Watford v Everton
Read Jake Osgathorpe's full preview
Everton's recent upturn in form has come thanks to an improvement in organisation and stability, with both contributing to stronger defensive displays.
Across their last five - in which they have played Leicester (twice), Manchester United, Chelsea and Liverpool - the Toffees have
allowed 1.34 xGA per game. That is impressive, and a marked decrease on their season average before that run, which stood at nearly 2.0 xGA per game.
In that same sample, Everton have
generated just 1.04 xGF per game, which tells us that chances have been few and far between at either end in their games of late, and I expect this trend to continue as they visit a toothless Watford.
So, it was pleasantly surprising to see
UNDER 2.5 GOALS available at a best price of 39/40, with the 10/11 widely available also considered a decent enough price.
Score prediction: Watford 0-1 Everton (
Sky Bet odds: 6/1)