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I think we will stay up..

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Jamalio Danubio DiCanio said:
Absolutely no chance.

More likely to finish 14th or 15th than finish bottom.

32-34 points will probably end up being enough to stay up. 12 games to get 10-12 points minimum. Even W2 D4 L6 gets 10 points.

No matter how bad the current results are, a couple of positive results completely changes the complexion of the relegation battle. Brentford are a very recent example of that. 2 wins on the bounce has put Brentford in a position where 5 points from the last 9 games almost certainly keeps them up.
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We're 9 off 14th (Newcastle, who are winning games) and 8 off 15th (Brentford). We're 5 off the bottom.

Please explain how a team who have picked up 6 points since October are suddenly going to pick up 8 or 9 (whilst Newcastle and Brentford also don't pick up a single point). The delusion from some sections of our fanbase is going to hit them hard. We're much more likely to finish bottom than 14th/15th. I genuinely can't see where a win or even a draw is coming from.
 
cjuk87 said:
We're 9 off 14th (Newcastle, who are winning games) and 8 off 15th (Brentford). We're 5 off the bottom.

Please explain how a team who have picked up 6 points since October are suddenly going to pick up 8 or 9 (whilst Newcastle and Brentford also don't pick up a single point). The delusion from some sections of our fanbase is going to hit them hard. We're much more likely to finish bottom than 14th/15th. I genuinely can't see where a win or even a draw is coming from.
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Brentford have a tough run of games coming up. Can see them picking up minimal points over the next 5 or 6 games.

I don't necessarily think 14th or 15th is hugely realistic. In the same way coming bottom isn't. Are Norwich even going to get another 5 more points? Think they have 9 points from the last 17 games.

Realistically I think 16th or 17th place is most likely. Potentially 18th or 19th but lower odds. I just don't see how bottom is realistic and that's what I was commenting on rather than saying 14th or 15th are achievable targets.
 
T LEAFE said:
Time for positive thoughts.
Lots of games to go
We are Everton
The players will fight for their and our lives
We are too good to go down
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Thank you for the positive vibes.
Monday is always depressing after a defeat, but this day was probably one of the lowest I've felt about Everton in a very long time.
Having said that, there's always a glimmer of hope.
Anything can happen in a game, and we still have a number to play.
We are due some good luck for a change.
A dubious VAR decision that actually goes our way.
A kind wind assisted goal.
A lucky bounce.
An honest ref.
PL season prematurely ending due to nuclear war with Russia, (seems the most likely in the list).
Bottom line, I'm going to keep my hopes up until it is mathematically decided (or the world ends).
 
T LEAFE said:
Time for positive thoughts.
Lots of games to go
We are Everton
The players will fight for their and our lives
We are too good to go down
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not seeing that fight tbh
squaring up to opponents at HT whistle and getting 2 stupid yellow cards doesn't count
winning 50/50s is the fight and we lost 70/30s to a much more spirited wolves team all game
I'm still hopeful we nick a few points and the 3 below continue to be very beatable but I just don't see the 7th highest wage bill squad giving more than 20th in fighting spirit. We need luck
I reckon a lot of our players have already instructed their agents to sound out options if relegated
 

cjuk87 said:
We're 9 off 14th (Newcastle, who are winning games) and 8 off 15th (Brentford). We're 5 off the bottom.

Please explain how a team who have picked up 6 points since October are suddenly going to pick up 8 or 9 (whilst Newcastle and Brentford also don't pick up a single point). The delusion from some sections of our fanbase is going to hit them hard. We're much more likely to finish bottom than 14th/15th. I genuinely can't see where a win or even a draw is coming from.
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Exactly! I'd bite your hand off for 17th on goal difference
With a few minutes to go v Brentford, Burnley were above us and nearly scored for the win. Luckily Brentford scored a winner but it could easily have gone the other way. This is going to the wire and we need luck like that. Worrying about Burnley v Brentford matches is not how I imagined this season going smh but here we are
 
TGW89 said:
If we had a Southall, Watson or Reid - and a man with the consistency of Sharpy... even just two of them, I'd probably agree.

Instead of Reid and Sharp we have...

1_daviesdcl.jpg


Get it in your skull mate. We are going down. There is not one player on that pitch losing sleep over the long-term future of EFC.
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I think Tony Gordon and Richarlison care mate.
 
APN_EFC said:
'i thought we would stay up' - before the Man City game I was hoping for this to help us reach 37 points, a sort of 'safe points total' (see below) . We needed an extra 15 points I thought, but maybe with the others so bad, we might only need 35.
In the middle there, I was hoping for a run of 6 games unbeaten.
** = really tough and unrealistic but can't see where else points are coming from.

  • Man City - home L good result that we didn't get battered.
  • Spurs - away L got battered in this one instead
  • Wolves - home D / Actual result L

    Update: we're -1 on my hopeful plan. 36 should still do it but we still need a 5 match unbeaten run in my opinion as these are the 'easier' games, and somehow we need to get D's against worse teams than Wolves.

  • Newcastle - home W **
  • Watford - away D**
  • West Ham - away D**
  • Man U - home D
  • Palace - home W **

    Imagine if 5 points out of the last 7 games still keeps us safe. Wow. But that's all I think we can get.

  • RS - away L
  • Chelsea - home D**
  • Leicester - away L
  • Brentford - home W
  • Arsenal - away L
  • Burnley - away L
  • Leicester - home D

But who's gonna score goals for us? Who is our leader on the pitch who can pick us up? who can boss the midfield to help us scrap and fight, and then shout inspiration to our players? This is the main problem - lack of leaders, and we need them desperately in a relegation fight.
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Turning these 2 to wins could be invaluable
 

Petit said:
Beat Newcastle and the mood will feel very different.

One thing I will say, there is no chance we’ll lose every away game as many think.
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Agreed.

It's worrying, of course, VERY worrying. But the mood is all wrong on this forum. It's like they've seen Dont Look Up and there's an inevitability about this existential threat.

Those teams below us are rubbish. They'll struggle to pass us and we have a game or three in hand on them. And Leeds are rubbish too. We have 3 games in hand on them and they have a tough run in.

It's 3 from 5 and IMO Watford and Norwich will occupy two of those spots.

Beat Newcastle and get 3 points and it will be a huge moment.
 
davek said:
Agreed.

It's worrying, of course, VERY worrying. But the mood is all wrong on this forum. It's like they've seen Dont Look Up and there's an inevitability about this existential threat.

Those teams below us are rubbish. They'll struggle to pass us and we have a game or three in hand on them. And Leeds are rubbish too. We have 3 games in hand on them and they have a tough run in.

It's 3 from 5 and IMO Watford and Norwich will occupy two of those spots.

Beat Newcastle and get 3 points and it will be a huge moment.
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Conversely if we lose to Newcastle, our following four games are West Ham away, Utd at home, Mordor away Chelsea at home. I can’t see us getting any points out of those four games.
 
Bluestar said:
Conversely if we lose to Newcastle, our following four games are West Ham away, Utd at home, Mordor away Chelsea at home. I can’t see us getting any points out of those four games.
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All those in this relegation struggle have their tough fixtures.

I have to say though that if I were a Leeds fan Ild be nervous that though they have a few points on us we have the games to reel them in. Obvioulsy points on the board are preferable, but mathematically this really is still in Everton's hands...and that goes for the rest of them down there.
 

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