2023/24 Sean Dyche

[Gilbert..]

Based on their underlying numbers, Dyche’s men should in theory be somewhere around Aston Villa and Brighton in fifth and sixth respectively, rather than close to the foot of the table again. Not only are they creating chances and sustaining pressure in the opposition half (see field tilt below), but they’ve largely been successful at limiting attempts on their own goal too.

That they are not emulating Villa and Brighton has more to do with their inability to take those chances and maybe a bit of bad luck.

We had 1 shot on target against Arsenal. And 2 shots against villa away in the league.
The XG stuff is against the likes of luton sheff utd bournemouth and fulham.
The two tough games we had we lost both and the XG was non existent. Funny how thats not mentioned.

Nobody outside of Everton probably gives a sh!t but all Evertonians know we've had a gift set of fixtures to bank points and its not gone well. To be told our XG has been brilliant against 5 of the bottom 7 might appease some but given we created virtually nothing in the two games against those not in the bottom 7 tells me something different.

The tests are on the way now. I hope we dont collapse.

 

[Tigger]

Sick of hearing about this xg wham.

 

[Ruairi77]

Sick of hearing about this xg wham.

me too. We created loads of chances against poorer teams and hardly any against better teams.
That just shows we don't have good enough strikers.
Our midfield also went missing for a while (he got it right against Bournemouth by accident)
And our defense needs shoring up.

So I wouldnt read in to XG at all.
He's a better manager than Lampard but he's a bigger bell end. I suppose I'll take that for now.
At least he has an almost full squad for the bigger games but it'll be hard to watch if he just sets up to react to how other teams set up.

 

[Neiler]

me too. We created loads of chances against poorer teams and hardly any against better teams.
That just shows we don't have good enough strikers.
Our midfield also went missing for a while (he got it right against Bournemouth by accident)
And our defense needs shoring up.

So I wouldnt read in to XG at all.
He's a better manager than Lampard but he's a bigger bell end. I suppose I'll take that for now.
At least he has an almost full squad for the bigger games but it'll be hard to watch if he just sets up to react to how other teams set up.

What if we're a poor team though...............

 

[MikeH72]

If someone offered me 14th place in the league table before the season started I’d have took it. If they offered me 14th place in the xG table I’d just laugh and ask them where we finish in the league table.

 

[Gilbert..]

me too. We created loads of chances against poorer teams and hardly any against better teams.
That just shows we don't have good enough strikers.
Our midfield also went missing for a while (he got it right against Bournemouth by accident)
And our defense needs shoring up.

So I wouldnt read in to XG at all.
He's a better manager than Lampard but he's a bigger bell end. I suppose I'll take that for now.
At least he has an almost full squad for the bigger games but it'll be hard to watch if he just sets up to react to how other teams set up.

The interesting thing about all the XG stuff is we're told its because we didnt have good strikers and thats why we're not winning. But we didnt create in the games against better opposition. The XG against Arsenal was 0.34. Against villa it was 0.63.
Ive got no problem that we aren't a great side. Its nothing i didnt already know. But sick of the propaganda crap. All that matters is we had 0 points from 12 at home. Nobody is giving us points from good XG against the likes of luton.

 

[Neiler]

The interesting thing about all the XG stuff is we're told its because we didnt have good strikers and thats why we're not winning. But we didnt create in the games against better opposition. The XG against Arsenal was 0.34. Against villa it was 0.63.
Ive got no problem that we aren't a great side. Its nothing i didnt already know. But sick of the propaganda crap. All that matters is we had 0 points from 12 at home. Nobody is giving us points from good XG against the likes of luton.

Ah come on mate, do you expect us to post an XG of 14 against Arsneal, they are 10 times better then us. Villa prob double and didn't we loose our striker in that game.

What was Brentford.

 

[Ruairi77]

What if we're a poor team though...............

I mean, we're not the best, but I'm not sure I need xG to tell me that this team should finish about 12 or 13 easily.

 

[toffeeblue9]

We’ve also had the easiest fixtures in the entire league so far which probably contributes heavily to teams not getting many shots off against us. I’ll be interested to see where our xG, xGA, XXXmilfs=mc2 lands after we’ve played some good teams.

That's perfectly fair, but I'd sort of counter that with setting expectation levels a bit

If we barely get out of our own half at Anfield and lose and follow that up with a defeat at West Ham, it wouldn't/shouldn't be a complete surprise given where we are coming from

However you're right to assert that if anyone advocating Dyche (or at least not banging the drum to get rid of him) is pointing to underlying performance stats as a positive, it would be fair to point this out if it turns negative (the Villa performance, for example, was as bad as anything Lampard or Benitez served up and that sort of thing needs to be called it out when it happens because it isn't acceptable for any team at this level)

 

[Neiler]

I mean, we're not the best, but I'm not sure I need xG to tell me that this team should finish about 12 or 13 easily.

Ageeed mate.

Its how literal you want to apply it really, i had arguments on here with a few about four years ago when people were saying it was gospel - it isn't, there isn't one stat to rule them all, but XG is indicative but as we know not reality. It is interesting when you apply the law of probability though and i mentioned this yesterday. I said a few weeks back that we were bound to score a few as its impossible to have such a high XG and not score and so it was Brentford happened. So there is a bit of science to it to if you apply probability.

Were Wolves and Fulham the mean or were Bourmouth and Brentford. Does the law of probability mean eventually XG will fall your way and you have a Brentford and Bourmouth.

XG - it the basis of a philosophical discussion really. Ive seen lads trying to apply it and model it to loads of things in football.

Wonder what our XG was last season.......

 

[Gilbert..]

Ah come on mate, do you expect us to post an XG of 14 against Arsneal, they are 10 times better then us. Villa prob double and didn't we loose our striker in that game.

What was Brentford.

Brentford are the 5 of the bottom 7 as mentioned. That was the point. Id expect to have decent chances against those around us. All the XG stuff is spouted against the dross down there with us. That we've picked up 7 points from 24 from.
Tart it up as much as you like. Points ratio given the fixtures has been poor.

 

[Neiler]

Brentford are the 5 of the bottom 7 as mentioned. That was the point. Id expect to have decent chances against those around us. All the XG stuff is spouted against the dross down there with us. That we've picked up 7 points from 24 from.
Tart it up as much as you like. Points ratio given the fixtures has been poor.

Yeah because we stuffed them by 3 away, its chicken and egg isn't it mate.

In all honesty, i think the games we just had are the ones we generally struggle with, teams sitting back and absorbing - im actually surprised the XG is so high i wouldn't have predicted it.

Yeah and 3 wins from the last four - with players available.

 

[Ruairi77]

Ageeed mate.

Its how literal you want to apply it really, i had arguments on here with a few about four years ago when people were saying it was gospel - it isn't, there isn't one stat to rule them all, but XG is indicative but as we know not reality. It is interesting when you apply the law of probability though and i mentioned this yesterday. I said a few weeks back that we were bound to score a few as its impossible to have such a high XG and not score and so it was Brentford happened. So there is a bit of science to it to if you apply probability.

Were Wolves and Fulham the mean or were Broadmouth and Brentford. Does the law of probability mean eventually XG will fall your way and you have a Brentford and Barmouth.

XG - it the basis of a philosophical discussion really. Ive seen lads trying to apply it and model it to loads of things in football.

Wonder what our XG was last season.......

one of the few things I like about football is that xG doesnt really matter.
Look at the rugby world cup. The best teams throttle the worst teams, there's no room for an upset. Stats manifest themselves in games.
It's easy to see how it all transpires.
But not in football. Wolves can still beat City. Or Everton can pepper wolves goal and they can beat us.

 

[toffeeblue9]

Yeah fair enough.

Counterpoint:
View attachment 230985

Football is a results business, not an xG business.

That's fine, but fine margins and luck can mean the difference between results and these aren't things a manager can influence a huge amount.

Put another way, if we had 7 points on the board but our performances and stats were the same as they were at this point last season I think a conversation about the manager would be perfectly reasonable. If anything last season we were lucky to get the points on the board that we did. This time around we appear to be in the opposite situation, but the silver lining is that I'd rather be in this situation than the one we were in at this point a year ago. Last year there was no reason to expect that things might improve, this time there is actually some indications of moving forward.

Granted, no matter how much people point to stats, you'll always get the counter argument that results are the only thing that matters. That's true in the longer term, but focusing on short term results which can be affected by tiny margins is something a lot of the better run clubs are moving away from. Brighton have sacked managers in the past because despite results being acceptable, the performance data suggested they were being fortunate.

 

[Neiler]

one of the few things I like about football is that xG doesnt really matter.
Look at the rugby world cup. The best teams throttle the worst teams, there's no room for an upset. Stats manifest themselves in games.
It's easy to see how it all transpires.
But not in football. Wolves can still beat City. Or Everton can pepper wolves goal and they can beat us.

Its very true mate, you can break it down further, you can break it down per player. Halland can have a high XG, but still at the weekend not score as such its not exact - but is indicitive and if you apply proabablity you will hit a wide mark. As you say there are other varibles and a bit of chaos to be applied also. Like what does a red card in the team do to XG etc. So like i say indcititive rather then absolute.

If you take last season our XG was 48.65, but we actually scored 34. So that evidacne that XG isnt exact. But what it also tells us is, we created a lot of chances we didnt convert and low and behold we didnt have a striker and couldnt hit a barn door - so there is some valable data you can gleam. You could make an argument even that something like Brighton away was coming.

On games played so far our XG is 17.56 - hats very high - compared to last year.

Attack of course is something we had to improve, we have, but our XG is still higher then our actual goal output.