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2023/24 Sean Dyche

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xG is one aspect of a suite of analytical indicators.
Each seperate set of data influences the other.
Isolating or emphasising one element whilst ignoring the others is using the tool poorly.
Like any tool its efficacy relies on the skill and understanding of user .
Used correctly it can aid a deeper understanding of each game and allow corrections to be made if required.
But it is a statistical tool and therefore it deals in absolutes there are no nuances in its evaluation, this relies on the skill and input of the user.
It still requires the observer to understand what he is viewing in real time.
xG is an indicator of events and actions .
But without the application of those observed nuances which evade the ability of a computer program which deals in absolutes , it is worthless.
If you are using xG to reinforce failure or bad practice you are using it incorrectly.
It is a computer program not a set of excuses.
 
PhilM said:
Spot on. I remember a few years ago debating/arguing this with an infamous poster on here: stats are all well and good, but they can be hugely overstated.

When we beat Brighton 5-1, they had a better XG than us! To be fair, we are making chances in games, but with my own eyes I don't see them being confident ones.
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To me it’s fairly simple. We just don’t have the quality in the final third. Defence is ok but undone by our inability to score. Its not a form issue I don’t think, its a lack of good players in the team in those positions.

Put Richarlison, Gordon and one other decent forward in the lineup and we’d be absolutely fine. But, we can’t afford players of that quality now and won’t be able to for the foreseeable.
 
jamieni said:
To me it’s fairly simple. We just don’t have the quality in the final third. Defence is ok but undone by our inability to score. Its not a form issue I don’t think, its a lack of good players in the team in those positions.

Put Richarlison, Gordon and one other decent forward in the lineup and we’d be absolutely fine. But, we can’t afford players of that quality now and won’t be able to for the foreseeable.
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Yet DCL has scored more in a season than either one of them has.
 

jamieni said:
To me it’s fairly simple. We just don’t have the quality in the final third. Defence is ok but undone by our inability to score. Its not a form issue I don’t think, its a lack of good players in the team in those positions.

Put Richarlison, Gordon and one other decent forward in the lineup and we’d be absolutely fine. But, we can’t afford players of that quality now and won’t be able to for the foreseeable.
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Of course quality will help, and I'm not going to pretend we have a midfield and forward line full of quality. If we brought in better players, we'd improve.

However, I do think that hides how ineffective our current lot are even with their ability; in short, we aren't playing anywhere to their collective capability.

Your argument, while to an extent a just one, hides our tactical flaws, and that's on Dyche and his coaching staff because it's their job to coach and adapt.

You only have to look at other teams, who have got equal or less quality than our own squad, but they are scoring more goals. Why? They set up in a way to do so.

They have a manager who is coaching and inspiring his players to play better football, whereas we have a rigid system that promotes slow, predictable play.

@allen talked yesterday about Dyche thinking the game is simple and ignoring permutations, which is partly true, but to some extent football is a simple game.

If you do not do the simple things well, you'll not win many games. I play football each week, and a few weeks ago we had a game against an inferior team on paper.

They battered us though because, like Everton, we were slow and predictable: they passed quicker and better; they moved more efficiently and played as a team.

That's what we are lacking, and what the coaching staff need to fix sooner rather than later.
 
PhilM said:
Of course quality will help, and I'm not going to pretend we have a midfield and forward line full of quality. If we brought in better players, we'd improve.

However, I do think that hides how ineffective our current lot are even with their ability; in short, we aren't playing anywhere to their collective capability.

Your argument, while to an extent a just one, hides our tactical flaws, and that's on Dyche and his coaching staff because it's their job to coach and adapt.

You only have to look at other teams, who have got equal or less quality than our own squad, but they are scoring more goals. Why? They set up in a way to do so.

They have a manager who is coaching and inspiring his players to play better football, whereas we have a rigid system that promotes slow, predictable play.

@allen talked yesterday about Dyche thinking the game is simple and ignoring permutations, which is partly true, but to some extent football is a simple game.

If you do not do the simple things well, you'll not win many games. I play football each week, and a few weeks ago we had a game against an inferior team on paper.

They battered us though because, like Everton, we were slow and predictable: they passed quicker and better; they moved more efficiently and played as a team.

That's what we are lacking, and what the coaching staff need to fix sooner rather than later.
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Fair point, and I’m not trying to defend Dyche. It’s certainly on him to try to find a way of playing that gets us results and he’s not doing it currently. I find his selections and substitutions incredibly frustrating.

But we can’t shy away from the fact that we’ve lost most of the attacking quality we had in the squad and replaced them with inferior players. If not for the points deduction we’d be reasonably safe but I doubt anyone would be happy with the football we are serving up.
 
jamieni said:
And 3 goals this season compared to 9 and 10 respectively from the other two.

Edit: not having a go at DCL in particular. Theres nobody around him supporting him or providing any quality into the box consistently. Docoure had a purple patch but his all round play is meh.
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Neither have returned a season total like DCL though, Richarlison has never scored more than 13 in a season. Our issues are largely tactical with a bit of self confidence thrown on top. Even just a few small tweaks to the game plan would make a massive difference to the overall outcome. For example whilst our team xG is fairly decent DCL's individual xG is actually not that great because it's half chances he is getting not clear cut.
 

jamieni said:
Fair point, and I’m not trying to defend Dyche. It’s certainly on him to try to find a way of playing that gets us results and he’s not doing it currently. I find his selections and substitutions incredibly frustrating.

But we can’t shy away from the fact that we’ve lost most of the attacking quality we had in the squad and replaced them with inferior players. If not for the points deduction we’d be reasonably safe but I doubt anyone would be happy with the football we are serving up.
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You're right here. Even if Richarlison alone, we'd have enough goals in this team by sheer grit, determination and talent to be comfortably safe.

Gordon, I suspect, would have not developed under Dyche like he has at the horse punchers, which is a testament to his inability to get the best of the bunch.
 
blueconverse said:
I completely forgot his use of Maupay. Honestly how stupid do you have to be to look at Maupay and think...yeh hoof ball will work with him.
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I think this experiment has been proven, play football and strikers will score.

The way we play we never look like scoring, with balls getting banged in from 40 yards to the strikers head hoping he will do something with it
 
Market trader said:
I wondered why Dyche wasn't sacked without compensation after the slapping incident in Portugal.
An opportunity missed?
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Simply because there is nobody to do it. In theory the DoF should be his boss but we don't seem to give DoF's full responsibility for everything which has certainly been part of our issue in recent years in regards to a number of issues. He should have been and would have been hauled upstairs under normal circumstances just because of the run we are on at the moment. It's just a rudderless ship at the present time.
 
Heard he's been offered a position on the Board of Directors as well as a new four-year contract, as Kevin Thelwell has been incredibly impressed with how he's steadied the ship this season. Not an April Fools lads honest.
 

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