The 2015 Popularity Contest (aka UK General Election )

[daylightrobber]

YouGov show 1% CON lead:


YG / Sun

Con 35
Lab 34
Ukip 12
LD 9
Grn 4

Very close with just 6 days of campaigning to go.

Also this could be big:

http://www.theguardian.com/politics...xander-tory-plans-welfare-cuts-child-benefits

Possible cracks in a LD/Tory pact if the LDs are revealing explosive stuff like this.

Which Tory boy was trying to tell us that IDS was a compassionate human being? The guys a grade A twunt.

 

[1966efc]

Which Tory boy was trying to tell us that IDS was a compassionate human being? The guys a grade A twunt.

That would be me.

 

[davek]

Which Tory boy was trying to tell us that IDS was a compassionate human being? The guys a grade A twunt.

There was a Storyville on BBC4 the other night about Himmler. He came across as more compassionate than 'the quiet man'.

 

[daylightrobber]

That would be me.

Ha ha so it was.

Are you sure fella?

 

[1966efc]

You can't see into another person's soul. Strikes me from everything he's said that he is a genuine chap with limited vision (thanks to his upbringing) and a very limited ability to analyse. The results of his / the government's actions in welfare have been disastrous but you might as well criticise a dog for barking.

Others will disagree violently.

 

[daylightrobber]

This quote from Alexander in that article is very very telling

“For five years I won battle after battle to stop the Tories veering off to the right with ideological cuts and it has been worth it to keep the economy on track while ensuring a fairer society.”

 

[Whistlin' Dixie]

You can't see into another person's soul. Strikes me from everything he's said that he is a genuine chap with limited vision (thanks to his upbringing) and a very limited ability to analyse. The results of his / the government's actions in welfare have been disastrous but you might as well criticise a dog for barking.

Others will disagree violently.

Seen his CV????

http://www.bbc.co.uk/pressoffice/pressreleases/stories/2002/12_december/19/newsnight_ids_cv.shtml

If a jobseeker told as many fibs on theirs & got a job through they'd be leaving themselves wide open to a charge of obtaining pecuniary advantage by deception.

 

[The Esk]

Doesn't matter what your background is, there is nothing actually stopping you.

This is completely untrue - if you google "effect of parents income on a child's education" you will find numerous academic studies which demonstrate there is a huge link between the educational attainment of the Father (and his income) and his children.

There's no denying some go on to good academic achievement and successful careers but the chances of doing so reduce significantly as the parent's educational attainment and income levels fall.

www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171766_378097.pdf

"Key points

• Previous research has shown that the UK has relatively low levels of intergenerational earnings
mobility compared with other OECD countries. By identifying the childhood factors that matter
the most to the intergenerational transmission of poverty and disadvantage observed in the UK, it
may be possible to gain a better understanding of the policies needed to improve income mobility
across generations.

• Educational attainment has the largest impact on the likelihood of being in poverty and severely
materially deprived as an adult, both in the UK and the other EU countries studied. Holding all
else equal, in the UK, those with a low level of educational attainment are almost five times as
likely to be in poverty now and 11 times as likely to be severely materially deprived as those with
a high level of education.

• Growing up in a workless household also appears to have an impact on future poverty in the
UK. Holding all else equal, those who lived in a workless household at age 14 are around 1.5
times as likely to be in poverty compared with those where one adult was working. However, this
specific effect of worklessness was identified as a significant factor in only one other EU country.

• An individual’s assessment of their childhood household financial situation is not a significant
predictor of poverty and material deprivation in the UK once educational attainment is accounted
for. This suggests that household income during childhood mainly impacts future life chances
through the educational attainment of the child. However, these factors remain significant
predictors of poverty and severe material deprivation in the Southern and Eastern European
countries, even after controlling for educational attainment.

• The father’s level of education has the largest impact on the likelihood of low educational
attainment in the UK out of the factors examined. Holding all else equal, people are 7.5 times
more likely to have a low educational outcome themselves if their father had a low level of
education, compared with having a highly educated father. Parental education level also has
the largest effect on the likelihood of low educational attainment across the other EU countries,
though the extent of this transmission varies and is highest for the Southern European countries,
as well as some Eastern European countries and Baltic States.

• In the UK, there is also a relationship between people’s educational outcomes and their mother’s
educational level, the number of adults and children living in the household, the employment
status of the parents and the childhood household’s financial situation"

 

[peteblue]

According to Petespoll....

Conservative 40%
Labour 26%
LibDems 24%
UKIP 8 %
others 2%

 

[peteblue]

This is completely untrue - if you google "effect of parents income on a child's education" you will find numerous academic studies which demonstrate there is a huge link between the educational attainment of the Father (and his income) and his children.

There's no denying some go on to good academic achievement and successful careers but the chances of doing so reduce significantly as the parent's educational attainment and income levels fall.

www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171766_378097.pdf

"Key points

• Previous research has shown that the UK has relatively low levels of intergenerational earnings
mobility compared with other OECD countries. By identifying the childhood factors that matter
the most to the intergenerational transmission of poverty and disadvantage observed in the UK, it
may be possible to gain a better understanding of the policies needed to improve income mobility
across generations.

• Educational attainment has the largest impact on the likelihood of being in poverty and severely
materially deprived as an adult, both in the UK and the other EU countries studied. Holding all
else equal, in the UK, those with a low level of educational attainment are almost five times as
likely to be in poverty now and 11 times as likely to be severely materially deprived as those with
a high level of education.

• Growing up in a workless household also appears to have an impact on future poverty in the
UK. Holding all else equal, those who lived in a workless household at age 14 are around 1.5
times as likely to be in poverty compared with those where one adult was working. However, this
specific effect of worklessness was identified as a significant factor in only one other EU country.

• An individual’s assessment of their childhood household financial situation is not a significant
predictor of poverty and material deprivation in the UK once educational attainment is accounted
for. This suggests that household income during childhood mainly impacts future life chances
through the educational attainment of the child. However, these factors remain significant
predictors of poverty and severe material deprivation in the Southern and Eastern European
countries, even after controlling for educational attainment.

• The father’s level of education has the largest impact on the likelihood of low educational
attainment in the UK out of the factors examined. Holding all else equal, people are 7.5 times
more likely to have a low educational outcome themselves if their father had a low level of
education, compared with having a highly educated father. Parental education level also has
the largest effect on the likelihood of low educational attainment across the other EU countries,
though the extent of this transmission varies and is highest for the Southern European countries,
as well as some Eastern European countries and Baltic States.

• In the UK, there is also a relationship between people’s educational outcomes and their mother’s
educational level, the number of adults and children living in the household, the employment
status of the parents and the childhood household’s financial situation"

If only Labour hadn't done away with Grammar Schools which allowed kids from disadvantaged backgrounds to get the best education available.........

 

[chewee]

Tomorrow the Ipsos MORI phone poll is being described as a "corker" whatever that means. A few carrying out the poll have suggested it shows a large tory swing. Probably an outlier.

 

[tsubaki]

There was a Storyville on BBC4 the other night about Himmler. He came across as more compassionate than 'the quiet man'.

As a bit of an aside (and if you havent read it already), there is a biography of Himmler by an academic by the name of Peter Padfield that should really be required reading for everyone; or at least everyone who has ever wondered what it would be like if that quiet bloke in the corner office / pub / Paddock ever actually got his hands on real power.

 

[The Cowboy]

This is completely untrue - if you google "effect of parents income on a child's education" you will find numerous academic studies which demonstrate there is a huge link between the educational attainment of the Father (and his income) and his children.

There's no denying some go on to good academic achievement and successful careers but the chances of doing so reduce significantly as the parent's educational attainment and income levels fall.

"Key points

• Previous research has shown that the UK has relatively low levels of intergenerational earnings
mobility compared with other OECD countries. By identifying the childhood factors that matter
the most to the intergenerational transmission of poverty and disadvantage observed in the UK, it
may be possible to gain a better understanding of the policies needed to improve income mobility
across generations.

• Educational attainment has the largest impact on the likelihood of being in poverty and severely
materially deprived as an adult, both in the UK and the other EU countries studied. Holding all
else equal, in the UK, those with a low level of educational attainment are almost five times as
likely to be in poverty now and 11 times as likely to be severely materially deprived as those with
a high level of education.

• Growing up in a workless household also appears to have an impact on future poverty in the
UK. Holding all else equal, those who lived in a workless household at age 14 are around 1.5
times as likely to be in poverty compared with those where one adult was working. However, this
specific effect of worklessness was identified as a significant factor in only one other EU country.

• An individual’s assessment of their childhood household financial situation is not a significant
predictor of poverty and material deprivation in the UK once educational attainment is accounted
for. This suggests that household income during childhood mainly impacts future life chances
through the educational attainment of the child. However, these factors remain significant
predictors of poverty and severe material deprivation in the Southern and Eastern European
countries, even after controlling for educational attainment.

• The father’s level of education has the largest impact on the likelihood of low educational
attainment in the UK out of the factors examined. Holding all else equal, people are 7.5 times
more likely to have a low educational outcome themselves if their father had a low level of
education, compared with having a highly educated father. Parental education level also has
the largest effect on the likelihood of low educational attainment across the other EU countries,
though the extent of this transmission varies and is highest for the Southern European countries,
as well as some Eastern European countries and Baltic States.

• In the UK, there is also a relationship between people’s educational outcomes and their mother’s
educational level, the number of adults and children living in the household, the employment
status of the parents and the childhood household’s financial situation"

I'm not arguing that it's hard to break generational issues as you've mentioned, I'm merely stating a fact that the educational pathway through to a career absolutely is open to all.

 

[The Esk]

If only Labour hadn't done away with Grammar Schools which allowed kids from disadvantaged backgrounds to get the best education available.........

Pete, these studies compare the outcome of children whose parents were educated when Grammar schools were part of the education system so how is your point relevant?

 

[1966efc]

Seen his CV????

If a jobseeker told as many fibs on theirs & got a job through they'd be leaving themselves wide open to a charge of obtaining pecuniary advantage by deception.

Quite possibly. I'm simply referring to his involvement with the DWP.

I think (and I've got no reason to suppose I'm right) that history will judge his reforms as a misguided attempt to reform matters which penalised the poor and had the reverse effect of that which was intended. I doubt history will label him as a malicious hooligan - more a simple man overwhelmed.