2023/24 Sean Dyche

[toffeeblue9]

We had 1 shot on target against Arsenal. And 2 shots against villa away in the league.
The XG stuff is against the likes of luton sheff utd bournemouth and fulham.
The two tough games we had we lost both and the XG was non existent. Funny how thats not mentioned.

Nobody outside of Everton probably gives a sh!t but all Evertonians know we've had a gift set of fixtures to bank points and its not gone well. To be told our XG has been brilliant against 5 of the bottom 7 might appease some but given we created virtually nothing in the two games against those not in the bottom 7 tells me something different.

The tests are on the way now. I hope we dont collapse.

No arguments there. We've played well in fixtures we might have expected to do well in. To balance out the lack of points we've taken in some of those, there will need to be overperformance in some games we might not have expected to take points in (although Brentford, tbf, was a start there), or we'll have to hope that luck balances itself out a bit and we get results in some games where better teams outplay us

 

[Gilbert..]

Yeah because we stuffed them by 3, its chicken and egg isn't it mate.

In all honesty, i think the games we just had are the ones we generally struggle with, teams sitting back and absorbing - im actually surprised the XG is so high i wouldn't have predicted it.

Yeah and 3 wins from the last four - with players available.

Brentford have won 1 in 8.

But the point again is, and you pulled it up, you didnt expect high XG against Arsenal and Villa. The striker situation wouldnt have mattered as we were not creating against these better opposition. And if you follow that trend then its likely to be the same with upcoming fixtures as we will now be playing better opposition.
To go back to the original comment. High XG against all the sides around us has counted for virtually nothing in terms of actual points. So i wish people would shut up about it. Id bloody expect to create chances at home against these sides as minimum.

 

[toffeeblue9]

Brentford have won 1 in 8.

But the point again is, and you pulled it up, you didnt expect high XG against Arsenal and Villa. The striker situation wouldnt have mattered as we were not creating against these better opposition. And if you follow that trend then its likely to be the same with upcoming fixtures as we will now be playing better opposition.
To go back to the original comment. High XG against all the sides around us has counted for virtually nothing in terms of actual points. So i wish people would shut up about it. Id bloody expect to create chances at home against these sides as minimum.

Brentford are another one who appear to have been unlucky this season, but there's also the question mark about how much the lack of a proper striker has hurt them (ironically they made the exact same decision we did last season which was to bring in Maupay as cover for a striker they knew was going to miss games and it's working out about as well for them as it did for us).

They're underperforming their xG and the performance data has them pretty much bang in midtable

 

[Neiler]

Brentford have won 1 in 8.

But the point again is, and you pulled it up, you didnt expect high XG against Arsenal and Villa. The striker situation wouldnt have mattered as we were not creating against these better opposition. And if you follow that trend then its likely to be the same with upcoming fixtures as we will now be playing better opposition.
To go back to the original comment. High XG against all the sides around us has counted for virtually nothing in terms of actual points. So i wish people would shut up about it. Id bloody expect to create chances at home against these sides as minimum.

So what you are saying is Dyche is doing a better job then Frank. lol

Honestly no, i dont expect a high xg against better teams - i dont think we have the comparable quality of player to be honest - im talking the very top here 5-6 clubs like Arsenal, Newcastle, City, here - not the entire league you seem to be - but as @Ruairi77 and i were saying two out of those three we got points against last season, so you also have to allow for Chaos theory and as ive been saying - a lot that XG is indicative not absolute and thats the evidence.

I expect us to be competitive, that's what im looking for - the points then come - we have a tougher run of games "on paper" to be sure - but i wouldn't be afraid of them. As i said to you in the week the expectation of results isn't linear, we will be beat by teams we expect to win against and win against teams we expect to be beaten by. Its like XG, you cant look at a fixture and say its a definite win or loss - you are consciously or unconsciously applying probability.

 

[Gilbert..]

No arguments there. We've played well in fixtures we might have expected to do well in. To balance out the lack of points we've taken in some of those, there will need to be overperformance in some games we might not have expected to take points in (although Brentford, tbf, was a start there), or we'll have to hope that luck balances itself out a bit and we get results in some games where better teams outplay us

Brentford isnt looking as good as it did at the time.They're struggling.
Ive got all things crossed now as we've pissed away at least 5/6 points this season. Im not anti dyche or anything even close. But i cant take the XG crap he spouts. The opposition is a huge factor in that. And we didnt put points on the board.

 

[Neiler]

Brentford are another one who appear to have been unlucky this season, but there's also the question mark about how much the lack of a proper striker has hurt them (ironically they made the exact same decision we did last season which was to bring in Maupay as cover for a striker they knew was going to miss games and it's working out about as well for them as it did for us).

They're underperforming their xG and the performance data has them pretty much bang in midtable

Its an excellent point mate and a very worth comparison. Interesting the impact.

 

[Gilbert..]

So what you are saying is Dyche is doing a better job then Frank. lol

Honestly no, i dont expect a high xg against better teams - i dont think we have the comparable quality of player to be honest - im talking the very top here 5-6 clubs like Arsenal, Newcastle, City, here - not the entire league you seem to be - but as @Ruairi77 and i were saying two out of those three we got points against last season, so you also have to allow for Chaos theory and as ive been saying - a lot that XG is indicative not absolute and that the evidence.

I expect us to competitive, that's what im looking for - the points then come - we have a tougher run of games to be sure - but i wouldn't be afraid of them. As i said to you in the week the expectation of results isn't linear, we will be beat by teams we expect to loose and win against teams we expect to be beaten by. Its like XG, you cant look at a fixture and say its a definite win or loss - you are consciously or unconsciously applying probability.

Nope. You quoted brentford like it was something great. I just pointed out they're struggling just as much.

 

[Lob]

XG is just one of Dyche's excuses for justifying how crap we have done under him. There is only one way to redemption and that is to win more games from here on in. 2 out of 8 considering the start we had is absolutely abysmal.

Go on a decent run, win more games and be more consistent and then i might start to think you deserve the job. At the moment absolutely not.

All on you Mr Dyche.

 

[Osamabindiesel]

XG is just one of Dyche's excuses for justifying how crap we have done under him. There is only one way to redemption and that is to win more games from here on in. 2 out of 8 considering the start we had is absolutely abysmal.

Go on a decent run, win more games and be more consistent and then i might start to think you deserve the job. At the moment absolutely not.

All on you Mr Dyche.

Yep. I think it’s a good sign, but it means nothing if we don’t get results. The biggest thing for me is he needs to take care of the crap teams. There should be the odd loss here and there, but we shouldn’t have dropped this many points. He will have a few tests against some big sides coming up, so let’s see if he can make up some of the differential.

 

[KindofBlue]

XG means nothing. If anything it highlights our lack of clinical skills and composure in the final third.

Look at the table, it never lies.

XG my bottom.

 

[chippy1722]

XG is just one of Dyche's excuses for justifying how crap we have done under him. There is only one way to redemption and that is to win more games from here on in. 2 out of 8 considering the start we had is absolutely abysmal.

Go on a decent run, win more games and be more consistent and then i might start to think you deserve the job. At the moment absolutely not.

All on you Mr Dyche.

You know when xG or other stats are being brought out you are clearly trying to make up for a lack of something.

 

[PeregrineT]

So the question is for all of you saying "bottom line we dont have the points" people...if we instead had a manager that had us on 14 points, but with less shots and more shots allowed(so worse xG of course), would you hire that guy instead?

 

[LEONARD]

This xG crap is driving me mad.

It's a bit like having decided on the winning 6 numbers on the lottery, but you can't be arsed to fill in a ticket and pay the £2.

 

[Goat]

So the question is for all of you saying "bottom line we dont have the points" people...if we instead had a manager that had us on 14 points, but with less shots and more shots allowed(so worse xG of course), would you hire that guy instead?

Are you asking if people would rather have more points or lower xG?

Am I understanding this question?

 

[SJB]

Dyche likes a sidetrack subject doesn't he. Last year it was "I know the stats around substitutions" and this year it's all about the XG.