Everton Transfer Thread - Summer 2020

[Stephenlloyd]

Or clubs will think "actually might be able to keep my players now"?

There will be a lot of teams that need to sell

 

[bluebud]

Or clubs will think "actually might be able to keep my players now"?

Only media reports but looks like Juve want Rabiot off the books as he did'nt manage to dislodge any of their existing mid's, Allan has fallen out with the owner and Gattuso at Napoli, Toulouse got relegated. The French and Italian clubs seem to be the worst effected by this crisis, I think they will need to sell, Barca definitely do, everyone other than Messi is up for sale there.

 

[Nymzee]

There will be a lot of teams that need to sell

Yeh but maybe not the kinda teams people in here want to fish in (Real Madrid, Napoli, Juve etc.)

 

[bluebud]

Yeh but maybe not the kinda teams people in here want to fish in (Real Madrid, Napoli, Juve etc.)

Aren't these the club's most affected by the Covid crisis? Hugh wage bills and a large proportion of their inome from match day revenue and sponsorship payments, conversely Everton have the third lowest stadium matchday revenue, one of the lowest ticket prices and sponsorship deals with "our owners" companies, some of which are due for renewal this summer which provides the opportunity to pump some money into the team.

 

[catcherintherye]

I am curious then how Allan would represent finding some kind of hidden value?

Yes though, I do think that younger players tend to be where the top sides currently miss. Very few are stockpiling players 20-23 that seem to have big futures and trying to develop them simply because they don't have to. They can buy all those players at 25 when they're top notch. Since we can't it would make sense imo to get in the door earlier. It isn't fool proof but it can work if we commit to it, which might mean not gaining anything right away. But as we aren't gaining anything right now anyway, why should that matter?

I think the reality is most of the to teams do do exactly the above. Since FFP was introduced they all had to start aggressive doing that in order to show profits. Chelsea, Liverpool, Arsenal are all very active in that market and increasingly now so are Manchester United. You then look at your Southamptons, Leicesters and Wolves who are trying to do the same and it is very congested.

Under Walsh we tried to circumnavigate this by often buying younger. Vlasic, Sandro, Lookman, Gibson, Bowler, Adeninran, Onyekuru etc all came in. In all honesty it was a disaster. Neither the managers, the fans or crucially the owner was prepared to be patient enough to allow young players time to develop. I mean crikey, look at the criticism Davies gets when he plays.

What the owner has done with appointing Ancelotti is get a manager in who is not just about the tomorrow, but also quite good on the now. Not every manager can mange and utilise more experienced players, though Ancelotti has proven he can time and again, so it begins to make more sense.

As for the hidden value, yes I do think there's actually a lot of hidden value in not just old players but older players. Footballers can play until their mid 30's in many cases. There may not be a sell on fee at the end of it, but you can get many years good service. In a turbulent market that has value too.

 

[Nymzee]

Aren't these the club's most affected by the Covid crisis? Hugh wage bills and a large proportion of their inome from match day revenue and sponsorship payments, conversely Everton have the third lowest stadium matchday revenue, one of the lowest ticket prices and sponsorship deals with "our owners" companies, some of which are due for renewal this summer which provides the opportunity to pump some money into the team.

Clubs like that always find a way. Conversely the details about Everton you posted are why our finances are so shocking.

 

[cronullasharks]

Are we still signing all these proper naughty midfielders today?

 

[bluebud]

Clubs like that always find a way. Conversely the details about Everton you posted are why our finances are so shocking.

I think we've got some smart people running the club these days, I guarantee you they will be looking at ways they can use this situation to move Everton forward.
We'll have a new shirt sponsor this summer +£40m, shirt manufacturer +£15m, I think the Finch Farm sponsorship is due to be renewed as well? we'd only need to raise £20m from sales to raise the £75 m I sugested as our spending, that's not even accounting for the TV revenue.

 

[catcherintherye]

@bluebud @catcherintherye @TheBigIguana @Dymak

The main reasons I can see to sign an older player are:

They give you a short term (1-3 years) high level of performance which theoretically means that players around them benefit.

Young players potential can be fasttracked with top players around them.

You will get consistent performance while with younger players they will be inconsistent and usually far more expensive.


If there is a drop in values this year with rebounds predicted in 1-2 years time, then it would be pure stupidity to sign 'assets' which will further decrease in value. What we pay now could well be at their highest price.

Rather than Allan lets say we go for Sangare, instead of James we sign Tonali etc etc.

Those 'investments' even if the players performances stay the same the market values will rise in 1-2 seasons.

However, the exception to this would be if their fees are very low (or free), loans and we also sign u23 players around them.

There should be so much value now that players worth £60mil+ (Zaniolo / Tonali etc) will now be valued at £30-40mil.

We need to be going after that market and aiming for the long term growth of the club. We could even buy them simply to double our money in 2 seasons time.

Yes all very good points. I think we will probably see a bottoming out for 12 months then growth again. It makes sense to sign prospects at this point in that they will be able to ride out this drop and grow again. However I can see sense, in certain positions in signing a player who can just do the job you require him to do. I don't think a starting 11 can have 11 projects. You need to have 2 or 3 and the rest as consistent as possible.

 

[catcherintherye]

Clubs like that always find a way. Conversely the details about Everton you posted are why our finances are so shocking.

I think we have to understand that a recession, and particularly one as sharp and dramatic as this re-writes most of the existing rules that existed before. It will catch teams out. It doesn't mean they can't re-group in the medium term if they make lots of good decisions, but there are enormous short term challenges. Big organisations, who are thrown into crisis and have to work wholly differently tend to really struggle.

I mean lets look at ourselves and Liverpool. When they had maybe 18 months of having to operate as a selling club at the back end of last decade, they went from almost winning the league to sitting in the bottom 3. Part of this is undoubtedly that it;s hard to work on a selling basis, but more of it is that culturally it was very foreign to their fanbase and club. We had probably operated like that for 15 years and had become quite proficient at it and resilient to it.

If we don't wish to be partisan, look how we operated in the late 80's and early 90's. Essentially not being one of the big buys saw our performance fall off a cliff. Title winners to within 10 minutes of relegation in 7 years.

For Everton, put simply there are going to be far less buyers this summer. If you are a club that has to sell (and there are plenty) suddenly you have to consider different buyers at much lower prices. If Moshiri was to underpin spending again, akin to his previous 4 summers (where we spend maybe £50-£80m net) this will suddenly go an awful lot further.

There are a lot of ifs in there. While it would be illogical for Moshiri to choose this summer to turn the tap off, he may well done. There are some assumptions of course, but if they are true, we will see a different calibre of player linked. I also think, for some of the younger players we've targeted but haven't always been able to close on, we may start to close deals.

 

[Nymzee]

I think we have to understand that a recession, and particularly one as sharp and dramatic as this re-writes most of the existing rules that existed before. It will catch teams out. It doesn't mean they can't re-group in the medium term if they make lots of good decisions, but there are enormous short term challenges. Big organisations, who are thrown into crisis and have to work wholly differently tend to really struggle.

I mean lets look at ourselves and Liverpool. When they had maybe 18 months of having to operate as a selling club at the back end of last decade, they went from almost winning the league to sitting in the bottom 3. Part of this is undoubtedly that it;s hard to work on a selling basis, but more of it is that culturally it was very foreign to their fanbase and club. We had probably operated like that for 15 years and had become quite proficient at it and resilient to it.

If we don't wish to be partisan, look how we operated in the late 80's and early 90's. Essentially not being one of the big buys saw our performance fall off a cliff. Title winners to within 10 minutes of relegation in 7 years.

For Everton, put simply there are going to be far less buyers this summer. If you are a club that has to sell (and there are plenty) suddenly you have to consider different buyers at much lower prices. If Moshiri was to underpin spending again, akin to his previous 4 summers (where we spend maybe £50-£80m net) this will suddenly go an awful lot further.

There are a lot of ifs in there. While it would be illogical for Moshiri to choose this summer to turn the tap off, he may well done. There are some assumptions of course, but if they are true, we will see a different calibre of player linked. I also think, for some of the younger players we've targeted but haven't always been able to close on, we may start to close deals.

Yeh all makes sense to me I just think people are underestimating how much this virus affects all teams including ours. I know being negative in a transfer window is the Everton way of thinking but to me, now more than ever, we just won't have a choice. We couldn't sell our trash to anyone beforehand so we're certainly not going to be able to at the minute even for small fees. With the stadium on the horizon I can see us going down the Spurs/Arsenal route.

 

[catcherintherye]

Yeh all makes sense to me I just think people are underestimating how much this virus affects all teams including ours. I know being negative in a transfer window is the Everton way of thinking but to me, now more than ever, we just won't have a choice. We couldn't sell our trash to anyone beforehand so we're certainly not going to be able to at the minute even for small fees. With the stadium on the horizon I can see us going down the Spurs/Arsenal route.

Yes thats fair. And without a billionaire owner(s) I would be panicking now, essentially worried about the solvency of the club, taking the view we would have to sell multiple of key assets, for massively reduced prices. To tell the truth, we would have negotiated the offer up for Richarlinson in January to 90-100m and actually we'd probably be ok, but we'd have little money.

I would also add, I don't think we just become king predators in the market. I don't think we would see that level of transformation. I suspect there would be two broad consequences. Firstly we may see some bigger name stars, who are a little older and "faded" making the moves (as one consequence for top teams is going to be getting people off the wage bill at any cost) and many of these players have worked with and enjoyed working with Carlo.

Secondly I think we see a continuation of what we do under Brands, but probably have more success with it and see a more quantitative shift. Brands was generally successful in shoving down prices before this crisis, and will likely have a field day in the coming market. I think he again will leave things very late, and really squeeze on fees. This could see outrageous discounts on younger players.This will not be a radical change though, but ultimately we may just see more deals being closed at a higher level, for less money than previously seen.

Thats the other point in this. To a degree we are well set for what the market brings. We have a DOF who has had 2 years, moved a lot of the deadwood out (and we will lose a load more this summer as they are out of contract). We have a DOF who is aware of how to work in a market where people just don't want your players and you can barely give them away. For lots of teams, particularly top teams they are used to Bournemouth ringing them up and offering them 5-10m to take players. That just won't be happening in the same way, so you will have this pool of players, who you may have pencilled in getting x value for, and you're looking at them thinking, crikey, thus far we may only get x/5 or even x/10 for them.

I am an optimist naturally, but I have been pessimistic with Everton for a long time. I was very critical of the Kenwright years and you could see we had no real plan and were continually set up to exploit markets. I've also said, for most of Moshiri's 4 years we've not been that well set up to really beenfit from the market (it had just grown too big for a benefactor to have a real impact). We also didn't have the right structure, the right manager, or the right people in key positions to do so.

There remain problems. For me the chairman and CEO are not strong enough and we don't do well enough on commercial growth. However, theoretically at least we are quite well set to do well in recruitment if it goes to plan. I think we will be pleasantly surprised.

 

[rochdaleblue]

Yes thats fair. And without a billionaire owner(s) I would be panicking now, essentially worried about the solvency of the club, taking the view we would have to sell multiple of key assets, for massively reduced prices. To tell the truth, we would have negotiated the offer up for Richarlinson in January to 90-100m and actually we'd probably be ok, but we'd have little money.

I would also add, I don't think we just become king predators in the market. I don't think we would see that level of transformation. I suspect there would be two broad consequences. Firstly we may see some bigger name stars, who are a little older and "faded" making the moves (as one consequence for top teams is going to be getting people off the wage bill at any cost) and many of these players have worked with and enjoyed working with Carlo.

Secondly I think we see a continuation of what we do under Brands, but probably have more success with it and see a more quantitative shift. Brands was generally successful in shoving down prices before this crisis, and will likely have a field day in the coming market. I think he again will leave things very late, and really squeeze on fees. This could see outrageous discounts on younger players.This will not be a radical change though, but ultimately we may just see more deals being closed at a higher level, for less money than previously seen.

Thats the other point in this. To a degree we are well set for what the market brings. We have a DOF who has had 2 years, moved a lot of the deadwood out (and we will lose a load more this summer as they are out of contract). We have a DOF who is aware of how to work in a market where people just don't want your players and you can barely give them away. For lots of teams, particularly top teams they are used to Bournemouth ringing them up and offering them 5-10m to take players. That just won't be happening in the same way, so you will have this pool of players, who you may have pencilled in getting x value for, and you're looking at them thinking, crikey, thus far we may only get x/5 or even x/10 for them.

I am an optimist naturally, but I have been pessimistic with Everton for a long time. I was very critical of the Kenwright years and you could see we had no real plan and were continually set up to exploit markets. I've also said, for most of Moshiri's 4 years we've not been that well set up to really beenfit from the market (it had just grown too big for a benefactor to have a real impact). We also didn't have the right structure, the right manager, or the right people in key positions to do so.

There remain problems. For me the chairman and CEO are not strong enough and we don't do well enough on commercial growth. However, theoretically at least we are quite well set to do well in recruitment if it goes to plan. I think we will be pleasantly surprised.

The top 6 are so far ahead of us commercially it’s going to be difficult to bridge the gap. We don’t have european football either so there is only a ceiling as to what we earn commercially. We are lucky to have Usmanov with his sponsership of Finch Farm and more then likely sponsership of the shirt. However it is only when we get to Bramley Moore were will we increase our commercial income significantly.

 

[mahermi1]

The top 6 are so far ahead of us commercially it’s going to be difficult to bridge the gap. We don’t have european football either so there is only a ceiling as to what we earn commercially. We are lucky to have Usmanov with his sponsership of Finch Farm and more then likely sponsership of the shirt. However it is only when we get to Bramley Moore were will we increase our commercial income significantly.

I highly doubt anyone will have European football next year.

 

[mccole]

I think we have targets lined up but with the pending finish of the season we have a delay.

We have outgoings players on big weekly deals plus the additional revenue from new kit manufacturers and sponsors.

So hopefully with the current climate as it is negotiations will more realistic than previous windows