Newcastle Utd (and Viz)

[PM123]

You’re not gonna win the league

NA NA NA NA NA !!!!

You may be right; remains to be seen, so don't stress about it...

 

[Disgruntledgoat]

You can't really say a team is likely to be relegated in August lol. Newcastle are 2 points behind Everton as things stand, so that makes you pretty much wrong by my definition of wrong.

Arguing pointless semantics...

Only posts about other teams or in defence of our rivals...

Dormant account who's activity ramped up in the last week or so...

Tell me, do you have any experience in recruitment or stewarding?

 

[The Fish]

I don't mind Newcastle, but I do think there's a fair bit of arrogance. Over the last 13 seasons you've finished above us once (and for most of those seasons it was pre-Moshiri). We've also seen your away attendance at Goodison drop to just taking the small allocation. That being said, in general you are well supported.

I think the issue with Staveley makes very little sense, if you view it from the axis they are going to plunge lots of money in. You just pay the broker their fee and move on. I don't believe they had a comparable share arrangement at City. If she's bought out by the end of the summer fine, but if that remains I'd be a bit more concerned.

It makes far more sense if Staveley was actually running the club and she;s saucing what money she can from different people. She has a tacit commitment from aspects of the Saudi fund to spend some money, but by no means the amount widely speculated. We will see though.

Dunno if Newcastle fans are arrogant, but I suppose that is subjective. If we think we "should" be midtable or pushing for a European spot and you don't, you may view it as arrogant. Similarly, if we're represented in the media by the dolts that're interviewed outside the ground by Sky cameras, you'll get a distorted view of the fanbase, as is the case with every club.

I agree with this. There's a lot of unusual things about it. Giving out value to 2 different parties. The time it's taken to do the idea (over years now). Haggling over 40 million quid and potentially putting Newcastle into the threat of relegation in the process etc.

This makes no sense if you are looking to copy City. It makes a lot of sense if you are looking to add something to a portfolio and have a tentative interest.

I mean is it typical for brokers to acquire 10% of a company they buy if you plan to radically overhaul, invest and improve the share price of said company?

thing is, much has been made of the timescale, and the negotiations, as if Ashley is a) a willing seller, b) not a penny pinching badlad. He was quoted as saying "What's £10m to these people", as if he's not himself a ridiculously wealthy man. The rich won't stay rich very long if they don't care about millions of pounds.

The buyers didn't put Newcastle at the risk of relegation, Ashley did. And we've been relegated twice under his watch because he either demanded too much for us, or ruined a deal by showing the buyers disrespet (it's widely reported that Mansour or his representatives were due to meet with Ashley, but he turned up late, dishevelled and rude, so they lost whatever interest they had in Newcastle).

I think you need to either go back and read what I've put, or stop twisting what I've said.

The point I made really relates to the start of this season. The consortium have been negotiating for over a year over £40m quid it seems. Newcastle in August were an enormous risk for relegation, so why chance it?

The reality is, Benitez left a horrendous squad, despite spending the best part of £200m and really Steve Bruce has begun a rescue job and has reversed the downward trend under Benitez. It's a separate debate.

Lets not conflate though, that when I said Newcastle were a risk of relegation I meant in August, not specifically now. This was a view echoed by many Newcastle supporters.

I think you're being harsh on Benitez there. He's spent a lot of money, but he had to overhaul a team to prepare it for a return to the Premier League, then add to it to try and keep us up, which he did. Bruce has played some of the worst football I've ever seen watching Newcastle and that anecdotal claim is born out by whichever performance metrics you care to trust. We've got more points this season, but the entire league has been weird so I wouldn't praise Bruce too much.

 

[The Fish]

Why would you get rid of a manager that’s doing a better job to bring him back?

As above, Bruce is an awful manager, Benitez is better. If you prefer to revel in bias than exercise rationality then there'll be no convincing you otherwise.

 

[Disgruntledgoat]

As above, Bruce is an awful manager, Benitez is better. If you prefer to revel in bias than exercise rationality then there'll be no convincing you otherwise.

Pah, Benitez has never written a series of football themed crime thrillers.

 

[MikeH72]

As above, Bruce is an awful manager, Benitez is better. If you prefer to revel in bias than exercise rationality then there'll be no convincing you otherwise.

What bias? I’m just looking at the evidence over the course of the season. Bruce had to make do without his first choice striker partnership in Rondon and Perez too. Respect to him.

 

[Kurt.]

You may be right; remains to be seen, so don't stress about it...

No stress here ..... cool as a cucumber.... enjoy next season

 

[The Fish]

Pah, Benitez has never written a series of football themed crime thrillers.

You seen how much they're going for??

What bias? I’m just looking at the evidence over the course of the season. Bruce had to make do without his first choice striker partnership in Rondon and Perez too. Respect to him.

Because you're looking at an incomplete season and dismissing all the other myriad factors.

 

[catcherintherye]

Lol it is not factually a favourable run. Everton have played 7 "non-top 6) matches, post Silva; you can barely get a trend, not extrapolate from that.

That's an extremely narrow criteria you're using there; not teams above or below, but the "traditional big 6" or below, post Silva, which is a handful of games.

As for the underlying numbers of Newcastle, I assume you mean XG, etc? If so, as I'm old, I don't put much stock in that TBH.

Ok, so if we have around 1/2 of the teams to play, but 1/3 of last few seasons top 6 teams to play, can you explain how this is not a favourable run for me?

Why can't you extrapolate from 7 matches, spread over a 4 month period? This is a reasonable section of games.

Xg is one measure. Why do you not put much much truck in it? You can also look at shots on goal, v shots against etc.

 

[catcherintherye]

You can't really say a team is likely to be relegated in August lol. Newcastle are 2 points behind Everton as things stand, so that makes you pretty much wrong by my definition of wrong.

Why can't you say a team is in danger of relegation in August? Most pundits say it. Most fans say it.

Where newcastle are now is irrelevant, as I don't think they are at risk of relegation this season, my point was in relation to the summer.

Why do you think you are in a position, the guy who openly states he won't acknowledge Xg as a method to start dictating the terms of a debate, and preventing comment on who people think may or may not be relegated? You can have a different viewpoint, but you're not some oracle who outlines the framework of such a debate, are you?

I'll try to simplify for your benefit though, in the summer Newcastle were widely tipped for relegation. If you were serious about investing large sums of money in the club it would seen odd you would become obsessed over £40m in a trading price, andrisk the hundreds of millions relegation could cost.

 

[PM123]

No stress here ..... cool as a cucumber.... enjoy next season

Ok, so if we have around 1/2 of the teams to play, but 1/3 of last few seasons top 6 teams to play, can you explain how this is not a favourable run for me?

Why can't you extrapolate from 7 matches, spread over a 4 month period? This is a reasonable section of games.

Xg is one measure. Why do you not put much much truck in it? You can also look at shots on goal, v shots against etc.

You play 5 teams above you, 3 below; favourable, by my reckoning, would be playing 3 above you & 5 below. Therefore, not a particularly favourable run.

 

[PM123]

No stress here ..... cool as a cucumber.... enjoy next season

assuming there is one..

 

[catcherintherye]

Dunno if Newcastle fans are arrogant, but I suppose that is subjective. If we think we "should" be midtable or pushing for a European spot and you don't, you may view it as arrogant. Similarly, if we're represented in the media by the dolts that're interviewed outside the ground by Sky cameras, you'll get a distorted view of the fanbase, as is the case with every club.



thing is, much has been made of the timescale, and the negotiations, as if Ashley is a) a willing seller, b) not a penny pinching badlad. He was quoted as saying "What's £10m to these people", as if he's not himself a ridiculously wealthy man. The rich won't stay rich very long if they don't care about millions of pounds.

The buyers didn't put Newcastle at the risk of relegation, Ashley did. And we've been relegated twice under his watch because he either demanded too much for us, or ruined a deal by showing the buyers disrespet (it's widely reported that Mansour or his representatives were due to meet with Ashley, but he turned up late, dishevelled and rude, so they lost whatever interest they had in Newcastle).


I think you're being harsh on Benitez there. He's spent a lot of money, but he had to overhaul a team to prepare it for a return to the Premier League, then add to it to try and keep us up, which he did. Bruce has played some of the worst football I've ever seen watching Newcastle and that anecdotal claim is born out by whichever performance metrics you care to trust. We've got more points this season, but the entire league has been weird so I wouldn't praise Bruce too much.

I'm just trying to give you a little feedback on what people think. I have no major view on it either way. I don't think you're massively arrogant, there's a few idiots the same as any club. I think you're overview is a perfectly reasonable one.

Well in truth they both did. Look we can debate the rights and wrong of the behaviour. However the haggling over £40m while risking hundreds of millions that would come from relegation is odd. I agree with the premise you don't become rich by not haggling, but is the Saudi's are really interested in a project it's very unlikely they haggle over such fees (especially with the risk of relegation). Likewise it doesn't take the length of time to complete it does. City didn't, Chelsea didn't, Moshiri didn't they just swoop in very quickly.

I think you hit on an astute point though. If they are looking at it as an investment opportunity to make money (which I suspect they are) then yes, you haggle each pound. However this is very different to having the mindset that is essentially philanthropic and will put money in irrespective of a return (as Chelsea, City and to a degree even our owners have).

What I would suggest, is that some money will be made available, but certainly not the figures that are being suggested and they will want a return on the money. It is still probably better for Newcastle than Ashley, but I would urge caution.

I think Benitez has some skills as a manager but is vastly overrated. He seems to spend lots of money on average players, then get in a huff if the money runs out. I agree with you re Bruce and the underlying measures are not good for Newcastle. Maybe you can explain this to @PM123 who seems to struggle with the concept of a side over performing how their general play has been.

 

[catcherintherye]

You play 5 teams above you, 3 below; favourable, by my reckoning, would be playing 3 above you & 5 below. Therefore, not a particularly favourable run.

Ok, we are part way through a season though aren't we? And given we are in the bottom half, it's likely that will, be the case, and as we head into the end point of the season in lots of ways it's harder to play sides struggling with relegation than those in the middle. We actually have few of the top sides, and few of the sides fighting for points.

However, rather than pontificate on form mid season, can you answer the question, how many of the top 6 teams based upon the last completed season have we got to play? Using league tables, especially when they are so close in points, (and sides are above us, essentially because they have played less top 6 sides than us) is an utterly idiotic way to define difficulty of fixtures.

Lets use the objectives measures I've outlined, and provide an answer rather than waffling on about irrelevance.

 

[MikeH72]

You seen how much they're going for??

Because you're looking at an incomplete season and dismissing all the other myriad factors.

I didn’t dismiss anything, I took into account the fact that Bruce lost the two most important players from the previous season. What about the fact he had the board buy an absolute cart horse for him for £40m as well? Someone so bad that he’s had to play centre backs up front for parts of games?