Really? okay.. try this one..
Yes, the crime stat is a stat, because in say 2010 there were 20,000 crimes in an area in 2016 there were 40,000 crimes in an area... the crimes have increase, this would be a stat or fact...
How many crimes there would of been if that area had chosen a different candidate to promote to Chief Superintendent however is guesswork..
If you use the figures (stats) to make an assumption, you have made a guess based on facts..
If you just use the stats to show maybe an increase or decline in something, or something else that is provable, then you can create a fact..
Example: Car hits a tree
A car was doing 30 mph (stat)
Hits the tree doing 60mph.. (stat)
The car has sped up (fact)
Why did it speed up? (Question)
Probably the car was being chased by the Chief Superintendent mentioned above (guess)
Evidence arrives and the car was actually being followed by the Superintendent, confirmed by the Superintendent with in car camera footage.. The superintendent was following the car when it sped up, this is now fact.
Therefore the car sped up and hit the tree because the driver was being chased by the police... is a ... actually it is still not a fact or stat.. its still an assumption or guess..
That he is being followed by the police is still not evidence of why he sped up, he may be rushing to the hospital because his wife is giving birth, the police following him being little more than an extra annoyance...
The police may actually be escorting the car because it was a diplomatic envoy who was delayed by traffic and needed to catch a plane urgently.
He may even of just joined a dual carriageway obeying the speed limits, the police car was just following behind it also obeying the speed limit without any interest in the car in front.
Without knowing more, you can have stats, facts and assumptions which can easily be misconstrued. Note the assumptions above state the car was chased, whereas the facts say followed.
Stats or facts are simply ot disputable, they are fact, they are events that happened and are tangibly defined.
Using your dictionary example, it talks about the stats, but extrapolation of those stats to show what the crime rates will be like next year are guesses, or what the crime rate would be under different variables (extra police, certain initiatives) are guesses, or how fast the car would of accelerated to before it hit the tree it hit, or how your team would do without its star striker is a guess.. All guesses based on stats and facts, but clearly not stats or facts.
Unless you know the variables around a stat, your conclusions will not be a fact, just a guess.
What you offered up was a complete guess, not even an educated or informed guess, just a number plucked out of the air as to how we would of done without Lukaku.
I'm gonna stop talking about this now (hopefully before I get thread banned).. fact... maybe
Sorry mods