, is happening unfortunately.

Leeds and Brentford have had a couple of wins, pushing them further away. I get that we only have to finish above 3, but just means we’re not allowed any significant slip ups, as if one of those bottom 3 go on a run now, we’ve less teams to overtake.

Still, Thursday was massive, and hopefully can be a springboard to a few more results which can get us well and truly clear.
 
Thinking about it I can understand the maybe overboard and gloom ridden thoughts of a lot of fans, very much glass half empty.

Over the last few years we've had nothing but doom and gloom in real life, Brexit,Covid and now Ukraine, with the media gleefully telling us what awful things lie in wait.

It rubs off, it must do. It seems good news and hopes are banned.

I cannot remember the Wimbledon season being so doom ridden with 11 games left even though we knew we were in for a rocky ride.
Maybe because forums were in their early days and news channels did cover things in a more sensible way.

Everton will be safe this season, no nail baiting last day for us, we won't be involved in it no matter how much fear is spread around. COYB.
 
Mad the way we weren’t in a relegation scrap before the kopite got binned, but now we are.

Our run is horrendous, Watford and Burnley are more than capable of beating us, and that’s were the issue is.

I hope Frank repeats Thursday’s style of being more tight at the back. He seems to have accepted that this is the way now. But are the players capable

Personally, I still think we’ll go.
 
The scenario I didn’t want to happen, is happening unfortunately.

Leeds and Brentford have had a couple of wins, pushing them further away. I get that we only have to finish above 3, but just means we’re not allowed any significant slip ups, as if one of those bottom 3 go on a run now, we’ve less teams to overtake.

Still, Thursday was massive, and hopefully can be a springboard to a few more results which can get us well and truly clear.
Yep, ive said it for 3months if we were by the bottom 3 we are in trouble with run in we had from April, some people after that win v The toon which overall was not a great performance but a vital win have crazily said we are safe after that win which is totally mental, and you have said what ive said that we cant really slip up which with all the tough games we have there is a very good chance of it, as it puts pressure on games people are saying we should win, we need to pull off a shock result v a team no one expects or learn to not get beat away - both would do off course
 

Yep, ive said it for 3months if we were by the bottom 3 we are in trouble with run in we had from April, some people after that win v The toon which overall was not a great performance but a vital win have crazily said we are safe after that win which is totally mental, and you have said what ive said that we cant really slip up which with all the tough games we have there is a very good chance of it

We’re anything but safe unfortunately.

I think if anything seeing Brentford and Leeds getting back-to-back wins, should highlight the importance in what we need to do.

If Watford or Burnley go and do the same, we have that run in, and that does concern me.

I guess we have to ride our luck, use the International Break as a time to really work on tactics, get people fit and be ready for West Ham, every game needs to be treated as a cup final.
 
Mad the way we weren’t in a relegation scrap before the kopite got binned, but now we are.

Our run is horrendous, Watford and Burnley are more than capable of beating us, and that’s were the issue is.

I hope Frank repeats Thursday’s style of being more tight at the back. He seems to have accepted that this is the way now. But are the players capable

Personally, I still think we’ll go.

I fear for the people who become far too optimistic after a scrappy 1-0 win. We’ve barely beat anyone this season and we require wins to stay up.
 
Bookies seem fairly confident that the current bottom three will be getting relegated! Everton now 3-1 against with some.
Burnley need wins and they have only won three all season!
 

I fear for the people who become far too optimistic after a scrappy 1-0 win. We’ve barely beat anyone this season and we require wins to stay up.
We have to deliver safety by ourselves and not rely other teams results and make sure we do not lose against Burnley and Watford.
However, it helps if Leeds,Brentford and Newcastle are looking over their shoulder for as long as possible given their games still to be played against the current bottom 3.

If we replicated our current ppg over the last 11 games we would end up at 35 which feels like it could be enough but I want us to be safe well before the last game against Arsenal so the April games are massive.
 
If they only scrape a couple of draws, Burnley would need 11 points from 11 games to overtake them (As obviously the goal difference would turn around in that scenario)
That’s not incredible odds by any stretch.

Burnley have an inferior goal difference already having played less games and are about to play City without two of their better defenders. Prior form suggests they aren’t going to finish with a better GD than Brentford are. Even when Burnley win games they don’t win by 2 or 3.

You think it’s not incredible odds that a team who’ve won three games all season will get 12 more points than Brentford ? Agree to disagree.

Brentford have won 8 in 29 but we’re talking about a scenario where they win zero in 9. Come on.
 
If we win three games in quick succession that'll get us out of this. Been saying that since October though and that hasn't happened so I'm not expecting it to happen now. If we lose to Watford and Burnley we'll likely go down. Looking at how the season has gone so far we're more likely to lose away to a bottom three team than go on a winning run unfortunately.
 
Yep, ive said it for 3months if we were by the bottom 3 we are in trouble with run in we had from April, some people after that win v The toon which overall was not a great performance but a vital win have crazily said we are safe after that win which is totally mental, and you have said what ive said that we cant really slip up which with all the tough games we have there is a very good chance of it, as it puts pressure on games people are saying we should win, we need to pull off a shock result v a team no one expects or learn to not get beat away - both would do off course

Leaves us very vulnerable to a freak result. Say City get a player sent off and lose to Burnley. People talk about that Burnley game like it is must not lose. For me it is must win as after that game we head into a difficult run. I think we need 12 points to be certain. I can see us only getting 8 or 9. I think it goes into the last game where Burnley are at home to Newcastle and we are away at Arsenal
 

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