davek
Player Valuation: £150m
Yep.
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The 2015 Popularity Contest (aka UK General Election )
- Thread starter rascal
- Start date
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roydo
in memoriam - 1965-2024
It is slightly more involved than agreeing on stuff, but basically it meant that the Government couldnt be defeated in a Vote of Confidence, and could also get their Budgets through the House.
Either of those two get defeated, and an election would be called. Which is why Davek is on the money re the SNP. Even if the CP were the largest party, if they needed the SNP to vote a Budget through, they wouldnt, so an Election would be called within a few weeks.
But the SNP would wring the max out of Ed to support a Labour budget. Maybe.
Will be great fun.
roydo
in memoriam - 1965-2024
I did not know that. It has worked well that I think. Made the whole chabang seem more stable than DC being able to call a snap election on the back of, I dont know, the Olympics or some such nonsense.
This is a bit like when you go to a restaurant and can tell a dish is rancid without needing to be a chef.
Righto
roydo
in memoriam - 1965-2024
It will be a mess, little doubt about, but I think Daveks mess is the most likely mess. Said so myself weeks ago.
Few rumblings from left wing Labour back benchers already about the manifesto.
My own viewpoint is that it is the right manifesto to go forward with. There was a need to demonstrate sound economics and account for spending and this does that. It neutralises the tory attack and has now shifted the onus on them to highlight how they are going to balance the books.
The new policy leaks over the last few weeks have watered down the wow factor but that was clearly a strategy designed to stop a tory poll surge. (Most political experts had predicted a large tory lead by now).
The main thing I would say today demonstrated is that Ed Miliband is now seen as potential PM material - the importance of this can not be underestimated.
My own viewpoint is that it is the right manifesto to go forward with. There was a need to demonstrate sound economics and account for spending and this does that. It neutralises the tory attack and has now shifted the onus on them to highlight how they are going to balance the books.
The new policy leaks over the last few weeks have watered down the wow factor but that was clearly a strategy designed to stop a tory poll surge. (Most political experts had predicted a large tory lead by now).
The main thing I would say today demonstrated is that Ed Miliband is now seen as potential PM material - the importance of this can not be underestimated.
davek
Player Valuation: £150m
No, it's not a bit like that. I'm not presenting you with a result, I'm presenting you with a view - a view that you pour scorn on, so anyone would be forgiven for believing you had a more 'reasonable' view of what will happen.
That's not the case though it appears - you have nothing to add other than that scorn.
It's complicated but fascinating, so many ways in which this could pan out. The dream scenario for Labour is they push through the 300 seat barrier and can form a coalition with the Lib Dems. 326 seats needed, in reality it's 323 so unlikely but still possible.
Clegg losing his seat could really put the wheels in motion on a Lab/Lib government. Plenty in his party want him gone and the Lib Dems ideologically are much closer to Labour than tory
Clegg losing his seat could really put the wheels in motion on a Lab/Lib government. Plenty in his party want him gone and the Lib Dems ideologically are much closer to Labour than tory
roydo
in memoriam - 1965-2024
It does. Even though it will be re written by the SNP on May 8th.
roydo
in memoriam - 1965-2024
Yep. It is ace from one angle, utterly terrifying from another! No matter what side of the debate one sits. It is not unfeasible, unlikely yes, but not out of the question having either the LP or the CP being propped up by the SNP or UKIP.
Neither seem ideal to me that!
Clint Planet
Utter Cad.
Damn right.
davek
Player Valuation: £150m
If Labour get 280 seats they can just about manage to crash over the line with the SNP seats. I dont see any possibility of LP+LDs, the numbers at the moment just wont stack up.
The LP need to hang onto the Tory's coat tails in the polls. That's why the ICM poll had everyone with raised eyebrows today: it'd have been a disaster for Labour. I can see the Tories getting their noses in front by 2/3% by May 7th. That's a fairly decent gap they have to make up right now btw, because they're pretty much (ICM outlier aside) roughly 2% down on Labour now. And even if they do swing that lead it just makes the Tories the largest party and not much more without dragging the dregs of British politics behind them into government.
The Tories need a breakout week and 4/5% lead on Labour by the final week of the campaign. I dont see how that happens, tbh.
Serious business.
daylightrobber
Player Valuation: £15m
Not sure we'll get a 2nd election, unless of course there is a successful vote of no confidence.
I think I'm right in thinking that this last government fixed it so that parliament is a fixed term of 5 years.
I think I'm right in thinking that this last government fixed it so that parliament is a fixed term of 5 years.
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