The 2015 Popularity Contest (aka UK General Election )

Groucho · April 13, 2015

Brennan said:
I thought that, alas:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/02/nick-clegg-david-cameron-coalition-again

In there, Clegg says “We managed to do so for five years through thick and thin".

Now I can see the thin, but I'm struggling to see the thick. Except that they all think we're thick.

Walken · April 13, 2015

chewee said:
Scotland really has been a game changer this election. The usual block of 40+ Labour seats up there has been wiped out, it's amazing Labour are neck and neck still in the seat projections after losing such a big block of seats (Potentially).

says a lot about the poor tory campaign, these fellas are so pandered by 'image' advisors, I doubt they even have half a clue what they are doing wrong

summerisle · April 13, 2015

Mrk said:
This is why nobody should take any notice of polls during an election campaign. They're nonsense.

I completed a You Gov election poll this morning so should be out tomorrow.

davek · April 13, 2015

daylightrobber said:
Not sure we'll get a 2nd election, unless of course there is a successful vote of no confidence.

I think I'm right in thinking that this last government fixed it so that parliament is a fixed term of 5 years.

Yeah, it sounds like a lock, but it'd be unworkable if one party representing much less than half the chamber tried to battle on with zero confidence in it facing constant votes of confidence.

The Tories need to get over the line with the LDs. That makes it work. Alternatively, Labour need an understanding with the SNP.

roydo · April 13, 2015

Groucho said:
In there, Clegg says “We managed to do so for five years through thick and thin".

Now I can see the thin, but I'm struggling to see the thick. Except that they all think we're thick.

I am assuming he means that a full 5 year term coalition stayed in place. Now you can argue the toss if that was good/bad/cheese on toast, but most thought it would not last the term.

So that is pretty good imo.

But, yes, they take us for idiots. All of them. Red, Blue, Yellow. The lot.

Brennan · April 13, 2015

Honestly though, if people think this government has been bad due to the Tories, they'd be suicidal had the Lib Dems not been part of it.

davek · April 13, 2015

chewee said:
Scotland really has been a game changer this election. The usual block of 40+ Labour seats up there has been wiped out, it's amazing Labour are neck and neck still in the seat projections after losing such a big block of seats (Potentially).

It is. And that's the price they pay for the negative campaign they ran in the independence referendum last year.

davek · April 13, 2015

Brennan said:
Honestly though, if people think this government has been bad due to the Tories, they'd be suicidal had the Lib Dems not been part of it.

*sigh*

If they hadn't been part of it, IT WOULDN'T HAVE HAPPENED.

sd_1992 · April 13, 2015

roydo said:
I did not know that. It has worked well that I think. Made the whole chabang seem more stable than DC being able to call a snap election on the back of, I dont know, the Olympics or some such nonsense.

I think it has provided a bit of stability with regards to the coalition, but in terms of the tories, they have been allowed to get all their unpopular policies out of the way early to have less of an impact on this election (imagine trying to sell bedroom tax or tuition fees last year), but on the other hand Labour have basically done nothing for the last 4 years because they have no reason to, and it has resulted in a weak opposition and could well cost them the election.

I think fixed terms work well in a coalition, but with a majority government it keeps both the government and the opposition honest.

Brennan · April 13, 2015

davek said:
*sigh*

If they hadn't been part of it, IT WOULDN'T HAVE HAPPENED.

....exactly

peteblue · April 13, 2015

Groucho said:
I'm not sure the Lib Dems will want to be seen as the Tories doormat, which is what they will become after five more years of the same.

Never underestimate a Politicians thirst for power, at any price............

roydo · April 13, 2015

davek said:
It is. And that's the price they pay for the negative campaign they ran in the independence referendum last year.

Maybe, but that was a straight vote. In a FPTP, all that is happening is that the YES vote in the referendum, circa 45%, if repeated as SNP votes, translates into dozens of seats in Westminster. Not sure there are no Labour voters anymore, just that the two systems produce different outcomes.

Now I have no idea at all how the campaign in Scotland is going, which issues are key, how good or bad the SNP, (albeit in a coalition of sorts), have done, or are perceived as doing, but perhaps things are happening domestically that may yet alter the expected results up there.

roydo · April 13, 2015

sd_1992 said:
bedroom tax

I am still at a loss why that was ever thought to be a good idea that one. In a purely political context. Poll Tax on speed imo.

Clint Planet · April 13, 2015

roydo said:
I know this a subject very close to your heart Clint.

But if you change the wording from "% of income taken" to "% of income earned", it looks a bit different.

I don't see how, tbh, mate.

Seanjd · April 13, 2015

Brennan said:
I'd say a Tory and Lib Dem coalition is far more likely at this point. Even if the Lib Dems take a battering i still see them holding the 25 or so seats they would need to get the Tories over the line in that respect.

I honestly don't think they will see the numbers, even if the Tories finish 6 or 7 points ahead of Labour. If the election outcome was true to the current polls (which it won't be, but it won't be too far off), Tories and Lib Dems would fall about 25 seats short.