2023/24 Kevin Thelwell

[Moomin]

Can't afford to sack him.

Same with Dyche.

We need a takeover before January or more outs in that window.

 

[Hinchcliffe's Corner]

did you see them against bottom of the entire football league the other night

Probably why people are worried

I'm worried that Neiler isn't tbh!

 

[Neiler]

I'm worried that Neiler isn't tbh!

Part of what we need to do is get the best out of what we have, as the limits are self evident and we wont be or cant throw money at it. Saying people are gash on repeat in just reductive.

Keane and Godfery are two lads who two - three seasons ago under Carlo were part of one of the PLs meanest defense's - both were in and around the England squad. Both have dropped form and confidence looks shot. I think in our situation its old school can we build them back up or systemically support them- well it is because we dont have a choice, but based on what they have done in the past its possible.

Equally with our squad now we cant turn our noses up at Dele or Gomes we are going to need both in Jan in particular.

I'm open minded on all of them to be honest.

 

[Blue peter]

Trouble is that buying for “here and now” is how we got into this mess.

Look at all our “here and now “ transfers

Tuson
Bolasie
Siggy
Walcott
Morgan
Williams

That’s 150m that we spent and we recouped 2m for Morgan.

We have to sign youth players or at least players that can increase in value so that we are able to re invest .

I have no problem with signing players like chamiti , especially as it’s balanced off with the sales of simms, and cannon.

If he makes even a slight impression this season he will become a 20-30m footballer .

I think given the practically non existing cash we had this summer for down payments etc, the fact we have narrowly escaped relegation in the last two seasons, this summer was not the summer to focus part of the tiny budget for the future. We dont know what down payment we had to pay out for him, so we don‘t know whether it stopped us from doing other business for more ‘first team ready‘ players.

I do accept that in every window, where reasonable money is available it is a strategy we should take absolutely, as we need to start earning revenue (and transfer profit) from astute investments, I just don’t think that this was the window to do it in. We are not in a steady enough position at the moment. I didn’t want Che Adams, but if the rumours were true about a fee being agreed, but the terms of a £5m up front payment could not be agreed, I assume it’s because there is no cash, some of which has been spent this summer on a player for the future. Of course, he may be more ‘first team ready’ than Dyche indicated and he may play a bigger part this season. It may also be that Thelwell thinks he is first team ready but Dyche disagrees.

 

[Neiler]

I think given the practically non existing cash we had this summer for down payments etc, the fact we have narrowly escaped relegation in the last two seasons, this summer was not the summer to focus part of the tiny budget for the future. We dont know what down payment we had to pay out for him, so we don‘t know whether it stopped us from doing other business for more ‘first team ready‘ players.

I do accept that in every window, where reasonable money is available it is a strategy we should take absolutely, as we need to start earning revenue (and transfer profit) from astute investments, I just don’t think that this was the window to do it in. We are not in a steady enough position at the moment. I didn’t want Che Adams, but if the rumours were true about a fee being agreed, but the terms of a £5m up front payment could not be agreed, I assume it’s because there is no cash, some of which has been spent this summer on a player for the future. Of course, he may be more ‘first team ready’ than Dyche indicated and he may play a bigger part this season. It may also be that Thelwell thinks he is first team ready but Dyche disagrees.

There are a number of additional variables to this i think mate.

Say we could have signed a 28/29 year old winger yesterday for 25 mill - people would prob be happier today because its another body for the here and now - think of someone like Walcott. But say we said to ourselves we have the money to invest, but we cant get our no 1 in Gnonto and we arent prepared to compromise on quality so we do nothing - is that right or wrong? Curious one. Is doing nothing in the best interests of the club at times. People want their cake and eat it.

Its like Branthwaite everyone wants to play him and let him develop but hen everyone also wants to sign another Centre half.

 

[Zatara]

Oh no, the reasoning you’re giving is fine.

But the quality was there this window, imo, and instead of being able to operate like a normal DOF, we’ve instead had our hands tied and are an injury for Beto, Harrison/McNeil/Branthwaite from being in an incredibly difficult spot.

Numbers wise were pretty much fine. But quality in depth is the issue which I think will begin to be addressed over the next 2 windows.

The reason being, thats when the players we need to shift (to make room for the quality depth) have low book values.

Kean's went to on last seasons books didn't it?

You could throw Gordon's £45mill in there to total it up since January we've sold £100mill and spent £40mill.

The odds we'll survive again with that spend in the league is getting very low.

It's as though he's been told to make money from players and spend a fraction of it.

12-13 players out. And some said the squad was bloated.

I dont think the net spend really matters as much as people are saying it does in this case. Weve 'lost' 14 players but gained 5.

Of the 14 only Iwobi and Mina were first choices. If Branthwaite plays the whole season is that less valuable than Mina's 20 games? Iwobi im happy to see 'swapped' with Danjuma / Harrison.

As for Kean, cant remember and lazy to look into it

Happy and content with the window to be honest.

Did more than I thought we would to be honest. I would have been happy with a striker and two wingers. I was hoping but not particularly confident of getting quality like Beto and Harrison, Danjuma looks good - but he looks rusty to me and hopefully improves. We knew where we short, up front and in wide forward areas - we've improved that.

Flipping:

Mapauy - Beto
Iwobi - Harrison
Simms - Chemitit
Townsend - Danjuma
Vinagre - Young

Is decent incremental improvement and balances the squad, thats what i asked for.

Some of the outs were outstanding, millstones around the clubs neck are gone from a financial and playing point of view. Loosing Mina and Iwobi alone made/saved the £46 million alone. Losing the likes of Davies, Coady, Maupay adnd Townsend, Gbamin, Holgate who contributed or impacted very little really cuts costs - we often talk about our 90% wage to turnover ratio or our annual losses of 100 mill + that lmit it so much - well some of the main deadwood cuprits have been shifted. Lastly you need to look at the utilastion of the academy as a resource and its assets in creating revenue - this is a model the likes of City and Chelsea use to absolutes beast other lcubs financially but more importantly comply with FFP- for the first time under any DOF here we have utilizable and raised significant revenue on developing academy products - its a clear strategy and one that should be acknowledged and validated. Simms, Cannon, Niells, Sammuals Smith, Price all brought in fees - in the window before Quirk and Broadhead did. When you accumulate its a significant amount of badly needed money.

Lets be honest, Thelwell has competing needs, he needs to cut costs, bring down our losses, comply with profit and sustainability get rid of dead wood and improve the team - all with no money. In that context hes balanced all of that and done very well - on each of those things i think hes done very very well.

Lastly i want to mention the limits hes working under. The club is in trouble, make no mistake - the first worrying sign of heading toward administration is cashflow problems. We have cashflow problems - heres what happening - up to this point, we could make 100+ million losses every year and Moshiri or Usmanov were happy to write a black cheque to cover them, thats how we kept the light on - ive said it for years we are dependent on Moshriri. This year the money tap has been turned off. There is a reason NSNOW targeted Kenwright as opposed to Moshiri - they know the club cant fund itself without Moshiri - that why i always said he was the lightening rod for Moshiri and NSNOW were colluding with Moshiri. Its become evident in this window - that Moshiri wont be funding any more of our losses and the club will have to raise fund to become self sufficient - that why NSNOW and the acolytes have gone after Moshiri this week in a new departure for them. Its become clear as the window has gone on, hes selling the club and any deals he sanctioned would be on the never, never - get now - pay later after hes sold up and not be here when the cash call falls due. The club is essentially a skip fire.

That is what has happened in the window and its not Thelwell not wanting to recruit players or incompetency its literally the club needs money to be able to pay the electricity bill and not go into administration. So hes working in the most severe limits and adversity in the league.

When you weigh it all up, hes done well in my opinion and i see the skill, logic, coherence and forboddance to make it all happen.

Its a lot more complex then - why didn't he sign a winger, Centre half, full backs or attacking midfielder, its funny people think he didn't want to - who doesn't want more resources in their job to do it optimally.

Solid post. He's done a 6/10 job for me. Thats because:

A: I will give him 1pt more for each of Gomes and Gray if he can sell them to Saudi.

B: Were going to need to do alot of business next two windows due to the out of contract numbers. I think we needed Gnonto and Wharton (or similar profiles) brought in to alleviate the some pressure going forwards.

Thanks mate. For FFP it wont make a difference mate, it will be amortised the normal way at about 5.6 mill in this year accounts - the worrying thing it point to the cashflow problem at the club - there is no money for the transfer to be given to the other club this year. While it also highlights the dynamic with Moshiri - happy for the deal to be done because he wont be here when the cash call comes. Kev has done well to manage it.

Cetre half is a funny one, we had way to many in my opinion - we had what 6/7 last yer its was an area that needed cutting. I see many people say we need a centre half, because they dont like Keane and Godfrey in the main - but its a game of opinions - both were England internationals not so long ago and i wonder can we get better out of them. JT a given, Branthwaite is an addition we are all hopeful on - people say we need another Centre half - but they also want this lad to be developed and given a chance so start - again that not happening just bringing in another layer of players (like Coady) on existing ones - that a mistake weve made before - i dont think we need more then 4 Centre halfs - as our most competitive that all weve ever had.

I posted similar to the below in the transfer thread:
Next summer we see Coleman and Young out of contract. Also Godfrey, Keane and Holgate all with low book values with 1 yr remaining.

We'd still have Mykolenko, Branthwaite, Tarkowski, Patterson so would see 5 players out (huge wages saved) while needing max of 4 incomings.

A key point that ive posted about today will be the revenues from the new stadium + new broadcast deal -- both kicking off in 2025.

Get through the next two seasons, FFP wont be an issue anymore and the profiles of players should be fewer, higher potential/quality and younger and see higher asset values for less cost.

Improved balance sheet and alot could happen over 2 years. Moshiri may have a second wind if thing open up for him or an investor/buyer would see a vastly more impressive asset.

Whatever it is will still be insane for any normal business, but hopefully more inline with peers.

I know cash flow is an issue for Moshiri, but I can also see this economisation being used to demonstrate newly-found fiscal responsibility ahead of our hearing in October.

Perhaps and a fair comment. More so it helps to trim the fat for 2 seasons to get to 2025 and attract investors/buyers.

Was a great window, until we sold Iwobi.

Which was sensational.

 

[paulf]

Part of what we need to do is get the best out of what we have, as the limits are self evident and we wont be or cant throw money at it. Saying people are gash on repeat in just reductive.

Keane and Godfery are two lads who two - three seasons ago under Carlo were part of one of the PLs meanest defense's - both were in and around the England squad. Both have dropped form and confidence looks shot. I think in our situation its old school can we build them back up or systemically support them- well it is because we dont have a choice, but based on what they have done in the past its possible.

Equally with our squad now we cant turn our noses up at Dele or Gomes we are going to need both in Jan in particular.

I'm open minded on all of them to be honest.

Mate I get you trying to be balanced in what is a complete s..t show. sorry to suggest Keane and Godfrey can turn it around they are both incredibly poor footballers.

 

[Neiler]

Mate I get you trying to be balanced in what is a complete s..t show. sorry to suggest Keane and Godfrey can turn it around they are both incredibly poor footballers.

Lets see mate, we have to work with them now and they are going to part of our season - im not waving the white flag at either.

 

[Dharma]

Grifter

 

[tsubaki]

There are a number of additional variables to this i think mate.

Say we could have signed a 28/29 year old winger yesterday for 25 mill - people would prob be happier today because its another body for the hear and now - think of someone like Walcott. But say we said to ourselves we have the money to invest, but we cant get our no 1 in Gnonto and we arent prepared to compromise on quality so we do nothing - is that right or wrong? Curious one. Is doing nothing in the best interests of the club at times. People want their cake and eat it.

Its like Branthwaite everyone wants to play him and let him develop but hen everyone also wants to sign another Centre half.

I think its hard to look at the recent history of the club and not think doing nothing is probably in the best interests of the club most of the time.

The vast majority of dross in the squad over the past few years came from that sort of "get bodies in" signing, and ended up not only costing money themselves but also blocked youth players who with a bit of exposure could be sold as well. I've said this before but that Thelwell doesn't do that is one of the things I like most about him.

 

[Tel001]

I think given the practically non existing cash we had this summer for down payments etc, the fact we have narrowly escaped relegation in the last two seasons, this summer was not the summer to focus part of the tiny budget for the future. We dont know what down payment we had to pay out for him, so we don‘t know whether it stopped us from doing other business for more ‘first team ready‘ players.

I do accept that in every window, where reasonable money is available it is a strategy we should take absolutely, as we need to start earning revenue (and transfer profit) from astute investments, I just don’t think that this was the window to do it in. We are not in a steady enough position at the moment. I didn’t want Che Adams, but if the rumours were true about a fee being agreed, but the terms of a £5m up front payment could not be agreed, I assume it’s because there is no cash, some of which has been spent this summer on a player for the future. Of course, he may be more ‘first team ready’ than Dyche indicated and he may play a bigger part this season. It may also be that Thelwell thinks he is first team ready but Dyche disagrees.

But signing gash like che adams is why we are where we are , a 27 year old who is gash and who’s value will go down… I’d rather have kept maupay and saved all the messing about .

I get what you’re saying but if you keep doing the same things then you can expect the same results .

The fact that Luton, sheff utd are in this league means that we only have to find one more club to finish above …

I know that’s a really crap target to have but ot is where we are right now .

The fact we have an enquiry in October also means that we had to watch our money

 

[Zatara]

Part of what we need to do is get the best out of what we have, as the limits are self evident and we wont be or cant throw money at it. Saying people are gash on repeat in just reductive.

Keane and Godfery are two lads who two - three seasons ago under Carlo were part of one of the PLs meanest defense's - both were in and around the England squad. Both have dropped form and confidence looks shot. I think in our situation its old school can we build them back up or systemically support them- well it is because we dont have a choice, but based on what they have done in the past its possible.

Equally with our squad now we cant turn our noses up at Dele or Gomes we are going to need both in Jan in particular.

I'm open minded on all of them to be honest.

If we saw Coleman and Youngs' contracts expire and sold Godfrey, Keane and Holgate for low fees.

What would you think the overall 'savings' would be for the 5 (as a total wage + transfer total pot) bearing in mind their book values ?

I think given the practically non existing cash we had this summer for down payments etc, the fact we have narrowly escaped relegation in the last two seasons, this summer was not the summer to focus part of the tiny budget for the future. We dont know what down payment we had to pay out for him, so we don‘t know whether it stopped us from doing other business for more ‘first team ready‘ players.

I do accept that in every window, where reasonable money is available it is a strategy we should take absolutely, as we need to start earning revenue (and transfer profit) from astute investments, I just don’t think that this was the window to do it in. We are not in a steady enough position at the moment. I didn’t want Che Adams, but if the rumours were true about a fee being agreed, but the terms of a £5m up front payment could not be agreed, I assume it’s because there is no cash, some of which has been spent this summer on a player for the future. Of course, he may be more ‘first team ready’ than Dyche indicated and he may play a bigger part this season. It may also be that Thelwell thinks he is first team ready but Dyche disagrees.

Where would you see us as weaker than last season?

There are a number of additional variables to this i think mate.

Say we could have signed a 28/29 year old winger yesterday for 25 mill - people would prob be happier today because its another body for the hear and now - think of someone like Walcott. But say we said to ourselves we have the money to invest, but we cant get our no 1 in Gnonto and we arent prepared to compromise on quality so we do nothing - is that right or wrong? Curious one. Is doing nothing in the best interests of the club at times. People want their cake and eat it.

Its like Branthwaite everyone wants to play him and let him develop but hen everyone also wants to sign another Centre half.

Its just a numbers game but it has to allow for the high potential players to develop. Its the difference of having e.g £15mil asset in Branthwaite and perhaps a £60mil+ asset.

 

[Neiler]

I think its hard to look at the recent history of the club and not think doing nothing is probably in the best interests of the club most of the time.

The vast majority of dross in the squad over the past few years came from that sort of "get bodies in" signing, and ended up not only costing money themselves but also blocked youth players who with a bit of exposure could be sold as well. I've said this before but that Thelwell doesn't do that is one of the things I like most about him.

We're a Gomes away from ground Zero of squad building mate, the anti virus is about 90% complete.

I agree i see logic in much of what Thelwell does. Though admittedly hes working in clear limits with sub optimal resources.

If we take January. Say he blinked and we brought in say Tall Paul for 20 mill in Jan - like we were desperate to do - would we have singed Beto, this summer. Maybe yesterday we could have signed Cornet, but said you know what - lets see where Leeds are in January and maybe we get Gnonto instead in 16 weeks.....

The Centre half are a case in point we have four - last year we had six or seven - we had six last year and still brought in Coady - we cant keep building layer on layer, i think part of what Thelwell is good at is saying no and holding the tension and taking the pelters - thats what makes a leader tbh.

 

[Blue peter]

There are a number of additional variables to this i think mate.

Say we could have signed a 28/29 year old winger yesterday for 25 mill - people would prob be happier today because its another body for the here and now - think of someone like Walcott. But say we said to ourselves we have the money to invest, but we cant get our no 1 in Gnonto and we arent prepared to compromise on quality so we do nothing - is that right or wrong? Curious one. Is doing nothing in the best interests of the club at times. People want their cake and eat it.

Its like Branthwaite everyone wants to play him and let him develop but hen everyone also wants to sign another Centre half.

I think the distinction between buying players for the here and now, and quality players or not is being conflated mate. If the quality players that improve the team, in the positions we need are not available (which in itself would be odd given it’s a big market out there) then I agree we should not buy for the sake of it. It’s better to keep our powder dry for the January window or explore the loan market.

I guess the question is do you spend for the sake of it and turn your attention to bringing in players with potential who could improve the team in the future. I would argue no, if buying that player (and only if) impacts on our ability to explore loans, or use the January transfer window.

I find it really odd, as others have pointed out that we haven’t even fully explored the loan market which would take up our full quota. Is it possible this is because loan payments are required and we did not have the money? Aside from Beto (and obviously the jury is out on him) this has been a poor window, which is a shocker for a team who has played 3 (2 at home against average opposition) lost 3 and scored no goals. Today is such a vitally important game….I think anything less than a win spells real trouble (and we all know what we are like against newly promoted teams).

 

[ForeverBlue92]

We're a Gomes away from ground Zero of squad building mate, the anti virus is about 90% complete.

I agree i see logic in much of what Thelwell does. Though admittedly hes working in clear limits with sub optimal resources.

If we take January. Say he blinked and we brought in say Tall Paul for 20 mill in Jan - like we were desperate to do - would we have singed Beto, this summer. Maybe yesterday we could have signed Cornet, but said you know what - lets see where Leeds are in January and maybe we get Gnonto instead in 16 weeks.....

The Centre half are a case in point we have four - last year we had six or seven - we had six last year and still brought in Coady - we cant keep building layer on layer, i think part of what Thelwell is good at is saying no and holding the tension and taking the pelters - thats what makes a leader tbh.

Thelwell reminds FB92 a lot of himself on this forum. Unappreciated, underrated, same kind of haters who refuse to give either any credit - A convenient scapegoat for the circus clowns around them if you will.

I agree with your stance on that we no longer seem to want to panic buy - I imagine we offered £25m for Gnonto and walked away when the price got silly. Long term I would like to see us pay whats needed to get a top talent in the door... but with the stadium build and FFP issues I understand why at present time its not feasible in doing so.