2024/25 Relegation Battle (Without Everton!)

[brieverton]

Not meaning to patronise anyone but don't understand how anyone can still be worried now. We don't even have to look at ourselves, you just have to look at how Ipswich and Leicester (Southampton are down) have done recently and all season to see they're not going to be able to get above us.

Leicester 4 wins and 15 defeats in 24 matches
Ipswich 3 wins and 14 defeats in 24 matches

How are either of them going to then pull off like 8 wins in 14 or only have say 5 or 6 defeats in 14? Just won't happen.

I'm confident we'll be ok, for me its as much when we are mathematically safe than if.

These last games at The Old Lady, personally I don't want to need points in them, even if it's more an artificial need.

There was so much worry just a couple of weeks back about our status when we move and it would be great to see out the final few games at least and not have any need attached to them. As we were comfortable last season too.

 

[lieneverton]

We're 95% there. I've faith Moyes won't let anyone think its done yet, but barring both a total collapse combined with a huge sudden upturn in form from other teams I'm happy to start looking up rather than down. I don't think that's arrogant to say, as we should absolutely be aiming to pick off a few teams now we've almost caught up to that pack of upper bottom half teams.

I don't think we're going to suddenly surge to the top half but you'd have to say we have a good chance of climbing up a couple more positions before the end of the season providing we keep this level of focus.

And every position is vital for us - difference between finishing 13th or 16th could be the difference between us securing a key signing or not in the summer.

 

[Gilbert..]

Not meaning to patronise anyone but don't understand how anyone can still be worried now. We don't even have to look at ourselves, you just have to look at how Ipswich and Leicester (Southampton are down) have done recently and all season to see they're not going to be able to get above us.

Leicester 4 wins and 15 defeats in 24 matches
Ipswich 3 wins and 14 defeats in 24 matches

How are either of them going to then pull off like 8 wins in 14 or only have say 5 or 6 defeats in 14? Just won't happen.

Think its called supporting Everton and most things very rarely go to plan.

 

[canuckblue]

I think most understand that we’re probably out of it, but years of Everton related trauma stops you from fully voicing it. Even if every metric, precedent and trend tells you one thing, that tiny little ‘Everton, that’ chance is still enough to err caution.

Following Everton lately almost qualifies as PTSD.

 

[Gallaeo]

I'm confident we'll be ok, for me its as much when we are mathematically safe than if.

These last games at The Old Lady, personally I don't want to need points in them, even if it's more an artificial need.

There was so much worry just a couple of weeks back about our status when we move and it would be great to see out the final few games at least and not have any need attached to them. As we were comfortable last season too.

Is Sheff United last yr the only match at Goodison in the last three seasons where we’ve been safe mathematically?

 

[SLAVEN BILIC]

We're 95% there. I've faith Moyes won't let anyone think its done yet, but barring both a total collapse combined with a huge sudden upturn in form from other teams I'm happy to start looking up rather than down. I don't think that's arrogant to say, as we should absolutely be aiming to pick off a few teams now we've almost caught up to that pack of upper bottom half teams.

I don't think we're going to suddenly surge to the top half but you'd have to say we have a good chance of climbing up a couple more positions before the end of the season providing we keep this level of focus.

And every position is vital for us - difference between finishing 13th or 16th could be the difference between us securing a key signing or not in the summer.

Indeed. A derby win puts us 13th and 12pts above the drop, it’ll be a task to get into the top half as that would be a further 5pts away and would need Brighton lose a few more. Finishing in the higher spaces of the bottom half is not beyond a possibility at this moment.

 

[toffee-boy]

Am I right in thinking people's guestimates are 6 more points to be safe?

 

[T Bone]

Burn this thread down.. don't let it take your soul

*hot topic

 

[superkeeper]

Am I right in thinking people's guestimates are 6 more points to be safe?

I would say more like 9/10 points and we’re probably safe. If we finished on 36 points, it would mean 2 of Wolves, Leicester and Ipswich would have to win 7 games, if you assume no draws and the remaining 7 are losses. If you factor in draws into the equation, then obviously the number of games they ‘can afford to lose’ drops, if for example, 2 of them, win 6 games, they would need to draw at least 3 others (if you factor in our GD), while losing the other 5.

36 points for us, would mean 3 wins and a draw, or 2 wins and 4 draws etc. Fair to say, I’m confident of us winning that amount and more between now and the end of the season. I wasn’t thinking that in mid January.

 

[mikel_88]

Not meaning to patronise anyone but don't understand how anyone can still be worried now. We don't even have to look at ourselves, you just have to look at how Ipswich and Leicester (Southampton are down) have done recently and all season to see they're not going to be able to get above us.

Leicester 4 wins and 15 defeats in 24 matches
Ipswich 3 wins and 14 defeats in 24 matches

How are either of them going to then pull off like 8 wins in 14 or only have say 5 or 6 defeats in 14? Just won't happen.

Wouldnt say i am worried but still be looking at it until its over and the club is safe. Agree what you have said just the past few seasons has done this

 

[GrandOldTeam]

Not meaning to patronise anyone but don't understand how anyone can still be worried now. We don't even have to look at ourselves, you just have to look at how Ipswich and Leicester (Southampton are down) have done recently and all season to see they're not going to be able to get above us.

Leicester 4 wins and 15 defeats in 24 matches
Ipswich 3 wins and 14 defeats in 24 matches

How are either of them going to then pull off like 8 wins in 14 or only have say 5 or 6 defeats in 14? Just won't happen.

Appreciate where you are coming from - felt if we beat Leicester that's that.

But then I understand a team that's been in a relegation scrap for 3 successive seasons is in one until it's confirmed they not. 9 points clear with 37% of the season left or not.

Playing without pressure will help us loads though, it's one thing the point deduction killed us on last season. It really prevented the opportunity to kick on when every point felt so precious.

 

[joe1878]

I am usually the most pessimistic supporter ever, but even I know we are safe.

Leicester have to win 3 games alone (won 4 all season) and us not get another point.

It feels great not having to worry about the other teams results for change.

WE'RE STAYING UP BABY!!

 

[Lanolin]

Am I right in thinking people's guestimates are 6 more points to be safe?

Daft as it sounds, we're just safe when we're safe. I wouldn't be particularly surprised if we could stay up without getting another point to be honest, but you just don't know. I don't think putting arbitrary amounts down as a target really works, we just have to try and get as many points as we can and see where that takes us.

 

[Simon Buttle]

Daft as it sounds, we're just safe when we're safe. I wouldn't be particularly surprised if we could stay up without getting another point to be honest, but you just don't know. I don't think putting arbitrary amounts down as a target really works, we just have to try and get as many points as we can and see where that takes us.

This really. The more points we get then we hopefully will finish higher up the league table which then results in larger prize money and makes us look more attractive to future signings. We keep fighting for points till its over imo.

 

[Runub]

According to the Opta super computer we get relegated in fewer than 1% of the Opta supercomputer’s rest-of-season simulations following last weekends games. Having been through a number of recent relegation battles and in the 90's I am still nervous but can the super computer be wrong