2020/21 Carlo Ancelotti

[Egil Olsen]

Yes we are and you are suffering from recency bias.

Fact is he's outperformed every manager we have had since the 72 pts season so far. That is an improvement on where we've been. First time in years we still have something to play for at the end of January.

I think it is wise to have two thoughts in your head at the same time. On the one hand, we can say that we have performed well in terms of points. If we win the two matches that we have not played, then we are fighting for the top 4.

On the other hand, I think it is wise to admit that in terms of play, we have delivered below what we can expect. The indicators indicate that we have received far more than we can expect from our play.

It's hard to believe that we can continue to play this way, and at the same time get enough points. On the other hand, we may start to play well again. So for now, there is reason for some unrest, but there is no reason to lose hope.

 

[degsy]

I feel for Carlo let down by dead beat footballers time and time again. He is a class act and his only problem is the players he has inherited.

First it was the Real Madrid players who let him down, Then the Bayern players decided to join in. Even when he moved down a level the Napoli players decided to undermine him. Fast-forward to Everton and again it is the players fault.

Teflon Don Carlo just carries on with his reputation intact. The bit I don't understand is if it is the players fault why does he keep taking players from club to club.

I was just thinking much the same thing.
Ancelotti puts out an 11 and it performs...ABCDEF&G
Ancelotti puts out a different but similar squad, due to injuries suspensions whatever and it performs...TUVWXY&Z
All ok so far
Squad 1 and 2 are mixed again, due to whatever and instead of ABCDs or VWXYZs we get !%#&@WTFs??
If a player can't repeat the basic things he did from Wednesday to Sunday how can the manager plan for anything.

If it wasn't before and Ancelotti and Brands didn't know it before...which they did, because they're not total dummies.
This season always was a...
'Potential write it off, get rid of deadwood and anything we acheive is a bonus season.'*
* but this - "Time to do stuff 'goodwill' thing won't last forever, both in the Board room or on here."

Our GD, tells the true tale, we were/are in a false position...*looks over at Moyes and W Ham...and you are too matey

We're currently dead half way in the season; P 19, 33pts.
Come the end of the season we won't be on; P38, 66pts
The top 7 teams will be, in some permutation or other...the old top 6 + Leicester...(with Arsenal as the only big worry in this accumulator)
We could at best be 8th or 11th due to GD.

Covers arse...or there could be a decent signing(s) at the 11th hour to pep our season up
But I don't hold out much hope with these inconsistent bottlers.

 

[Deco]

No you can't blame Carlo it is the players fault. He won Real Madrid their 10th CL title single-handedly and then the players got him sacked the following season.

Ah yes, so he doesn’t take any credit for the CL win but takes the blame when he was sacked the next season.

Let me guess when we beat Leeds on Wednesday it’ll be because Leeds played badly rather than any credit going to Carlo.

 

[johnjoeefc]

I was starting to turn against carlo before the Chelsea game, but that performance and the ones subsequently have made me change my mind.

In This recent poor run of form I don't feel the same as I did then. I think there have been a lot of positives this season. The main one probably being how solid we look with the 4 centre backs playing at the back. Are we really blaming Carlo for the last 2 results? Yes midweek Leicester had more of the ball but they didn't have many good chances. Pickford let us down there. And then after we still created the better chances to win it.

As for the Newcastle game, he chose the side that nearly everyone else would have, but too many key players are out of form. Mainly Richarlison, he's been a shadow of the player he was last season. Our problem is that we don't have the necessary back up to be able to replace Richarlison or DCL when out of form and therefore results like the Newcastle one can easily happen.

Carlo can't be held responsible for this recent run, its mainly down to things out of his hands. I'm sure he's got ideas of how to improve us in the summer

 

[gwladysnight]

I hope we finish in a false position as high up the league as possible.

That would be to Carlo's credit, not his detriment.

It doesn't work like that though. You have periods when you perform above what is expected from the chances you create. That is unsustainable though.

In our last 6 League games statistically we haven't created enough chances to actually score a goal in any of those games. Our expected goals has been less than one in 6 games on the run.

If you look at our expected goals versus the opposition and how the game should pan out we should have 25 points now.

Leicester last season massively overachieved against xG in the first half of the season. They reverted to type and had a massive fall off. Man United have done the same this season.

 

[Efcjake]

It doesn't work like that though. You have periods when you perform above what is expected from the chances you create. That is unsustainable though.

In our last 6 League games statistically we haven't created enough chances to actually score a goal in any of those games. Our expected goals has been less than one in 6 games on the run.

If you look at our expected goals versus the opposition and how the game should pan out we should have 25 points now.

Leicester last season massively overachieved against xG in the first half of the season. They reverted to type and had a massive fall off. Man United have done the same this season.

Except it does though. If we win matches, playing poorly or playing nicely doesn't change anything. We don't get more points for it.

As long as we keep up the pace that we've been at this season we should do quite well. When a good finish isn't possible then you can all start complaining about the style of footy but while we're picking up points and still in a shout of Europe I don't care what the footy looks like.

By all means, keep looking at stats and projections and making yourselves miserable about where you think we "should" be in the table instead of being happy with where we are and could still finish.

 

[gwladysnight]

Except it does though. If we win matches, playing poorly or playing nicely doesn't change anything. We don't get more points for it.

As long as we keep up the pace that we've been at this season we should do quite well. When a good finish isn't possible then you can all start complaining about the style of footy but while we're picking up points and still in a shout of Europe I don't care what the footy looks like.

By all means, keep looking at stats and projections and making yourselves miserable about where you think we "should" be in the table instead of being happy with where we are and could still finish.

You are missing the point.

It isn't about playing poorly or playing nicely. To win games you have to score goals. To score goals you have to create chances. In the short term you can create very few chances but still score goals and win games but that is unsustainable in the long term.

That is where we are at.

In the last 6 games we haven't created enough chances to justify a goal a game. The best example is Wolves, we created chances that should have equated to less than a third of a goal. We scored twice and won the game. That is unsustainable.

 

[Efcjake]

You are missing the point.

It isn't about playing poorly or playing nicely. To win games you have to score goals. To score goals you have to create chances. In the short term you can create very few chances but still score goals and win games but that is unsustainable in the long term.

That is where we are at.

In the last 6 games we haven't created enough chances to justify a goal a game. The best example is Wolves, we created chances that should have equated to less than a third of a goal. We scored twice and won the game. That is unsustainable.

No I'm not. I just don't agree with it.

We have been winning the points we have won to get us within a shout of the top. We have had to have some consistency to be able to do that. That sort of long term projection you're putting forward is a nice idea but every game of football is a coin toss over 90 minutes. As long as we keep winning when the stats say we shouldn't then I dont care. It is only a problem when that stops.

A draw against Leicester and a poor loss to Newcastle aren't enough to sound the alarm bells and hit panic stations.

 

[hktoffee]

I was just thinking much the same thing.
Ancelotti puts out an 11 and it performs...ABCDEF&G
Ancelotti puts out a different but similar squad, due to injuries suspensions whatever and it performs...TUVWXY&Z
All ok so far
Squad 1 and 2 are mixed again, due to whatever and instead of ABCDs or VWXYZs we get !%#&@WTFs??
If a player can't repeat the basic things he did from Wednesday to Sunday how can the manager plan for anything.

If it wasn't before and Ancelotti and Brands didn't know it before...which they did, because they're not total dummies.
This season always was a...
'Potential write it off, get rid of deadwood and anything we acheive is a bonus season.'*
* but this - "Time to do stuff 'goodwill' thing won't last forever, both in the Board room or on here."

Our GD, tells the true tale, we were/are in a false position...*looks over at Moyes and W Ham...and you are too matey

We're currently dead half way in the season; P 19, 33pts.
Come the end of the season we won't be on; P38, 66pts
The top 7 teams will be, in some permutation or other...the old top 6 + Leicester...(with Arsenal as the only big worry in this accumulator)
We could at best be 8th or 11th due to GD.

Covers arse...or there could be a decent signing(s) at the 11th hour to pep our season up
But I don't hold out much hope with these inconsistent bottlers.

We have 2 games in hand for Christ sake.

 

[R.Reddington]

Going into a MASSIVE week and a half for the club: Leeds (a), Man United (a), Tottenham (h). Lose all 3 and our season is practically over. We will have lost too much ground on the top spots and we will have crashed out of the FA Cup. We will see how Carlo manages to get the players up for these games and I hope they play for him.

 

[Dan Tanner]

I think it is wise to have two thoughts in your head at the same time. On the one hand, we can say that we have performed well in terms of points. If we win the two matches that we have not played, then we are fighting for the top 4.

On the other hand, I think it is wise to admit that in terms of play, we have delivered below what we can expect. The indicators indicate that we have received far more than we can expect from our play.

It's hard to believe that we can continue to play this way, and at the same time get enough points. On the other hand, we may start to play well again. So for now, there is reason for some unrest, but there is no reason to lose hope.

Schrodinger's cat you say...

 

[hktoffee]

You are missing the point.

It isn't about playing poorly or playing nicely. To win games you have to score goals. To score goals you have to create chances. In the short term you can create very few chances but still score goals and win games but that is unsustainable in the long term.

That is where we are at.

In the last 6 games we haven't created enough chances to justify a goal a game. The best example is Wolves, we created chances that should have equated to less than a third of a goal. We scored twice and won the game. That is unsustainable.

To win a match first thing first we need to know how to defend and keep clean sheet. We can still win a match with 2 shots on target and won 1-0. To be able to defend is essential. Absolutely hate this attacking football stuff we have seen enough from the previous managers it was a hoax, a myth trying to cover up their inability to setup a defence and we were sitting in lower midtable moaning about getting beaten 2-3 week in week out.

 

[TheBigIguana]

No I'm not. I just don't agree with it.

We have been winning the points we have won to get us within a shout of the top. We have had to have some consistency to be able to do that. That sort of long term projection you're putting forward is a nice idea but every game of football is a coin toss over 90 minutes. As long as we keep winning when the stats say we shouldn't then I dont care. It is only a problem when that stops.

A draw against Leicester and a poor loss to Newcastle aren't enough to sound the alarm bells and hit panic stations.

It doesn't have to be though. The way we are playing this is true but good teams aren't tossing a coin each game they're rolling a dye where 5 of the sides are them winning. This is what people mean (it is what I mean at least, but others seem to be thinking the same way) when they say we have to play better. Not that it needs to be pretty or nice football but that it needs to be something that doesn't equate to a coin flip every time.

 

[TheBigIguana]

We have 2 games in hand for Christ sake.

We do but they're against City who are definitely better than us and Villa who are at worst in the same neighborhood as us quality wise. I don't think you can reliably pencil in anything from those at the minute.

 

[gwladysnight]

No I'm not. I just don't agree with it.

We have been winning the points we have won to get us within a shout of the top. We have had to have some consistency to be able to do that. That sort of long term projection you're putting forward is a nice idea but every game of football is a coin toss over 90 minutes. As long as we keep winning when the stats say we shouldn't then I dont care. It is only a problem when that stops.

A draw against Leicester and a poor loss to Newcastle aren't enough to sound the alarm bells and hit panic stations.

I wouldn't have a problem if it was the odd game. The thing is you cannot beat the numbers in the long run. In the games we were winning we were massively overachieving.

In the last 6 games our opponent has created better scoring opportunities than we have. Usually that means you get a couple of draws and four defeats at best. We have taken 10 points from a possible 18.

That isn't going to continue.