As an Evertonian of 42 years, I have often looked back at managers and other officials at Everton and tried to pinpoint the moment I realised that they had failed and would not make a success of the role they were in.
In my experience, from my perspective, the club usually acts only later than this moment. For example, I "knew" Marcel Brands would not be a success when Everton signed Alex Iwobi. Sure, he's had three decent months, but he has largely been a disastrous waste of money. Arsenal fans are still laughing...
With Roberto, it was the signing of Aiden McGeady. This summed up the recklessness of Martinez: indulging an indisciplined, flaky, flashy luxury player (well, if you shop for luxury in Aldi). As an Irishman, I knew in my bones that this was a fatal error. Roberto's "flash in the pan" made flesh. Still, at that point, Roberto was still in the ascendancy. A 3-0 hammering at Southampton later that year was my moment of confirmation.
With Moyes, it was the cup defeat to Reading when only Man City - who we regularly schooled at the time - remained a real live threat in the competition. Blew his chance.
The Watford hammering under Benitez shook me. For all the controversy of his appointment, he started well, but the wheels came off spectacularly and, given the atmosphere around the club, I felt, deep down, that there was no coming back from that - even if he simply went on to dig his own grave afterwards.
As for Frank, I never rated him. But he earned his shot at proving me wrong at the very end of last season. He oversaw an escape that Houdini would have been proud of - even if, like Harry, he had tied himself in knots first. And his "moment"? Well, despite my scepticism of his abilities, it was only the 3-0 hiding at Bournemouth that completely convinced me that he had passed the point of return. Matter of time now.
Thelwell, for now, hasn't reached that "point". Here's hoping he doesn't.
When did you think "Such and Such" was a busted flush?