We need to get a grip of these cowboy journalists going on national radio and spouting unchecked drivel.
State of this Draper here.
The compensation claim of that magnitude is absolute rubbish to be honest. It doesn’t make any logical sense.
In my mind, you can approach it in 3 ways.
Scenario 1, the points deducted are applied to the season in which the assessment was made. Which I believe is 21-22.
Minus 10 points in that season. That season we finished on 39 points. Taking 10 points from us would have left us on 29 points. Dropping two places below Leeds and Burnley (who were relegated). In that scenario, Leeds should be awarded compensation totalling the amount of lost revenue for finishing a place below where they would have. Burnley would be awarded compensation for the place below plus the estimated cost of relegation (c£85-100m) less the cost parachute payments received (£0 for Burnley I think as they were promoted straight away). To give context, Burnley’s total revenue that season was £123m of which £105m was from TV. That’s a hard cap for compensation. However, their revenue in the following season was £80m so the loss of relegation is most likely going to be closer to £25m.
In this scenario, compensation would be around £30m in total.
Scenario 2 would be that the points are split roughly equally over the assessment period. 3 points per season for 19/20, 20/21 and 4 points for 21/22. In that scenario we wouldn’t drop any places for 19/20 or 20/21 and the outcome for 21/22 would be exactly the same as for Scenario 1. Total compensation of around £30m.
Scenario 3 is more complex. It would be to remove our results from the table for the 21-22 season. That’s hard to calculate. You’d have to take points off people who beat us or drew with us and then calculate the league table from there.
if it was just for the final season, that would mean Burnley and Leeds would lose 3 points and 1 point respectively. Southampton and Villa would also lose 3 points a piece but the outcome would be the same. In that scenario, both Leeds and Burnley would get compensation for being a place higher, as would the bottom two clubs (effectively playing us bottom).
Total compensation would be £10m.
However that methodology is unlikely to be used as it could have implications across the table as teams above us beat us too. Would someone else win the league? Would someone else get CL. It’s also unlikely to be a route that either Leeds or Burnley would attempt as they would reduce their potential compensation.
Realistically, the only club that has a genuinely issue is Burnley and even then I believe £100m is way way off.
