Everton Transfer Thread - Summer 2020

[Brisan123]

I'm not even talking FFP I'm just talking about the wider economical landscape post-COVID.

In a recession rich men become even richer
Its the poor that suffer

 

[Brisan123]

Rob Green was “the England goalkeeper”, so was David James, so was Paul Robinson, is that supposed to be an accolade?

So were Banks ,Shilton ,Seaman and Bonetti

 

[Brisan123]

Do we go with a cheap replacement like a Fabianski for a few seasons or get ripped off for a Henderson type. Over to you Marcel.

reports are saying that Italian football will not have fans in the grounds until January 21 at the earliest.
This will put a lot of italian clubs at risk of bankruptcy.
I can see a lot of Italian clubs having fire sales especially with their higher paid players .
Surely there are one or two top quality keepers in the Italian league ,Donnorumma or however you spell his name

 

[TheBigIguana]

So you wouldn't have Bale Cavani Allan and Rodriguez in an Everton line up ???

Maybe James.

But if it's an all or none thing I'd go none.

 

[Nymzee]

In a recession rich men become even richer
Its the poor that suffer

We're not in Mother Russia.

 

[Brisan123]

Yes good post mate. Generally speaking all American owners want to use it as a cash cow, though they have different ways to do it. However in a downturn, any implied value in shares will be hammered and it may be that they seek to cover this by monetising the playing assets. The difficulty is going to be that the playing assets prices will be collapsing.

I happen to think the article is partly correct. In a collapsing market with less cash assets become a useful commodity. I think this was more common in an era with less money, so swapping may become a useful way of doing it Crucially for FFP it may prevent a big loss showing on the balance sheet (as you can write pretty much whatever value you want for both players).

I also think loans will continue. This trend was being brought in before this crash, so you can only imagine it gets accelerated several times over after. Essentially the value in older players has collapsed, so if someone covers their wages it's about the best you can hope. Expect to see more 2 year loan deals to get people to the end of contracts.

That being said, cash will not disappear. Clubs are going to need cash to run. For American owners, who will not be putting money in they are going to need cash. That means sales. The interesting question may be, if FSG planned on needing to sell Mane to raise funds before this crash, what happens if they planned to get say £120m and they only get £50? It may facilitate them needing to sell a 2nd player. If this happens more broadly, a declining economy then starts to collapse. On the 2nd player you may only get£35m.

In this context FFP makes little sense. It was an inflation busting mechanism, and will only further heighten difficulties in a deflation. Anyone familiar with the 1929 crash will know, the orthodoxy of the Federal Reserve in refusing to shift from inflation busting procedures adversely multiplied a damaging situation. Likewise, the detail of FFP is going to worsen this crisis. Every club is going to be in debt, and they are all going to be reliant upon sales to show a profit. Yet if everyone tries to sell, and few want to buy, prices just tank (and prices are already tanking due to the huge reduction in money available).

I won't repeat in too much detail, but in the Liverpool thread on the other page I put in about a club (I strongly suspect Liverpool) losing £9m a week supposedly. This is catastrophic. It implies they are losing almost all of their sponsorship revenue. It would suggest they have ver open opt outs, and it may be that even when football re-starts it will be hard for them to get the full value. They also have a wage bill circa £300+ that needs paying. The two can't match up.

At every level, this is a moment for Usmanov. If you are prepared to be a buyer in this context, and put money in, you will be getting a whole lot out. Not just because the price of players will probably halve (if not more) but because the wider context is a shrink. If everybody else is only offering loans or exchange of players, and you desperately need cash, suddenly the guy with Cash, offering even 30% of what you might have got 2 months ago becomes very tempting.

This crisis could work out very favourably for us, and for Moshiri/Usmanov, who have poured money in vain at the project (largely because inflation have minimised it's affects) could find themselves in a wholly different situation now.

No point in shaving if you cannot get your hair cut or go out to the pub lol

 

[Brisan123]

Yes good post mate. Generally speaking all American owners want to use it as a cash cow, though they have different ways to do it. However in a downturn, any implied value in shares will be hammered and it may be that they seek to cover this by monetising the playing assets. The difficulty is going to be that the playing assets prices will be collapsing.

I happen to think the article is partly correct. In a collapsing market with less cash assets become a useful commodity. I think this was more common in an era with less money, so swapping may become a useful way of doing it Crucially for FFP it may prevent a big loss showing on the balance sheet (as you can write pretty much whatever value you want for both players).

I also think loans will continue. This trend was being brought in before this crash, so you can only imagine it gets accelerated several times over after. Essentially the value in older players has collapsed, so if someone covers their wages it's about the best you can hope. Expect to see more 2 year loan deals to get people to the end of contracts.

That being said, cash will not disappear. Clubs are going to need cash to run. For American owners, who will not be putting money in they are going to need cash. That means sales. The interesting question may be, if FSG planned on needing to sell Mane to raise funds before this crash, what happens if they planned to get say £120m and they only get £50? It may facilitate them needing to sell a 2nd player. If this happens more broadly, a declining economy then starts to collapse. On the 2nd player you may only get£35m.

In this context FFP makes little sense. It was an inflation busting mechanism, and will only further heighten difficulties in a deflation. Anyone familiar with the 1929 crash will know, the orthodoxy of the Federal Reserve in refusing to shift from inflation busting procedures adversely multiplied a damaging situation. Likewise, the detail of FFP is going to worsen this crisis. Every club is going to be in debt, and they are all going to be reliant upon sales to show a profit. Yet if everyone tries to sell, and few want to buy, prices just tank (and prices are already tanking due to the huge reduction in money available).

I won't repeat in too much detail, but in the Liverpool thread on the other page I put in about a club (I strongly suspect Liverpool) losing £9m a week supposedly. This is catastrophic. It implies they are losing almost all of their sponsorship revenue. It would suggest they have ver open opt outs, and it may be that even when football re-starts it will be hard for them to get the full value. They also have a wage bill circa £300+ that needs paying. The two can't match up.

At every level, this is a moment for Usmanov. If you are prepared to be a buyer in this context, and put money in, you will be getting a whole lot out. Not just because the price of players will probably halve (if not more) but because the wider context is a shrink. If everybody else is only offering loans or exchange of players, and you desperately need cash, suddenly the guy with Cash, offering even 30% of what you might have got 2 months ago becomes very tempting.

This crisis could work out very favourably for us, and for Moshiri/Usmanov, who have poured money in vain at the project (largely because inflation have minimised it's affects) could find themselves in a wholly different situation now.

As in the property market always bargains to be had in a recession .
Its when the rich get richer and the poor get poorer

 

[Brisan123]

We're not going to sell 3 keepers in one window

We are not selling 3 keepers
Lossi will be back ,Steks is out of contract and Pickford if sold will be replaced
Lossi only went to get game time for the Euros

 

[Brisan123]

Rumours are Lossl was the cause of Gbamin's horrendous injury, a reckless challenge in training and people were unhappy. If true I wouldn't be surprised to see him gone in the summer, being shipped out on loan in January kind of backs this up.

Stopped reading after that

 

[Brisan123]

I wonder with clubs stretched for finaces will it be easier to loan out some of our dead wood for the year, Bolaise,Sandro andBesic in the last year of their deals, come June.

Clubs will want actual footballers though

 

[firefighterblue]

Read that usmanov has leased 80 oil tankers over the last week's. Filling them with oil all at the zero price. When not if the demand for oil comes it's estimated that he could make 3.4 billion dollars.

 

[Dymak]

We should be going for that Thomas Partay that Arsenal are trying to sign!

 

[Brisan123]

Lets wait and see. Apparently he may have rejected PSG. United I'm not so sure how well they shift into the new normal with massive cuts to sponsorship and the Glazers in charge, or if he really fancies playing for OGS. City again yes maybe. I mean he doesn't strike me as a classic Pep signing, but if I was Pep he'd be top of my list this summer.

I know United seem to be going hard for him, to seen a lot on City being linked though. If any of those are serious on him he will go there. However if the window drags on and they haven't sold him then you never know. We become an option.

I'll be frank, I think prices start off slower this window and gradually shrink. There may be a full on moment of collapse ah la the oil prices. But either way, the price at the end will be a lot lower than anything we are used too, probably even now in terms of prices, where sellers will try to match players at prices close to what they want.

Brands has shown he's prepared to hang in late into the window, and I think if we can do this again, there will be some real bargains to be had, as sides get really desperate. Like, we need to sell someone or we may go into administration desperate.

Koulibaly to me fits the profile we saw of Zaha last year, of a special talent. Turns 28 late in the summer and would probably need to be a "Moshiri" authorities signing. I didn't agree with it with Zaha, but I'm on board with Koulibaly. If he were to come, you change plans as a manager, you play Holgate in midfield. You go to 3 at the back etc. He's a fantastic bonus.

But yes I digress, if he gets matched early it won't be us, but if there's no resolution and it drags, we probably become quite excited.

It all depends on how long it takes for fans to be allowed back into football grounds.
Clubs in France ,Spain and especially Italy will struggle without gate receipts.
Also it will be interesting to see if sponsorship deals are renegotiated after this calms down
I cant see USM backing out of any of our deals
Clubs as you say could be desperate and will not be haggling over prices

 

[Brisan123]

We should be going for that Thomas Partay that Arsenal are trying to sign!

That's one proper player

 

[Brisan123]

Read that usmanov has leased 80 oil tankers over the last week's. Filling them with oil all at the zero price. When not if the demand for oil comes it's estimated that he could make 3.4 billion dollars.

Anyone who has storage for oil is actually being paid to take the oil .
Oil is now in negative price territory
Brent is still at 20$ or thereabouts .
So if as you say Usmanov has 80 empty oil tankers he will indeed make a lot of money